美球迷2013年預測5年後聯盟前五人！詹皇持久被低估|哈登歐文被看好

運動 03-23

美國JRS之聲

Who do you predict will be the 5 best active players 5 years from now? (self.nba)

submitted 4 年前 by NBAMyUncleFuckedMe

你預測5年後聯盟現役前五球員都有誰？

(註：此帖發於2013年初，等於討論的是2018年時聯盟前5人的格局，現在雖然是2017年，來看看誰比較有遠見和眼力吧）

[–][deleted] 68 指標 4 年前

Assuming those players are active now these are my tentative predictions:

Lebron

Durant

Kyrie Irving

Derrick Rose

James Harden

假設這些球員都是現役的，這是我的初步預測:

1.詹姆斯

2.杜蘭特

3.歐文

4.羅斯

5.哈登

[–]Raptorsheat_check_ 21 指標 4 年前

I agree with these picks except I might switch Lebron and Durant. Five years is a long time from now.

除了我可能會把詹姆斯和杜蘭特換掉之外，我同意你的選擇。五年時間可不短。

[–][deleted] 3 指標 4 年前

Irving needs to work on his defense before he can be considered among the "best 5 active players in 5 years".

在歐文可以被列入「五年後的現役前五球員」行列前他的防守要練練。

[–]ts159377 32 指標 4 年前

realistically, Durant, Lebron, Harden, Irving, and Paul George.

實事求是的說，杜蘭特，詹姆斯，哈登，歐文，喬治。

[–][PHI] Elton Brandmodestlife 4 指標 4 年前*

I don"t get the Paul George pick. In what direction do you think his development will go? In which way will he dominate the game to be a top 5 player?

Guys like Paul Pierce or Reggie Miller have no All-NBA 1st team awards, so they were never considered top 5 in the league. Even more so that the league had a lot of skilled big men in the early "00s. Dominique Wilkins had just one.

我不是很懂你選了喬治，你覺得他會朝哪個方向發展？作為聯盟前五球員，他會以何種方式掌控比賽？

像喬治或者雷吉米勒這樣的球員沒有一陣，所以他們從來不會被認為是聯盟前五的存在。在00年代早期聯盟有許多技巧很好的大個時更是如此，威爾金斯也只是拿到了一次一陣。

[–]LakersRavR 18 指標 4 年前*

-Kevin Durant - Hell pretty much be in his prime, and this season has shown us how capable he is of improving his game.

-杜蘭特——很可能進入了他的巔峰期，而且這個賽季已經展示了他對自己比賽的提升有多大能耐。

-LeBron James - I think theres a good chance hell be on par with or even better than Durant when hes what, 32? His game still isnt reliant on finesse, so if the athleticism starts to fade, I think its going to hurt parts of his game, primarily scoring.

But 32 is still young for a guy like LeBron, so who knows when his body will start slowing down. If Kobe is (arguably I guess) a Top 5 player at 34, LeBron should easily be Top 3 at a similar age.

-詹姆斯——我覺得有很大可能到時他多少歲來著，32？還能和杜蘭特平起平坐甚至比杜蘭特更強。他的打法還不依賴於技巧，所以如果他的運動能力開始下滑，我覺得對他比賽的某些部分會有害處，主要是得分方面。

但32歲對於詹姆斯這樣的球員還算是年輕的，所以鬼才知道什麼時候他的身體素質會開始下滑。如果科比34歲時是一個前五球員（我覺得可以說是），在類似的年紀前三對詹姆斯來說應該輕而易舉。

-Paul George - This guy is legitimate. His defense is great, his shooting is great, and his playmaking ability is improving before our eyes. I really hope Granger coming back doesnt cause a lot of chemistry issues, because with proper development, I can definitely see him being a Top 5 player in the league in a few years.

