高盛9月31日報告：中國人工智慧的崛起重點還是BAT科大訊飛只是提一下

新聞 10-02

China s Rise in Artificial Intelligence

【小編按：這麼大一個報告，中國人牛逼哄哄說的科大訊飛只是說一下公司，重點還是BAT，說明個啥啊】

Table of contents

AI rises in the East 2

China AI launches: A new national development plan 4

China has made major strides in AI vs. the rest of the world 6

Key drivers of value creation in China AI 9

Talent: China attracting the world』s best minds 9

Data: 44 zettabytes to be exploited in benign regulatory environment 10

Infrastructure 10

Silicon 12

Baidu.com Inc (BIDU): 「All in AI」 13

Scientists and research team at Baidu 13

Data at Baidu 13

AI at Baidu 14

Baidu valued at US$326 by 2020E 19

Alibaba (BABA): A world-leading use case for AI 20

Apsara: AliCloud』s independently developed super computational system 20

Data at Alibaba 23

「Fully loaded 2020 valuation」 24

Tencent (0700.HK): AI significant potential to monetize portfolio 26

AI research at Tencent 26

Data at Tencent 26

Use case of AI at Tencent 27

Implications of AI on Tencent』s business 28

Fully loaded valuation on Tencent 29

Meituan Dianping: World』s largest O2O platform 31

DiDi Chuxing: 4,500TB of data processed daily 35

iFLYTek (002230.SZ): The leading player in China Intelligent Speech 37

Hikvision (002415.SZ): World leader in surveillance through AI lens 38

AI companies in China - the others 39

AI & the productivity challenge: An interview with Andrew Tilton 44

Appendix: What is artificial intelligence

Executive summary: New China to be driven by AI

China』s shift from an industrial to a new consumer economy is well underway. In our view the next stage ? to be a global leader in artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) ? will also be transformational and therefore just as important for investors. The government, the corporates, and their massive data sets are coming together to create value across multiple parts of the economy. In this report we set out the ambitious topdown plans, the factors that make China unique, and the companies making it happen. We expect the building of an 「intelligent economy」 and 「intelligent society」 by 2030 in China -

with a Rmb1trn AI industry (and Rmb10trn relevant industries) targeted by the central government - to drive productivity improvement and GDP growth in the next two decades.

We believe the benefits of AI will initially accrue to companies with unique and substantial data sets, and right-sized resources - BAT (Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent). For these three giants AI should help crystalize the value in the data from their multiple, distinct businesses as well as their associates. The frontier of AI/ML in China, meanwhile, has begun to move on to innovative AI/technology startups that boast the best in class global talent. These

innovators have established core technology competencies, and are pushing AI adoption across various different industries to create new demand. As a result, the battle of the giants in China will extend to AI talent - encouragingly the large audience in a largely homogenous market is a magnet for international talent.

Baidu leads AI research, with cutting-edge capabilities Baidu, among the first movers in AI globally, is leading the technology for speech recognition and autonomous driving. As the first Chinese company to open source its deep

learning platform in 2016 (PaddlePaddle for voice/facial recognition, data analysis, deep learning algorithms, etc.), the company continues to strengthen its AI ecosystem via launching the project Apollo autonomous driving platform in April 2017.

Alibaba, a world-leading use case of AI Alibaba』s gigantic ecommerce platform with a GMV of US$547bn in FY17, is one of the largest use cases for AI. The success of Alibaba』s personalization strategy over its 500mn+ shoppers has demonstrated how ML, when combined with data, is transformative. We

expect Alibaba to continue to leverage its technology via AliCloud to further improve its algorithm and enhance yields across its assets.

Tencent, the biggest social network in China is mastering AI Although relatively a late comer on AI among BAT, Tencent『s Seattle AI lab launch in 2017 signifies both the coming of age of neural networks as well as a shift toward fundamental research in China. We expect AI to improve targeting for Tencent』s advertising and gaming assets, which will raise returns on a generally under-monetized portfolio that includes social network with the highest time spent on the internet, the world』s most successful PC and smartphone games, and the world』s largest online reading and music customer base.

