美國球迷熱議倫納德有多大機會成MVP|關鍵看哈登火箭？

美國JRS之聲

美國球迷熱議倫納德有多大機會成MVP|關鍵看哈登火箭？

Kawhi Leonard"s case for MVP.

倫納德在MVP爭奪戰中到底有多大機會

His Seeding:

The MVP has gone to a player from the #1 or #2 seed every year since 1988 (nearly 30 years).

His Defense:

Kawhi is dragging a Spurs team which has Tony Parker, LaMarcus Aldridge and Pau Gasol as starters to a 1.015 defensive rating (4th in the league).Kawhi is averaging 1.8 steals per game (5th in the league) and has a box plus/minus of 7.7 (8th in the league).

Increased Offensive Ability:

Kawhi Leonard has effectively turned into the best two-way player in the league and one of the great all around scorers in the league. He is averaging 25.5/5.7/3.2 on 49/41/91 shooting splits - basically a 50/40/90 season which has only been done by Larry Bird, Mark Price, Reggie Miller, Steve Nash, Dirk Nowitzki, Kevin Durant, and Stephen Curry. He is doing this with a true shooting % of .627 (10th in the league) while also being top 10 in scoring.

球隊的順位：

從1988年開始MVP都歸屬於常規賽戰績各分區前兩名的球隊（幾乎已經有了30年的歷史）。

他的防守能力：

倫納德把一支首發為帕克，阿爾德里奇和加索爾的馬刺帶到了防守效率1.015（聯盟第四）。倫納德場均1.8次搶斷（聯盟第五）同時正負值7.7（聯盟第八）。

他不斷進步的進攻能力：

倫納德已經華麗升級為聯盟里攻防兩方面最好的球員，同時也是聯盟里最好的全能得分手之一。他場均25.5+5.7+3.2，命中率分別達到49%，41%和91%。基本是已經邁入了180俱樂部（命中率分別50%，40%，90%），而在這之前180俱樂部的成員只有伯德，馬克普萊斯，雷吉米勒，史蒂夫納什，德克諾維茨基，凱文杜蘭特和斯蒂芬庫里。他在做到這些的同時真實命中率達到62.7%（聯盟第十），同時在得分榜也高居前十。

[–]Spursbrandon_strandy 89 指標 5 天前

Imo he"ll get it if ALL of the following happens:

Either Warriors doesn"t win 70+, or that both KD & Curry end up having a legit mvp case so they actually split votes

Spurs get 2 seed without being too far behind GS (say 2~3 games)

Houston finishes below the 3rd seed

Cavs finishes with a worse record than Spurs

Okc finishes below 4th

Is this likely? Who knows. A lot of this really depends on what"s the hottest narrative in March or post ASG.

我覺的如果以下事件都發生的話，倫納德會拿到MVP：

要麼勇士沒有拿到70+的勝場，要麼庫里和杜蘭特都打得很不錯，然後兩個人互相分走了彼此一部分選票。

馬刺在勝場沒有落後太多的情況下拿到聯盟的2號種子（最多兩三場吧）。

火箭戰績沒有達到西部前三。

騎士戰績比馬刺要差。

雷霆也沒有達到西部前四。

這些有同時發生的可能么？誰知道呢。這些都取決於三月份會發生什麼，或者說是全明星賽之後。

[–]WarriorsSharksFanAbroad 5 指標 5 天前

If the Cavs are the 1-seed, I"m not sure the record will matter much. Though you make a good argument and have limited it to just a few necessary points that would favor Kawhi. FWIW, his WS/48 right now (.280) is 3rd behind KD (.291) and CP3 (.292).

如果騎士東部第一，我也不確定這些記錄還有沒有那麼多意義。儘管你說的很有道理，基本歸納出了幾個對倫納德有利的關鍵點。同時還有個事，倫納德每48分鐘的勝利貢獻值（0.280）是排在第三的，次於杜蘭特的0.291和保羅的0.292。

[–]Spursbrandon_strandy 19 指標 5 天前

Really? Imo the East 1 seed isn"t exactly coveted. I mean the Raptors almost got it last season and Lowry wasn"t recognised at all.

We finished 2nd in the West last season and won 10 more games than the 1 seed-Cavs. That"s a pretty big difference.

真的么？我記得東部第一實際上沒什麼卵用。上賽季猛龍差點就東部第一了，可是根本沒人鳥洛瑞。

我刺上賽季西部第二，比東部第一的騎士多贏了差不多十場球。這差別還是挺大的。

[–]RaptorsDeKobe-DeBryant 58 指標 5 天前

Houston finishes below the 3rd seed

That"s really the one it"ll come down to imo.

「火箭的戰績達不到西部第三」

在我眼裡這實際上挺關鍵的。

[–]SpursRedditThisBiatch 10 指標 5 天前

Yup, I think so too.

是啊，我也這麼覺得。

[–][HOU] Patrick BeverleyHarden-Soul 15 指標 5 天前

We"ve been in a tough part of our schedule and weve dropped a few winnable games, but with CP out at least the Clippers arent huge threats for a while. Jazz are getting me a little wary tho.

火蜜：我們現在賽程有點艱辛，有幾場該贏的比賽沒拿下來，但是現在保羅受傷，快船對我們在一段時間內構不成威脅。倒是爵士現在讓我有些擔憂。

[–]joeypeepy 135 指標 5 天前

You are absolutely right - Kawhi should definitely be a serious MVP candidate. Although I disagree that Lebron isn"t having an MVP-type season. 26-8-8 and leading his team to the 1 seed, again, isn"t what I would describe as coasting.