-喬治——他進前五是合理的，他的防守優秀，他的投籃出色，而且我們正見證著他的組織能力在提升。我真的希望格蘭傑的復出不會引起大量的化學反應問題，因為在適當的提升之下，我完全能預計他會在幾年之後成為聯盟前五的球員。

-Kyrie Irving - His first couple years are speaking for themselves. His offensive stats are a bit inflated due to the team he plays on, but hes still setting himself up to be one of the premier scorers in the league. His defense definitely needs some shoring up, as does his playmaking and court vision, but hes well on his way.

-歐文——他頭兩年的表現很有說服力，由於他所效力的球隊他的進攻數據有一點提升，但他依舊讓自己走在成為聯盟外線得分手之一的道路上。他的防守肯定需要硬起來，他的組織和球場視野也是如此，但他在自己發展的道路上走的很好。

-Derrick Rose - Health is going to be everything here. Id like to have him higher on this list, but cant bring myself to do so without seeing how he comes back from the ACL tear. There are already very few holes in his game, so at 24, the only thing thats holding him back is the inability to stay on the court right now.

-羅斯——一切都在於健康，我願意把他排在更高的位置，但沒看到他韌帶撕裂後復出的表現無法說服自己這樣做。他的比賽短板已經非常少了，所以24歲的他，現在能阻止他唯一一件事情就是無法上場打球。

Honorable mentions would go ~40 year old Kobe, Duncan, Garnett, Dirk.

Edit - Reddits numbering system really sucks

Forget about Blake Griffin too. I think he has a very real chance at being Top 5 sometime in the near future. People that bash him generally have no idea what theyre talking about. Its ridiculous how much hes added to his game and improved over the last year or so.

榮譽提名40歲的科比，鄧肯，加內特，德克。

PS：Reddits的計數體系真是爛。

忘了格里芬了，我覺得在未來的某個時刻他真的很有機會成為聯盟前五，那些黑他的人通常都不知道他們在說什麼，在過去一年左右的時間他的比賽技能增加了這麼多而且進步這麼大，這很變態了。

[–]Rocketsflamingdts 5 指標 4 年前

You have Paul George on this list but not James Harden?

你的預測名單里有喬治卻沒有哈登？

[–]LakersRavR 5 指標 4 年前

I think George has a higher ceiling than Harden, partly because hes a bigger/longer player.

He already a much better defender, and while Harden is still clearly the superior scorer/playmaker, I can see George closing the gap fairly quickly.

我覺得喬治的上限比哈登更高，一定程度是因為相對於哈登，他更大隻/更高。他已經是一個防守比哈登好得多的球員了，雖然哈登顯然還是出眾的得分手/組織者，但我預計喬治很快會把差距抹平的。

[–]Rocketsflamingdts 10 指標 4 年前*

The problem is Paul George is not scoring at an efficient pace.

Harden is on a team with literally no other player who could consistently create his own shot (Lin is extremely inconsistent), thus he is always the main focus on defense night in and night out. However, he is still putting up 26 points a game at a 59% TS, which is ridiculous efficiency.

On the other hand Paul George is on a team with capable scorers like West and George Hill (to a reasonable extent), so he doesn"t need to carry the offensive load night in and night out. Yet he has a slightly below league average TS of 53.1 (League average is 53.3).

I"m not saying Paul George won"t get better offensively, but assuming that Paul George could "close the gap" quickly in the scoring aspect is quite far fetched in my opinion. George is already an inefficient scorer, asking him to carry the team"s offensive load would make him even more inefficient.

To put it into perspective, if I am correct, only 2 players boast a higher TS% than Harden whiles scoring more than 20 points, and that"s Lebron and Durant.

Also, Harden is playing in the West and Paul George in the East.

