白宮內部權力風雲

Ivanka 和 Bannon 之間，真是好一場大戲，一大場好戲。

深度分析：白宮內部風雲，和 Bannon 的倒掉

今天的兩篇關於 West Wing 的文章，有不少關於Ivanka夫婦和Bannon之間奪權之爭的細節。

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/04/15/us/politics/jared-kushner-ivanka-trump-white-house.html

http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/04/jared-kushner-steve-bannon-white-house-civil-war

Ivanka 夫婦跟 Bannon 的仇並非是理念上的。Ivanka 夫婦跟 DJT 一樣沒有什麼特別的政治理念，他們奪 Bannon 的權主要是因為覺得老爸最近輸得很難看，對 Trump 品牌不好；具體的政治理念衝突，倒不見得：

And several administration officials and people close to the family said the couple』s move against Mr. Bannon was motivated less by interest in shaping any particular policy than by addressing what they view as an embarrassing string of failures that may damage her father personally, as well as the Trump family brand.

所以指望 Ivanka 是 Bannon/Breitbart 說的「民主黨」並不現實。 Trump 也會記住 Ivanka 的話，但有一個延時（這種現像好像在 CEO 身上很常見）：

Trump 小姐介入的時候，她的父親的確會傾聽她的話——即使他並不會每次都採納她的意見。和 Trump 家族相當親密的一名人士描繪 Ivanka 對 Donald 有一種「延時影響」：有時幾天之後，總統先生會提起 Trump 小姐幾天前和她說的話，不過不會提及她在其中的功勞。

When Ms. Trump does intervene, her father listens — although he does not always take her advice. One person close to the family described her influence as a delayed-action fuse: At times the president will mention a point Ms. Trump made, uncredited, days later.

Bannon 暫時還不會被踢出去：Bannon 跑回 Breitbart 跟 Trump 干仗對 Trump 不利，Bannon 還需要 Trump 的破壞力，Ivanka 夫婦也暫時沒有精力接下 Bannon 的日常：

根據熟悉 Trump 想法的人士稱，Trump 更希望目前針對 Bannon 的局面穩定下來，並且讓Bannon 繼續留任（不過，這次會給出更多的制約），而不是讓他成為一個在局外的民粹主義評論者。Bannon 對總統與白人工人階級選民的關係洞若觀火，而他對改變建制規則的能力更是無出其右。另外值得一提的是，Ivanka 和她的丈夫到目前為止仍未沾手日常的政府運行，更不用說像孜孜不倦的 Bannon 先生那樣每天工作十八個小時了。

Mr. Trump would prefer the situation with Mr. Bannon to stabilize, according to people familiar with his thinking, and to keep Mr. Bannon on board, albeit in a more circumscribed role, than see him become a populist critic outside the gates. Mr. Bannon intuitively understands the president』s connection to white working-class voters and his instinct to demolish political norms. And neither Ms. Trump nor her husband have so far plunged into day-to-day government operations or logged the 18-hour days the indefatigable Mr. Bannon routinely works.

除非 Bannon 自己決定走人，就算 Bannon 和 Priebus 合解了，白宮的內鬥依然會有。一來 Trump 喜歡手下互斗，而來 Trump 在政治圈裡也沒有什麼互相信得過的重量級人物，大家都各懷居心。

Trump』s staff is as unbridled as the president himself. His advisers came together almost by accident and by default. They exhibit loyalty to their boss in front of the camera, only to whisper about him (and about their rivals, often in vicious terms) when the camera is gone.

另外，Conway 在電視上為 Ivanka 賣貨是馬屁拍到了馬腳上：

Conway』s exhortation to 「go buy Ivanka』s stuff」 backfired, both for ethical reasons and because it irked Ivanka, who did not appreciate being called out amid a controversy over a national boycott of her clothing line (and the dropping of that line by Nordstrom).

最瘋狂的，還是 Kushner 怎麼找到 Navarro 的這段：

在競選期間，Trump想要在中國相關的議題上更言之有物些，於是他就給了 Kushner 一份他的觀點簡述，要求他去做一些研究，（看有沒有相關的證據支持）。而 Kushner 做的所有事情就是打開亞馬遜。——然後他被一本書的名字瞬間擊中了：《中國死亡》，聯合作者即 Peter Navarro。他直接給素不相識的，作為貿易逆差鷹派聞名的 Navarro 打了個電話，問他要不要作為經濟顧問加入 Trump 的競選團隊（事實上，在Navarro加入時，他也是唯一的一個競選顧問）……

At one point during the campaign, when Trump wanted to speak more substantively about China, he gave Kushner a summary of his views and then asked him to do some research. Kushner simply went on Amazon, where he was struck by the title of one book, Death by China, co-authored by Peter Navarro. He cold-called Navarro, a well-known trade-deficit hawk, who agreed to join the team as an economic adviser. (When he joined, Navarro was in fact the campaign』s only economic adviser.) Kushner operated in much the same way when it came to crafting Trump』s tax plan—calling up someone for help out of the blue. Given the initial absence of pros who could do the job properly, he also tried his hand at writing speeches. Responding to criticism from the boss (「Jared, this is terrible!」), Kushner said, according to a person familiar with the episode, 「I』m not a fucking speechwriter. I am a real-estate guy.」

最後附一張 West Wing 地圖。注意，如今白宮的二樓除了 Conway ，已經全是 Ivanka 的人了。

什麼是選·美小密圈？

2016年11月9日，我們最後一期通訊送抵各位會員的郵箱，結束了四百多天連續不斷的「郵件轟炸」。在那之後，不管是微信後台留言、專欄文章評論還是選·美讀者群討論，都有熱心朋友希望我們能恢復會員計劃，繼續分享我們對美國政壇的解讀。

選·美小密圈即選美 iAmElection 欄目經過一段時間的修整後，推出的全新會員收費模式，年費由過往超過400元降為現在的199元（人民幣）。

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小密圈運行情況

當然說了這麼多，還是得上實例，以下是我們近日的試運行情況：

點擊播放 GIF/494K

如何加入小密圈

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