經濟學人-牛市天下：資產價格全面走高引發擔憂

正文翻譯

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The bull market in everything

牛市天下

Asset prices are high across the board. Is it time to worry?

資產價格全面走高，應該感到擔憂嗎？

With ultra-loose monetary policy coming to an end, it is best to tread carefully

隨著超寬鬆貨幣政策走到盡頭，最好保持謹慎

IN HIS classic, 「The Intelligent Investor」, first published in 1949, Benjamin Graham, a Wall Street sage, distilled what he called his secret of sound investment into three words: 「margin of safety」. The price paid for a stock or a bond should allow for human error, bad luck or, indeed, many things going wrong at once. In a troubled world of trade tiffs and nuclear braggadocio, such advice should be especially worth heeding. Yet rarely have so many asset classes—from stocks to bonds to property to bitcoins—exhibited such a sense of invulnerability.

在1949年首次出版的經典著作《聰明的投資者》中，華爾街傳奇人物本傑明?格雷厄姆將穩健投資的秘訣提煉為三個詞：「安全邊際（ margin of safety）」。買入股票或債券的價格應考慮到人為錯誤、糟糕運氣、或多方面同時出錯。在當今充滿貿易摩擦和誇耀核武的世界，這類建議尤為值得關注。然而，包括股票、債券、房地產、比特幣在內，這麼多資產類別表現得刀槍不入實屬罕見。

Dear assets are hardly the product of euphoria. No one would mistake the bloodless run-up in global stockmarkets, credit and property over the past eight years for a reprise of the 「roaring 20s」, or even an echo of the dotcom mania of the late 1990s. Yet only at the peak of those two bubbles has America』s S&P 500 been higher as a multiple of earnings measured over a ten-year cycle. Rarely have creditors demanded so little insurance against default, even on the riskiest 「junk」 bonds. And rarely have property prices around the world towered so high. American house prices have bounced back since the financial crisis and are above their long-term average relative to rents. Those in Britain are well above it. And in Canada and Australia, they are in the stratosphere. Add to this the craze for exotica, such as cryptocurrencies (see Free exchange), and the world is in the throes of a bull market in everything.

昂貴資產並不是樂觀的產物。八年來，全球股市、信貸、房地產無情地拉開帷幕，但無人將此錯當成「興旺的20年代」，乃至90年代末「網路狂潮」的重演。除了兩次泡沫達到頂峰時，美國標準普爾500指數的十年市盈率已達到歷史最高點。債權人需要如此少的違約保險實屬罕見，甚至包括最具風險的「垃圾」債券。全球房價很少漲到這麼高，自金融危機以來，美國房價出現反彈，相對租金高於長期均價，英國房價遠高於均價，加拿大、澳大利亞的房價極高。另外，市場表現出對網路貨幣等新鮮事物的渴望，世界已陷入牛市天下的困境。

Where』s the beef?

問題的實質

Asset-price booms are a source of cheer, but also anxiety. There are two immediate reasons to worry. First, markets have been steadily rising against a backdrop of extraordinarily loose monetary policy. Central banks have kept short-term interest rates close to zero since the financial crisis of 2007-08 and have helped depress long-term rates by purchasing $11trn-worth of government bonds through quantitative easing. Only now are they starting to unwind these policies. The Federal Reserve has raised rates twice this year and will soon start to sell its bondholdings. Other central banks will eventually follow. If today』s asset prices have been propped up by central-bank largesse, its end could prompt a big correction. Second, signs are appearing that fund managers, desperate for higher yields, are becoming increasingly incautious. Consider, for instance, investors』 recent willingness to buy Eurobonds issued by Iraq, Ukraine and Egypt at yields of around 7%.

資產價格上漲令人喜憂參半。使人擔憂的直接原因有兩個：首先，市場在超寬鬆的貨幣政策下持續上漲。2007-08年金融危機以來，央行使短期利率接近零，通過量化寬鬆購買11萬億美元的政府債券，幫助降低長期利率。直到現在，央行才開始解除這些政策。今年美聯儲將利率提高一倍，很快將出售債券，其他央行最終也會效仿。如果央行的寬鬆政策導致了現在資產價格上漲，最終可能迎來大規模調整。其次，有跡象顯示追求高收益的基金經理越來越不謹慎。例如，近期投資者願意購買伊拉克、烏克蘭、埃及發行的歐元債券，收益率在7%左右。

But look carefully at the broader picture, and there is some logic to the ongoing rise in asset prices. In part it is a response to an improving world economy. In the second quarter of this year global GDP grew at its fastest pace since 2010, as a recovery in emerging markets added impetus to longer-standing upswings in Europe and America. As our special report this week argues, emerging-market economies have come out of testing times in far more resilient shape.