問題是喬治得分並不處於高效行列。

哈登在一支基本沒有其他球員能穩定自己創造投籃機會的球隊（林書豪極其不穩定），因此每晚他總是防守的主要照顧對象。然而，他還是以59%的真實命中率場均拿下26分，這效率很變態。

另一方面，喬治所在的球隊有像韋斯特，喬治希爾（在一定程度上）這樣有能力的得分手，所以他每晚不需要扛起球隊的進攻，然而他53.1%的真實命中率比聯盟的聯盟平均水準要稍微低些（聯盟平均53.3%）。

我不是說喬治進攻端沒有變得更好，但即使喬治能快速抹平差距，我覺得在得分方面要追的距離還遠。喬治已然是一個低效的得分手，要求他扛起進攻的大旗會讓他更加低效。

以此來看，如果我沒說錯的話，場均得分超過20分的球員能說自己的真實命中率比哈登高的僅有兩人，那就是詹姆斯和杜蘭特。

同時，哈登身處西部，喬治在東部。

[–][WAS] Jan VeselyBettyWhitesTitties 4 指標 4 年前

Lebron, Durant, Irving, Rose, Davis

[–]Charlotte Hornetstreygordon 4 指標 4 年前

I"m surprised how barely anyone is mentioned Dwight. He"s had one down year (while injured), and so he falls out of the "best in the NBA" discussion? If he"s healthy, he"ll be #3 behind Lebron and Durant.

我很驚訝怎麼幾乎都沒人說霍華德，他低迷了一年（受傷），就因此掉出了「聯盟最佳」的談論範圍了嗎？如果他健健康康的，他會是僅此於詹姆斯、杜蘭特排第三的存在。

[–][deleted] 14 指標 4 年前

LeBron James, Chris Paul, Kevin Durant, Kevin Love, Paul George.

詹姆斯，保羅，杜蘭特，樂福，喬治。

[–][deleted] 5 指標 4 年前

kevin love. ppl are forgetting about him in the thread.

樂福，這帖里的人都忘了他了。

[–][deleted] 5 指標 4 年前

Averaging 14 boards in the few games he played. Last guy to drop 30 pts, 30 rebounds. Truly a fucking beast.

他打的那幾場比賽場均14板，最近一個砍下30分+30板的球員，真的是一猛禽。

[–]econhelp1 7 指標 4 年前

He"s a stat-stuffer.

他就是一個刷子。

[–]bbpeter 5 指標 4 年前

He"s one of the best rebounders and scorers in the league and he"s shown incredible dedication to improving his game. He might not be top 5, but saying that he"s just stat stuffer is ridiculous.

他是聯盟最棒的籃板手、得分手之一，而且他展現出對提高自身能力的不懈努力。他可能不是聯盟前五，但說他只不過是個刷子就太荒謬了。

[–]SunsDrFury 12 指標 4 年前*

1a. Lebron

1b. Durant

3 Kyrie

4 Wiggins

5 Harden

1.詹姆斯和杜蘭特

3.歐文

4威金斯

5.哈登

[–]Lakersthetilemaker 13 指標 4 年前

LeBron, Durant, Kyrie, CP3, and Andrew Wiggins

詹姆斯，杜蘭特，歐文，保羅以及威金斯。

[–]CanadaSorryAbootEh 1 指標 4 年前

Wow, I"m starting to hear a lot about this Wiggins kid. Is there any specific reason he is getting all this hype?? (I"m going to go YouTube him right now but someone tell me what all the hype is about)

哇，我開始聽到很多提名威金斯這孩子的，這其中有明確的原因為什麼他得到這些吹捧嗎？（我閑雜要去油管搜他的視頻看，但你們哪個屌大的出來告訴我他的吹點在哪兒。）

[–]Cavaliersbrooksfosho 8 指標 4 年前*

He jumps REALLY high and has been the recipient of a ton of hype. Realistically though, there"s next to no chance that he ends up being a top-5 player in the league. I feel bad for the kid honestly. As other people have mentioned, he"s legitimately earning the same praises as LeBron at the same age, and it"s sad that so many people fail to realize that he"s nowhere near that complete of player (yet). I mean shit, the kid is still in high school and his name comes up in half of the posts on this thread next to the likes of multiple future 1st ballot HOFers. Even if he manages to make 3-4 all-star games throughout his career, he"ll be labeled as a bust/waste of potential.

If you"re curious about Wiggins, I urge you, and everyone else for that matter, to watch full games of Huntington Prep & Canada"s HS squad (they"re on YouTube). He"s a freak athlete and utterly dominates HS basktetball, but it"s glaringly obvious when watching game after game that he struggles with the fundamental basketball skills - namely dribbling, decision making, court-vision - that most top-rated wing prospects/phenoms possess & execute naturally.

