高盛科技股警報：FANG已死FAAMG萬歲！但今年已經增加了6000億美元市值相當於一個香港！比較一下2000年泡沫時代吧！

高盛科技股警報：FANG已死FAAMG萬歲！但今年已經增加了6000億美元市值相當於一個香港！比較一下2000年泡沫時代吧！

YES,昨天晚上美國科技股好不容易跌了！原因是高盛一個報告。

美國股市的長期亂漲和中國股市的韭菜特色讓業內業外都看不懂。小編承認也不懂。

但比較一下美國股市在炒個啥，中國股市在抄個啥，就感覺我們完全生活在二個世界，二個世紀。高盛昨天發布的一個報告說，FANG已經失去了再咬一口的食慾，而FAAMG已經呼之欲出！是不是，是不是，是不是，重要的事情說三遍，對於大多數中國股民來說，這些詞就是下一個世紀的事情。中國股市在幹什麼呢？茅台，茅台，茅台，是不是有一種圖像即視感，一個穿長衫馬褂的東方人就著茴香豆，說茴字有5種寫法.....

好吧！FANG=Facebook, Amazon, Netflix， GooglFAAMG=Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft and Google ( Alphabet)

someon

5分鐘前：

Anyone who follows technology stocks is familiar with the acronym FANG: Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google. The four were grouped together as a way to best represent the tech stock momentum that was leading the broad stock market.

But Goldman Sachs believes FANG is losing its bite. Instead, we should look at another acronym that definitely rolls off the tongue: FAAMG.FAAMG combines Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft and Google (actually Alphabet) into a tech stock Voltron. "While FANG has dominated investor focus, the nature of the acronym has expanded more broadly to encompass mega-cap tech. Indeed, the bigger story in our view is FAAMG," said Goldman Sachs in a research report.

凌通社評

發表於4天前135編輯器

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而此時的中國，正在開展一場轟轟烈烈的清理八卦公眾號的工作（老子最討厭今日頭條、還有好幾個亂七八糟的無德的公眾號，那個長的很那個的咪蒙，堅決擁護清理這些害群之馬，咪蒙為什麼不刪？who knows），而幾個對標美國互聯網的恰好在中國的跨國公司呢，百度正試圖從一家莆田醫院推廣公司轉型到AI公司進行PPT都寫不清楚的布局，騰訊和網易都假裝自己不是遊戲公司，阿里巴巴正在為假貨和餘額寶頭痛。當然，摩拜單車和充電的正把中國的所有城市綠地填滿自行車。

高盛指出 FAAMG風險

連京東都陪著跌了

昨天，高盛分析師羅伯特·博魯傑爾牽頭撰寫報告稱，「FAAMG」股票--Facebook、亞馬遜、蘋果、微軟和Alphabet--的低波動，正導致投資者低估其風險；如果條件發生變化，可能會加劇其下行波動。

報告分析稱，如果FAAMG組成了一個行業，那麼其在市場上的實現波動率最低，低於必需消費品和公用事業股。這些股票所固有的風險包括周期性、技術中斷和監管/反壟斷疑慮。

FAAMG股票今年市值增加了6000億美元，相當於香港和南非的國內生產總值之和，其超越大盤的表現已經催生了極端持倉、擁擠因子和難以解釋的風險，逆轉風險正在增加。

受高盛報告引起科技股大跌影響，中概股集體下跌：京東大跌7% 阿里、百度跌超2%

京東暴跌近7%

美股科技板塊暴跌，盤中時刻，蘋果一度暴跌將近6%，市值蒸發逾400億美元。

小編現在也沒有找到高盛的報告全文，那麼看看美國媒體的報道吧。

CNBC：和2000年網路泡沫相比 FAAMG有短有長

Apple, Facebook and other big tech stocks tank, weigh on Wall Street

Facebook, Apple, Amazon.com, Alphabet, Microsoft all fell more than 3 percent Friday as investors rotated out of the stocks.

The group has been the market s leaders and is behind about 40 percent of its performance this year.

Goldman Sachs analyzed the group and finds it has some advantages and disadvantages when compared to the tech leaders before the tech bubble burst in 2000.

Big tech was slammed Friday as investors took profits from the group, which some fear has become a massive market bubble.

The sell-off accelerated in afternoon trading, with the Nasdaq falling 2.4 percent, and names like Facebook and Apple, down 4 percent. The S&P tech sector was down 3.3 percent Friday but was still up 18 percent for the year.

Goldman Sachs on Friday released a report on the top five outperforming mega-cap names in tech with some warnings on valuations and concerns that their volatility has become extraordinarily low. In fact, the stocks had become closely correlated to safe haven plays, like bonds and utilities.

Goldman studied the valuations of the tech leaders, known as the FAAMG — for Facebook, Amazon.com, Apple, Microsoft and Alphabet (Google). (It left out Netflix from the original FANG, since its impact on the S&P 500 is still too small.)

What it found is that the current-day tech stocks have advantages in cash flow, valuation and cash balances over the top five tech names in the first quarter of 2000 — just before the bubble burst. But the current group is behind in profitability, as measured by gross profits and total assets. The tech bubble names Goldman studied included Lucent, Cisco, Oracle and Intel. Microsoft was the only stock to make both lists

The FAAMG names have added a total of $600 billion of market capitalization this year — the equivalent of the GDP of Hong Kong and South Africa combined, says Goldman. The group makes up about 13 percent of the S&P 500, but has

accounted for almost 40 percent of its year-to-date performance. The stocks are among the top holdings of hedge funds. The analysts noted that mutual funds, aimed at core, growth and value, are overweight all but Apple, and the five companies combined are 11.8 percent of those mutual fund holdings.

The analysts said that momentum and growth as market factors are elevated and the tech names are appealing because investors may be looking for opportunities that are not dependent on policy changes in Washington.