但仔細從整體情況來看，資產價格持續上漲有一定道理，在一定程度上是對世界經濟復甦的反應。今年第二季度，全球GDP創下2010年以來最快增速，新興市場復甦進一步刺激了歐洲和美國長期反彈。正如本期的特別報道所言，新興市場經濟體憑藉更強的適應力經受住了考驗。

More significant still is the behaviour of long-term interest rates. They have fallen steadily since the 1980s and remain close to historic lows. And that underpins all sorts of other asset prices (see article). A widespread concern is that the Fed and its peers have grossly distorted bond markets and, by extension, the price of all assets. Warren Buffett, the most famous disciple of Ben Graham, said this week that stocks would look cheap in three years』 time if interest rates were one percentage-point higher, but not if they were three percentage points higher. But if interest rates and bond yields were unjustifiably low, inflation would take off—and puzzlingly it hasn』t. This suggests that factors beyond the realm of monetary policy have been a bigger cause of low long-term rates. The most important is an increase in the desire to save, as ageing populations set aside a larger share of income for retirement. Just as the supply of saving has risen, demand for it has fallen. Stagnant wages and the lower price of investment goods mean companies are flush with cash. All this suggests that interest rates will stay low by historical standards

更重要的還是長期利率的表現。80年代以來利率一直在下降，如今接近歷史最低點，並支撐著所有類別的資產價格。普遍感到擔憂的是，美聯儲和各國央行嚴重扭曲了債券市場，乃至所有的資產價格。沃倫?巴菲特是本傑明?格雷厄姆最得意的門生，本周他說如果利率提高一個百分點，三年內股價將下跌，但提高三個百分點不會這樣。但若利率和債券收益率低至不合理水平，通貨膨脹將會飆升，令人費解的是這並未發生。這表明導致長期低利率的更大因素不是貨幣政策，最重要的是儲蓄意願越來越強，因為老齡化人口將大部分收入用於退休。隨著儲蓄供給的增加，儲蓄需求隨之下降。停滯的工資水平和低廉的投資產品意味著企業資金充裕。所有這些都表明，以歷史標準來衡量，利率將維持在較低水平。

Beware of the bull

警惕牛市

Still the most dangerous, anti-Graham motto of investing is 「this time is different」. It would be daft to assume that asset prices must remain high come what may. Many hazards could derail the economy and financial markets, from a debt crisis in China to an American-led trade war or an outbreak of fighting on the Korean peninsula. And when the next recession comes, policymakers have less fiscal and monetary ammunition to fight it than they had in previous downturns. Prudence therefore suggests caution.

最危險的是，反對格雷厄姆的投資格言是「今非昔比」。無論如何，資產價格必須維持高位，這種想法是愚蠢的。許多風險有可能破壞經濟和金融市場，例如中國債務危機、美國引發的貿易戰爭、朝鮮半島戰爭的爆發。當下次經濟衰退來臨時，決策者可用的財政和貨幣工具將不如上次那麼多，所以應保持謹慎。

One option is for central bankers to raise rates more enthusiastically and less predictably, to jolt financial markets and remind investors that the world is volatile. Yet there are obvious perils with this course. The tightening might prove excessive, tipping economies into recession. And with inflation in most big economies below central bankers』 target, sharply higher rates are hard to square with their mandate.

央行的一個選項是更大幅度提高利率，出其不意的打壓金融市場，提醒投資者世界充滿不穩定性。但該方式存在顯著風險，緊縮有可能過度，使經濟陷入衰退。由於多數經濟大國的通脹水平低於央行目標，所以大幅提高利率難以符合它們的使命。

Instead, caution calls for gradualism. To minimise disruption, the reversal of quantitative easing should be stretched out. The Federal Reserve has set a good precedent by proposing to reduce its bondholdings at a leisurely pace and flagging the change well in advance. When the time comes, its peers should follow suit. Of these, the European Central Bank faces the trickiest challenge, because it has acted as, in effect, the backstop to euro-zone bond markets, a mechanism that otherwise the currency bloc still lacks.

相反，謹慎需要漸進主義。為了盡量減少破壞，應逆轉量化寬鬆政策。美聯儲提出逐漸減持債券，並事先公布變化，這是很好的榜樣，屆時其他央行也應效仿。其中歐洲央行面臨最嚴峻的挑戰，因為它實際上為歐元區債券市場提供擔保，而歐元區仍缺乏這種機制。

But the main safety valve lies elsewhere, with banks and investors. Bitter experience has shown that debt-funded assets can magnify losses, causing financial crises. For this reason banks must be able to withstand any reversal of today』s high asset prices and low defaults. That means raising bank capital in places where it is too low, especially the euro zone, and not backsliding on strenuous 「stress tests」 as America』s Treasury proposes. In the end, however, there may be no escape for investors from the low future returns and even losses that high asset prices imply. They and regulators should take a leaf out of 「The intelligent Investor」, and make sure that they have a margin of safety.

但主要的安全屏障在於銀行和投資者。慘痛經驗表明債務資產會擴大損失，導致金融危機。因此，銀行必須能夠承受當今高資產價格和低違約率發生逆轉的情況，這意味著利率過低的地區，尤其是歐元區應提高銀行資本，不要採取美國財政部提出的劇烈「壓力測試」。但是，投資者最終可能無法避免較低的未來收益，乃至高資產價格帶來的損失。投資者和監管者應讀一讀《聰明的投資者》，確保擁有安全邊際。

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