I don"t doubt that he"ll be a top-3 pick in 2014, but in all likelihood, he will fall considerably short of his current NBA expectations.

他跳的真的很高而且吹這麼狠也是很容易理解的。不過實事求是地說，他成為聯盟前五球員是不可能的，實話說我為這孩子感到遺憾。正如其他人所提到的，他得到詹姆斯在同樣年紀的讚譽是合理的，而很遺憾的是那麼多人還沒意識到他離成為一個完全體還差十萬八千里呢（目前為止）。我的意思是，草，這孩子還在高中呢，而他的名字在這帖子里有一半都在提他，和未來的這些首次提名就入選的名人堂球員相提並論。即使他整個職業生涯進了3-4次全明星，他會被貼上水貨/浪費天賦的標籤。

如果你對威金斯很好奇，我奉勸你以及每一個人，去看看亨廷頓預科和加拿大高中球隊的整場比賽（油管上有）。他運動能力很變態而且完全統治高中籃球，但看了一場又一場的比賽後很顯而易見的是他在基本的籃球技巧方面很掙扎——比如運球，決定，球場視野——這是最頂級的未來側翼球員/新秀天生具備/擁有的。

我對他會是2014前三順位的新秀沒有什麼疑慮，但考慮各種可能的情況，他離目前的NBA預期會有一定差距。

[–]BullsMarkups 27 指標 4 年前

Durant, Irving, Westbrook, Davis, and the corpse of Tim Duncan.

杜蘭特，歐文，威少，濃眉，以及鄧肯的屍體。

[–][CLE] LeBron JamesKashmir33 3 指標 4 年前

Davis over Lebron. lol

濃眉排在詹姆斯之前，666.

[–]BullsMarkups 4 指標 4 年前

In five years, LeBron might retire and play baseball.

五年後，詹姆斯可能退役去打棒球了。

[–]drewzywoo 3 指標 4 年前

kevin durant, blake griffin, kyrie irving, paul george, and probably still lebron

杜蘭特，格里芬，歐文，喬治，可能還有詹姆斯。

[–]Warriorsjustsomeguy5 4 指標 4 年前

Hmm.. Kevin Durant(a monster that"s still maturing), James Harden(Kobe-lite), Anthony Davis(could be the next dominant big man in the NBA), Derrick Rose(I want to believe he will bounce back and be better than ever after all his time away), Kobe Bryant(just for kicks.. 99.99% chance he will have retired by then lol). My realistic #5 would be Stephen Curry(another beast that"s still maturing). I"m not excluding LBJ on purpose, but we simply don"t know how his body will hold up. He"s so explosive, and his natural athletic abilities changes everything about him right now. 5 years from now there could be a completely different story being told about Lebron.

嗯…杜蘭特（一個仍然處於成長階段的怪獸），哈登（科比淡出視線），濃眉（會成為聯盟下一個統治級的大個），羅斯（我想要相信他會滿血復出而且比之前更強），科比（節目效果…那時99.99%他已經退役了）。我真正的第五會是庫里（另一個處於成長階段的怪獸），我故意不列詹姆斯，但我們就是不知道他的身體能撐多久，他那麼爆炸，而且他天生的運動能力改變了他現在的一切。對於詹姆斯五年後可能會是一個完全不一樣的章節。

[–]Lakersorsauce4 6 指標 4 年前

1. Durant (Will master his craft of scoring and be in his prime)

2. Derrick Rose (Will be entering his prime as well, combined with his refined touch for being a team leader, passer, scorer, and his athleticism)

3. Lebron (Kind of like Kobe the last couple of seasons, still a top player but beginning to exit his prime at 33)

4. Kyrie Irving (Will be the ultimate SG/PG combo if he continues at this pace, similar to Rose but with less athleticism)

5. Stephen Curry (I know this is a wild card but I believe he has the potential to become the next Reggie Miller if he keeps this up)