Meituan, the largest O2O platform built by technology

Meituan, one of Tencent』s major investments, is the world』s largest O2O services platform in a US$1.5tn market. With 1PB data generated daily, the platform is disrupting traditional services industry with technology that re-defines online/offline connections, in our view.

This report features interviews with GS Asia Chief Economist Andrew Tilton as well as Meituan and Rokid. It also takes a look at the leading AI companies and the major segments: speech recognition, computer vision, hardware, intelligent machine, healthcare and intelligent driving.

China AI launches: A new national development plan

China has emerged as a major global contender in using AI to drive economic progress.

Both the government and industry have identified AI and machine learning (ML) as the next big areas of innovation. And given that China is often home to unorthodox business models, we believe AI will play a broader role in the economy given the scale of operations of the giants that are adopting AI technology.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) made its first appearance in the China Premier』s work report during the fifth session of the 12th National People』s Congress held on March 5-15, 2017, the annual meeting where China』s senior leaders discuss the major political, economic, and social issues concerning the country』s development. At the fifth session, Premier Mr. Li Keqiang noted in his opening remarks that China will accelerate R&D and commercialization of new emerging sectors such as AI, New Materials, Integrated Circuits,

Bio-pharmaceuticals and 5G.

On July 8, 2017, the State Council published a national development plan on AI, which aims to nurture fundamental research on AI and facilitate adoption of the technology in a wide range of areas including the economy, social welfare, environmental protection and national security. According to the plan, the government will provide greater capital resources, market guidance and policy support to AI development, and at the same time strengthen links among private enterprises, research institutions and military bodies to promote mutual development.

With this plan, China expects AI to drive technology-enabled business innovations and industry transformations, contributing to the country』s early lead in building an 「intelligent economy」 and an 「intelligent society」 by 2030. The plan strategically identifies AI as the key engine of China』s progress toward becoming a major economic power in the decade to come, and the details of the road map are shown in Exhibit 1:

The AI development plan has answered the calls by some of the most influential business leaders in China, who have been proposing that the government-lead collaboration in AI research and facilitate industrialization of the technology. Among them, Mr. Robin Li, the founder of the largest Chinese search engine, Baidu, Mr. Lei Jun, the CEO of smartphone maker Xiaomi, and Mr. Li Shufu, the founder of Geely Automobile (now Volvo』s owner), have expressed their strong belief in the possibility that China will surpass the United States as a global AI superpower.

With the national plan set down, we believe AI technology will become a priority on the government』s agenda, and we expect further national/regional policy and funding support on AI to follow.

On May 18, 2016, China National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), together with other relevant government bodies, published the Three-year Implementation Plan for "Internet Plus" Artificial Intelligence (「the three-year plan」). The implementation plan identifies six specific areas of support for AI development, including capital funding, system standardization, IP protection, human capital development, international cooperation and implementation arrangement.

The three-year plan targets the establishment of basic infrastructure and innovation platform, industry system, innovative service system and basic industry standardization of AI in China by 2018, creating an AI market that is hundreds of billions of Rmb in size. NDRC expects the overall China AI industry to be synchronized with international development, and lead the global market in system-level AI technology and applications.

China has made major strides in AI vs. the rest of the world

On Research: China surpassed the US in 2014 in terms of the number of journal articles cited mentioning 「deep learning」 or 「deep neural networks」 (Exhibit 3). Lee Kai-Fu, Google China』s Co-President before Google exited China, pointed out during the 2017 World Economic Forum Annual Meeting that 43% of the top academic papers relating to AI were published with one or more Chinese researchers in 2015, regardless of where in the world the work was primarily conducted (and despite the fact that top-level experts are still

mostly from North America and the United Kingdom).

Much of the research progress in China is driven by leading Chinese companies. Baidu has been the first mover with its AI-focused lab in Silicon Valley opening in 2013; Tencent launched an AI lab in 2016 and actively recruited AI talent in neural network and machine learning; DiDi Chuxing (Didi) has also built out a lab to work on autonomous driving.

On industry: With over 700+ AI-related companies in China, the country had over 16k patents in the area as of October 2016. Further, US$2.6bn of capital flowed into the AI

industry between 2012 and 1H16, roughly 1/7th of that of the United States and 3X of that of the United Kingdom, according to a joint report by Wuzhen Institute and NetEase Tech.