說得很對，倫納德絕對應該是MVP的有力競爭者之一。儘管我不同意有人說詹姆斯這個賽季的表現不夠MVP。26+8+8，帶領球隊雄踞東部第一可不是划水。

[–]LakersYou_Fucking_Donkey_[S] 32 指標 5 天前

Yes but LeBron has 2 guys on his team who are also averaging 20ppg which will weigh his chances down.

雖然沒錯，但是他的隊里還有兩個場均20分的球員多少讓他的得票機會降低了。

[–]CavaliersDmvill1 85 指標 5 天前

Then by this logic, kd shouldnt even be in the mvp considerations.

那如果是這個邏輯，杜蘭特根本就不應該被加進到MVP的討論中。

[–]SpursMalemansam 87 指標 5 天前

That"s the general consensus since before the season even began. Him and Curry are going to cancel each other out.

這是賽季前就有的一種聲音了。杜蘭特和庫里會衝擊掉彼此爭奪MVP的機會。

[–]SpursNoteful 25 指標 5 天前

Call me biased, but I currently have Kawhi second in MVP voting behind James Harden. What Harden is doing is just ridiculous. I see Harden winning MVP provided they keep the 3rd seed, or even get 2nd seed.

The only way I see Kawhi winning is if he continues his streak of 30+ ppg games, or if the Spurs somehow get 1st seed. If the Spurs get 1st seed I think it"s safe to say Kawhi is a 100% lock for MVP.

我就是無腦站邊了。現在我心中的MVP排行里，倫納德僅次於哈登排名第二。哈登現在的表現無敵。只要他們能保持住現在3號種子的位置或者衝到2號種子的位置上去，哈登都差不多可以拿下MVP。

我覺得倫納德唯一的機會是，他能夠持續現在連續砍下30+的表現。或者馬刺拿到西部第一。如果馬刺拿到西部第一，那我覺得倫納德拿MVP就板上釘釘了。

[–]Knicks-orangejoe 37 指標 5 天前

Kawhi won"t win because as well as he"s playing he"s still behind Harden, Durant, and LeBron, as well as Westbrook if you ignore seeding. But he"ll always be the MVP in my heart.

倫納德拿不到MVP的，因為不管他再怎麼牛B，表現都是不如哈登杜蘭特和詹姆斯的，如果不看排位的話，甚至不如威斯布魯克。但他在我心中永遠都會是MVP。

[–]LakersYou_Fucking_Donkey_[S] 9 指標 5 天前

Kawhi plays well both ways on offense AND defense. Meanwhile Harden and Westbrook slack in that area. Kawhi is a top 5 offensive and defensive player in the league and like I said, the best two way player there is. But it is unlikely he will win due to the lack of media attention.

倫納德進攻和防守都很不錯。同時哈登和威斯布魯克都有點攻守不平衡。倫納德是聯盟進攻防守的雙料前五。同時也確實像我說的是，聯盟最好的雙向球員。但我覺得他沒什麼媒體關注度所以贏不了的。

[–]Spurskcheng686 15 指標 5 天前

Yeah but since when has defense ever mattered to MVP voters

說得對。但啥時候給MVP投票的人考慮過防守。

[–]Wizardsrichmond33 31 指標 5 天前

Last year. Kawhi got second in MVP voting, cause of his defense. He wasnt scoring as big as this season - 21PPG, and yet the voters gave him what its due.

去年。倫納德是MVP投票的第二，就是因為他的防守。他的得分雖然比不上這個賽季---當時場均21分。但是該得的票都還是得到了。

[–]Spurssiaka_stevens 5 指標 5 天前

If he can keep up that 30 ppg streak, and Spurs keep 2nd or 1st seed, and Rockets finish below 3rd, Kawhi will get it.

他要是能連續30+，同時馬刺保持住1，2號種子的位置，火箭能夠排在第三名之後的話，倫納德就要拿下MVP了。

[–]Spurskukamonchi 9 指標 5 天前

I still have a list of better players than Leonard now. But it"s always good to be underrated just like Duncan when he was young. He"ll have his time.

刺蜜：我還是能列出來一框子比倫納德強的球員。但他確實還是像鄧肯年輕的時候一樣被低估了。儘管這樣我也相信他會迎來屬於自己的時刻的。

[–]PelicansConsumedAM 13 指標 5 天前

If the Spurs overtake the Warriors in seeding I think he wins it. As it stands now I"d guess he finishes 2nd behind Harden.

The best two way player in the league,that"s actually been KD this season. He"s been the best player in the league this year and is on the best team record wise in the league, but the narrative of joining a "73 win team" is probably going to take away from his campaign.

馬刺戰績要是超過勇士的話，我覺得倫納德就穩了。如果像現在這樣結束常規賽的話，我覺得他 就會在哈登之後排第二。

[–]LakersYou_Fucking_Donkey_[S] 17 指標 5 天前

I"d say Durant is close but not quite a better two-way player than Kawhi. It all comes down to what you think is better - Durant"s defense or Kawhi"s offense.

我覺得杜蘭特很接近但是他並沒有倫納德那樣攻防兼具。這最後實際上就取決於這兩個哪個對你來說稍微好一點---到底是杜蘭特的防守還是倫納德的進攻。

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