火箭老闆評語引熱議：美式橄欖球會逐漸衰落，籃球會蓬勃發展？

火箭老闆評語引熱議：美式橄欖球會逐漸衰落，籃球會蓬勃發展？

[MacMahon] Tillman Fertitta: "I would have been scared to pay $2.2 billion for an NFL franchise at this point. ... The NBA is where it"s at."

Tillman Fertitta（火箭新任老闆）：「就現在NFL的行情，讓我掏22億美元買下一支球隊我是絕對要衡量再三的。但是NBA的前進方向很對路。」

[–][HOU] Moochie Norrisnonetimeaccount 1253 指標 10小時前

makes sense. the nfl is pretty tapped out when it comes to growth. it"s not a sport that has translated well outside our borders. they"ve got nowhere left to expand stateside. as it is the thursday night games feel pretty unnecessary with their (usual) sub-standard play and enhanced injury risk.

the nba, on the other hand, keeps eating global market share like no other sport. it"s young, it"s cool, it creates styles, it"s social media friendly, and the pace is great for our add/highlights-instantly-on-devices world.

有理。NFL的上升空間其實已經被鎖死了，出了美國基本就沒什麼市場了。而且就從國內來看，NFL也無法再擴大它的版圖了。周四晚的比賽也越來越顯得雞肋，食之無味棄之可惜，通常那天的比賽含金量都不高，而且還有增加了傷病的風險。

而NBA則是在全球範圍內增長速度最快的體育聯盟。年輕、酷、引領潮流、適合在社交媒體上推廣，而且NBA的比賽節奏很符合當今世界對高光集錦「現產現銷」的需求。

[–]ThePhoenixJ 99 指標 9小時前

[the NFL is] not a sport that has translated well outside our borders

I read an interesting article that said that the NFL will always struggle outside of the US largely because of the cost of kids programs. If you want a kid"s soccer league in Africa or South America, you just need a ball and some poles. Basketball is a step up needing an actual hoop and somewhat needing a slab. Football is super expensive to outfit a ton of kids with their own pads, gear, helmets, etc.

No gear > limited kids playing it > limited generations growing up interested in it > limited interest outside the US

「出了美國基本就沒什麼市場了」

我讀到過一篇討論這點的很有意思的文章，其中提到NFL永遠不會在美國以外取得巨大的成功，其主要原因就是兒童橄欖球項目花費太多太多了。如果你想在非洲或南美建立一個兒童足球聯盟，你只需要一個球和一些旗杆就行。籃球要求相對高一點，需要籃筐和一片場地。然而橄欖球實在太貴了，要為幾十個孩子準備護具和頭盔什麼的。

沒裝備就限制了孩子的參與度，從而就限制了在成長過程中一直熱愛橄欖球的球迷人數，最終也限制了美國以外民眾對橄欖球的興趣。

[–]Lakers BandwagonDongsquad420BlazeIt 597 指標 10小時前

I"ve been watching way more basketball the last few years than football. There"s more games, it"s more fun, people aren"t ruining their brains. It"s just a better product. It"ll never overtake rugby in the rest of the world so it"s audience can really only get smaller.

過去幾年，我看的籃球要比橄欖球多得多。NBA比賽更多，樂趣更多，而且球員們也不再透支自己的腦部健康。總的來講，NBA就是一款更好的產品。NFL永遠不會在美國以外的地區取代英式橄欖球，所以它的受眾只會越來越少。

[–][HOU] Moochie Norrisnonetimeaccount 281 指標 10小時前

the tv experience is so much better too. red zone channel is the best thing on tv, but watching one football game by itself is boring compared to an nba game. too slow, too many commercials, too many injuries, too many pentalties/reviews breaking the action. it"s just an inferior product on every level.

在電視直播體驗上，NBA也好得多。Red zone頻道是現在最好的體育直播頻道，但是光從一場比賽的體驗來看，NFL跟NBA相比太無聊了。節奏太慢，廣告太多，傷病也太多，還有各種罰踢和判罰審議打斷比賽的進程。

[–]pelicanpun 201 指標 10小時前

errrr nba is my jam above all but the "too many penalties/reviews breaking the action" definitely feels more a problem in the nba than the nfl.

額我最喜歡NBA，但我不敢fnk同你說的最後一點，在NBA這個問題絕對更嚴重。

[–]Wolves Bandwagonuknoiballlikeerryday 176 指標 9小時前

While that"s true, fouls in the NBA don"t necessarily take that long to correct for. Just passing the ball in on a turnover is much shorter than resetting an entire NFL possession.

Then again, FT"s at the end of a game can really fucking drag.

你說的有理，但是NBA的犯規不需要花太多時間來修正。一方失誤後直接發界外球交換球權就行了，而NFL還需要重新排兵布陣，那時間花的太久了。

不過，NBA比賽最後時刻的罰球大戰確實能將比賽拖得很墨跡。

[–]BucksConcreteRomantic 55 指標 10小時前

Football has an image problem of the health risks for its players. Basketball does not. That fact alone validates Fertitta"s statement.

