高盛中國銀行業：手術費及傭金收入報告-增長不再輕鬆但機會猶在

新聞 06-12

中文摘要：

詳解銀行的手續費及傭金收入

手續費及傭金收入在中國銀行業2016 年收入中佔比約25%；在凈息差收窄之際，2014-16 年銀行業手續費及傭金收入增長穩健，但自2016 年四季度之後增速放緩，令投資者對其增長潛力感到擔心。

我們在本報告中分析了銀行業手續費及傭金收入構成，發現雖然監管收緊和競爭加劇將使得該業務不再輕鬆，但長期增長機會依然存在，而且銀行已經在朝著這個方向調整

競爭加劇和監管收緊使得2017 年增速放緩…

短期來看，我們認為銀行手續費及傭金收入的三大增長引擎均面臨不利因素：1) 代理手續費：因為a) 互聯網企業和保險/基金公司建立直銷渠道導致渠道日益分流；b) 針對萬能壽險（保險公司通過銀行銷售的主要品種）的監管收緊。2) 託管+ 理財產品手續費，因為：a) 由於在新的宏觀審慎評估體系(MPA)下理財產品被納入廣義信貸增速計算，使得銀行不願發行更多理財產品；b) 利率走高壓縮了理財產品和同業業務之間的套利收益，導致同業理財產品需求回落。3) 銀行卡 + 結算收入，因為：a) 2016 年9 月6 日起實施的銀行卡手續費定價機制改革將手續費費率從0.8-1.2%壓低至0.5-0.6%；b) 第三方支付公司攫取非現金交易的市場份額。

…但是長期增長機會依然存在；買入郵儲銀行/重慶農商行，因為較低的手續費及傭金收入佔比使其受到的短期衝擊有限

雖然面臨短期不利因素，但我們認為該業務的中長期增長潛力穩健，因為銀行大量投資於移動銀行，以重新獲得客戶市場份額。監管規定促使電子交易結算回到銀行進行並要求第三方支付公司將客戶備付金存入銀行託管賬戶，這會帶來結算和託管費收入機會。此外，中國銀行業的手續費及傭金收入在總收入中的佔比仍低於發達國家銀行，而且我們認為中國銀行業仍有潛力擴張理財產品/投行業務。

考慮到短期壓力，我們仍認為銀行業的手續費及傭金收入增長將有所放緩，預計增速將從2015/16 年的30%/19%降至2017 年的10%；但是我們認為由於郵儲銀行/重慶農商行（均為買入評級）目前對於手續費及傭金收入的依賴程度較低，兩家銀行的這項業務仍將實現強勁增長。

Dissecting bank』s fee & commission income

Fee & commission (F&C) income consistently outperformed non-F&C income in 2015-16 and nowstands for c.25% of China banks』 revenue. However, decelerating growth for F&C income since 2016 and its first yoy decline since 2013 in 1Q17 have raised concerns on the growth potential of F&C income and the impact this will have on banks, especially given the low capital consumption nature of F&C amid stricter regulations on banks』 capital requirements.

In this report, we look into the details of bank F&C income and conclude that while F&C will no longer be an easy business with tighter regulations and more intense competition, longtermgrowth opportunities still exist and we already see banks moving to realize them.

? Near-term growth should remain muted as a result of: 1) tighter regulation on wealth management products (WMP) and universal life insurance products; 2) more distributorscompeting for agency fees, and lower bank card fee rates from both updated bank card fee policy and the increasing share of electronic transactions held by third-party payment companies (e.g., Alipay).

? We still see healthy mid-term growth potential, with banks investing heavily in mobile banking (payment, investment, lending) in an effort to regain clients』 wallet share.

New regulations moving electronic transaction settlement back to banks and requiring third-party payment companies to put client deposits under bank custodian accounts also creates settlement/custodian fee opportunities.

While conscious of near-term headwinds, we remain optimistic on long-term China bank F&C income given that F&C still accounts for only c.25% of revenue for China banks vs. the developed market (DM) average of c.40%, and we see potential for China banks to follow their DM counterparts and further develop both more personalized wealth management services off normal deposits and leverage existing corporate clients to expand their investment banking/consultancy services.

More specifically, we see three key items driving banks』 F&C income and will discuss them in

greater detail over the next section.

? Custodian + WMP fees from capital under banks』 custody, as well as subscription/ redemption fees and management fees on banks』 WMP.

? Agency fees from insurance/fund/trust sales through banks』 channel.

? Bank card/settlement fees from bank card transaction and settlement service.

Slower 2017 on competition/regulation but opportunities exist Custodian and WMP fees

What are custodian and WMP fees?

Custodian fees are derived from the balance of funds under banks』 custody (from funds, trusts, insurance, WMP, etc.). WMP fees, besides custodian fees, mainly consist of subscription/redemption fees and management fees, which are determined by the difference between realized and expected WMP yield.

Outlook: Stable custodian fee growth; WMP fee growth slowing on tighter regs We expect custodian fees to book stable growth together with the total assets/AUM of insurance, trust and asset managers. While the custodian fee rate declined steadily from 0.068% in 2014 to 0.042% in 2016 on more intense competition among banks, we see the rate cut narrowing into 2017 as AUM of higher-fee trusts gain momentum on the back of strong trust loan growth.

While we do not expect a sharp fall in WMP fees given that the majority of it is derived from custodian and management fees based on existing WMP balances, we expect WMP fee growth will slow in 2017 across banks as a result of:

? WMP』s inclusion in the measurement of banks』 broad credit growth under the new Macro Prudential Assessment (MPA) regulatory framework. This will encourage banks to

reduce WMP new issuance in order to slow their broad credit growth

? Elevated interbank rate driving out arbitrage opportunities for banks to borrow at low cost in the interbank market and buy higher-yield WMP from other banks.

In addition to MPA, the higher funding cost and tighter regulation against outsourced investment mandates have made interbank WMP investment less attractive for financial institutions (to purchase) in our view, which should have contributed to the very low growth in WMP in 1Q from Rmb29tn to Rmb29.1tn only (offset by still robust growth in retail WMP). We still see long-term growth opportunities for banks』 retail wealth management business, in particular given bank deposits』 still-massive share of personal wealth in China and the potential to move it into personalized wealth management/private banking services (Exhibit 16). For instance, in 2013-16,

CMB』s private banking AUM as a percentage of total deposits increased from 20% to 42%, one of the highest in our coverage. This helped support resilient custodian + WMP fees for CMB, and its share of our bank coverage』s total custodian + WMP fees reached 13% in 2016 from 8% in 2013.