All of these are based on the assumption of NO INJURIES

1.杜蘭特（得分技巧會進入大師級別而且進入巔峰）

2.羅斯（也會進入他的巔峰期，而且他對於球隊領袖、傳球手、得分手以及他的運動能力有進一步的認識）

3.詹姆斯（有點像科比最後幾個賽季，仍然是一個頂級球員，但33歲開始走下巔峰）

4.歐文（如果他繼續現在的腳步，會成為終極分位/控衛結合體，類似於羅斯但運動能力差些）

5.庫里（我知道這是一個未知數，但我相信他有潛力成為下一個雷吉米勒，如果他持續現在的表現下去的話）

這些都基於假設他們沒有傷病的情況下

[–]Shaq Bryantsptagnew 6 指標 4 年前

I don"t know if Reggie Miller was ever top 5 though, so I"m not sure if Curry becoming the next Reggie Miller would launch him into top 5 status.

我不知道雷吉米勒是否進過聯盟前五，所以我不確定庫里成為下一個雷吉米勒是否會把他推上聯盟前五的位置。

[–]Warriorstheblackhole25 4 指標 4 年前

Yeah, Reggie was picked all-NBA 3rd team three times (no 1st or 2nd team), so it"s pretty safe to say that Reggie was never considered top 5 in the league.

是的，雷吉米勒拿了三次三陣（沒有一陣或二陣），所以說雷吉米勒從沒被認為是聯盟前五沒什麼毛病。

[–]NBAJsnoopy93 2 指標 4 年前

Just realized Carmelo Anthony will be 33 in 5 years, wow he better get that ring soon...

才意識到五年後的安東尼33歲了，哇，你最好儘快拿到冠軍

…

[–]SupersonicsWithNoRegard 2 指標 4 年前

This is coming from someone that only casually follows the NBA and hasn"t sat down to watch a game since the Finals:

LeBron, and the gap between him and #2 will be bigger than it is today. He has improved every year he"s been in the league and I don"t see any reason that would change. I know he"ll be 32 in five years but I don"t think traditional age limitations apply to him. His durability has been phenomenal and I think part of his freakishness is that he doesn"t wear down like other, "normal" elite athletes. This is purely speculation, but I don"t think LeBron will peak until he"s a couple years past 30. He"s already proven he can adapt his game and he"s so smart that he can improve even when his athleticism starts to decline.

Durant. I think we"re just a few seasons away from him perennially flirting with 35-36 ppg.

Russell Westbrook. He"s a smart guy and his decision-making will start to improve drastically. He"ll mature and his brain will start to catch up with his skills.

James Harden. I"ve been shocked by his success so far in Houston and I fully expect him to blossom into a bona fide superstar.

Anthony Davis. He"s only been a big man for a couple of years and he"s only going to get better. In five years his production will probably be very similar to Dwight"s in Orlando.

偶爾關注NBA而且自從總決賽後就沒看過一場比賽的球迷前來預測：

1.詹姆斯，他和第二的差距會比現在的還要大。他進入聯盟每一年都在進步，而且我找不到任何理由劇本不照這個發展。我知道五年後他32歲了，但我覺得傳統的年齡限制會適用於他。他的耐操度已然是現象級的，而且我覺得他變態的一部分是他和其他「正常」的精英級球員一樣會損耗。這單純只是推測而已，但我覺得詹姆斯在30多歲之前不會就人老珠黃。他已經證明了他可以調整自己的比賽，而且他那麼聰明所以即使他的運動能力開始下滑他也能進步。

2.杜蘭特，我覺得我們離他常年場均砍下35-36分只有幾個賽季時間。

3.威少，他是一個聰明的球員而且他的處理球能力開始大幅度提升，他會成熟而且他的頭腦會開始跟上他的技巧。

4.哈登，我對他目前在火箭的成就所震驚了，而且我完全期待他成長為一個真正的超級球星。

5.濃眉，他才成為大個球員沒幾年，而且他只會變得更強，五年後他的成就可能會和霍華德在魔術時非常相似。

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