橄欖球在參與球員的健康隱患問題上給大眾的印象很不好。籃球則沒有這個問題。就這一條就足夠支撐主樓Fertitta的話了。

[–]New Jersey Netswafflesnsyrup 79 指標 9小時前

Football has an actual problem with the health risks

不是形象的問題，橄欖球的健康問題是切實存在的。

[–]Knicksweeniehut_general 62 指標 10小時前

totally agree, and the NBA has way more marketable stars

完全同意，而且NBA受歡迎的球星多得多。

[–][HOU] Moochie Norrisnonetimeaccount 90 指標 10小時前

credit to david stern who realized a long time ago that the league needs to be star driven. the nfl has tried forever to be team driven. it"s like they don"t want you to know anything about your favorite player.

在這裡不得不給大衛-斯特恩點個贊，他很早以前就意識到NBA需要由球星主導，而NFL這麼長時間還堅持認為聯盟應該由球隊主導。就好像他們根本就不想球迷去了解自己最喜歡的球員。

[–][DAL] Steve NashSxeRpw 154 指標 10小時前

Football is pretty much only American. Basketball is international and growing a lot all over the world

美式橄欖球基本上就是美國人自己玩的東西。而籃球國際化程度高，而且還在不斷增長。

[–]Bullswjbc 97 指標 11小時前

He just bought an NBA team in Texas. I"m not so sure Texans agree.

額，Fertitta可是剛在德州買了一支球隊啊，我不認為休斯頓德州人（NFL球隊）同意他說的話。

[–]Clippers BandwagonMetta_wool_fleece 143 指標 10小時前*

He also bought a the team with the highest global following. The Chinese probably agree

你沒說錯，但不要忘了Fertitta買的那支德州球隊也是全球球迷最多的球隊。中國人同意就行唄。

[–][SEA] Rashard LewisxRyuzakii 421 指標 11小時前

Coming from someone who wrote a 23 page paper on CTE, The NFL will not exist in the next 30 years.

我寫了一篇長達23頁的關於慢性創傷性腦病[譯註1]的論文，話放在這：30年後NFL將不復存在。

[譯註1] CTE是一種腦部疾病，由多次腦震蕩引起，會導致記憶力減退、抑鬱症、痴獃等癥狀，而由於缺少臨床數據，這種疾病通常要到球員死後才能確診。

[–]Rocketshtownnucca 351 指標 10小時前

The minute they can diagnose it in living people it all comes to a halt.

只要醫學能在活人的身上檢驗出這種疾病，NFL就玩完了。

[–]Clippers BandwagonMetta_wool_fleece 187 指標 10小時前

They"re working on identifying the biomarkers now. I"ve been following as my livelihood is predominantly based on football players. I give it 2-3 years before they can diagnose the living with CTE

現代醫學正在研究如何識別CTE的生物標誌。我一直在關注這方面的研究進展，因為橄欖球運動員基本上就算是我的衣食父母。我覺得，在兩到三年內，醫學研究者們就能在活人身上診斷出CTE。

[–]Heatspritehead 95 指標 8小時前

My question is, what will the NFL do to sabotage, undermine, or distract from this research, because there is no way they will just disappear into the night.

我的問題是，NFL會用什麼樣的手段來陷害、詆毀或干擾研究。因為這種研究成果一旦發布就不會悄然消失。

[–]76ersTurence 28 指標 8小時前

As soon as it can be diagnosed in the living, the lawsuits will smash them in the face so hard the NFL will go defunct in a decade. Not to mention the inevitable work stoppage in 2021.

只要在活人身上發現CTE，各種法律訴訟就會撲面而來，NFL在十年內就能被告破產。更別說2021年不可避免的停擺了。

[–]237FIF 43 指標 9小時前

I don"t doubt how serious CTE is, but considering boxing is still a thing people pursue, and we have known the impact of that sport for a long long time, I just feel like there will always be someone willing to risk it.

我知道CTE很嚴重，但考慮到現在人們早就知道拳擊的危害有多大，但還是有很多人追逐拳擊，我就是覺得還是會有人願意冒著受傷的風險去參與危險運動的。

[–]Warriorsjoerilla2 139 指標 10小時前

I don"t buy this whole "NFL is going down; NBA will be the top spot!" narrative. Just look at the revenue data and the gap is still so big it"s kinda unbelievable. Love both tho.

我對於「NFL要完了，NBA會一舉成為最頂尖的體育聯盟」這種輿論並不買賬。看看年收入數據吧，兩者差距還是很大的，所以這種說法比較不靠譜。不過我還是很喜歡兩個運動。

[–][DET] Chauncey Billupsharbaughkhakis2017 75 指標 9小時前

I think the NFL eventually will go down because parents won"t let their kids play football which will dilute the talent pool and make the league have an inferior product
我覺得NFL早晚有一天會出現斷崖式下滑，因為父母們不想要自己的孩子玩橄欖球，那麼有天賦的球員就會越來越少，NFL這項產品質量也會下降。

[–][LAL] Tyronn Luecrunklos 54 指標 9小時前

Not just parents. Youth organizations and schools won』t want to get sued.

不只是父母，青少年機構和學校也不想讓孩子們玩橄欖球，它們可不想惹官司上身。

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