UBS also commented on the FAAMG group of big tech stocks Friday. Julian Emanuel, equity and derivatives analyst, still likes tech but says they could be vulnerable in the near term as investors rotate to other groups.

"That could be a short-term headwind given the outperformance. But the long-term earnings growth story remains intact," he said. Emanuel noted there were four times when a handful of tech names became so powerful. Twice, it ended badly—after 1999 and 2007. But they also were leaders in 1993 and 2005.

He said it s notable that on the previous occasions, Microsoft fell 62.8 percent after the 2000 bubble and was down 45.4 in the financial crisis in 2008. "Such declines now appear as blips on a long-term chart," Emanuel noted.

The FAAMG group does break some historic trends. Goldman Sachs says the volatility in the FAAMG bloc is lower than not only the S&P 500, but the staples sector and utilities. The group continues to be closely tied to tech and discretionary stocks, but it has also started trading more with the other sectors following the U.S. election and its correlation to staples and utilities is at a five-year high.

"Steady sales growth, rising cash balances and limited market shocks have dampened realizedvolatility to the point that they now look more like consumer staples than tech stocks. If FAAMG was its own sector it would screen with the lowest realized volatility," the Goldman analysts wrote.

But they also noted that investors are using the group as a bond proxy. "Since November, correlation has turned negative suggesting that higher bond yields, typically associated with stronger growth, will weigh on stocks while falling bond yields are a good thing," they said, adding it runs counter to history.

While they may be loved, today s tech darlings aren t without potential flaws.

"We believe low realized volatility can potentially lead people to underestimate the risks inherent in these businesses including cyclical exposure, potential regulations regarding online activity or antitrust concerns or disruption risk as they encroach into each other s businesses," the Goldman analysts noted.

Momentum in the group "has built a valuation air pocket" and is "creating cause for pause," they wrote.

"The fear is that if fundamental events cause volatility to rise, these same passive vehicles will sell and exacerbate downside volatility," they added. Goldman points to a warning in the options markets, which is pricing in more volatility for the companies when looking at options three months out, and prices suggest the FAAMG stocks would be more volatile than the average stock in 6 of 9 major sectors, including tech.

Free cash flow for FAAMG has plateaued after doubling between 2006 and 2016, and at the same time the group has increased capital expenditures to 17 percent while cash flow from operations grew at less than 10 percent. Cash levels have also plateaued as a percent of market cap.Comparison of FAAMG stocks to 2000 tech bubble leaders

But when looking back at theyear 2000, all five companies have eight times more cash than the bigtech stocks had in the bubble. Free cash margins are modestly better than the tech bubble companies but yields are higher.

Goldman said that the gross profits and total assets were significantly higher for the tech bubble names and that could be because today s businesses have become more capital intensive. Return on invested capital was also higher but that may be because companies now are using accelerated depreciation.

As for size, the FAAMG stocks are almost 30 percent bigger and they aren t as large a portion of the S&P, 13 percent compared with 15.8 percent in 2000. FAAMG is an even larger 43 percent of Nasdaq and provided 55 percent of its gains so far this year.

During the bubble, the five largest tech names were trading at almost 60 times two-year forward earnings, with the cheapest stock trading at 36 times. Now FAAMG trades at 23 times forward two-year earnings with only one, Amazon, over 30 times.

今日美國：FANG已死，FAAMG晚睡

"While FANG has dominated investor focus, the nature of the acronym has expanded more broadly to encompass mega-cap tech. Indeed, the bigger story in our view is FAAMG," said Goldman Sachs in a research report.

The companies representing FAAMG added $600 billion in market cap this year, equal to the gross domestic products of Hong Kong and South Africa combined. Thanks to investor demand for these money-makers, they also now have lest volatility than utilities, an upside-down scenario that adds to concern the stocks are nearing a top.

While these five stocks are performing well, there are concerns their heavy presence and lofty prices could parallel the tech bubble of the early 2000s. However,Goldman notes FAAMG carries several advantages, notably lower valuations and better cash balances.

Business Inside:忘記FANG吧，高盛提出新的推動市場的科技巨頭

FORGET FANG: Goldman adopts a new acronym for the most powerful tech stocks driving the market

Forget the FANGs: Goldman Sachs has adopted a new acronym for the most powerful drivers of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq.

"While FANG has dominated investor focus, the nature of the acronym has expanded more broadly to encompass mega-cap tech," Robert Boroujerdi and his colleagues wrote in a note on Friday.

"Indeed, the bigger story in our view isFAAMG— Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft and Alphabet — a group of five stocks which have been the key drivers of both the SPX & NDX returns year-to date."

Combined, the FAAMG stocks have added $660 billion in market value this year.

As with FANG, the G in FAAMG represents Google, the best-known company under the Alphabet umbrella. FAAMG also adds Apple to the list. But Goldman excluded Netflix, the N in FANG, and Nvidia, the red-hot tech stock that is up 249% in the past year, saying they are not yet large enough and are more volatile.

The FAAMG stocks on the other hand are displaying lower volatility, much as the rest of the market is. As its own sector, FAAMG would have the lowest volatility in the market, Goldman says, though that could end up being a problem.

"We believe low realized volatility can potentially lead people to underestimate the risks inherent in these businesses including cyclical exposure, potential regulations regarding online activity or antitrust concerns or disruption risk as they encroach into each other』s businesses," Boroujerdi wrote.

Goldman expects that passive investors who are chasing a low-volatility strategy would move into the FAAMGs. "The fear is that if fundamental events cause volatility to rise, these same passive vehicles will sell and exacerbate downside volatility,"

當然，中國的科技公司在搞AI，順便看一個麥格里的報告

China Internet Embracing AI and robotics

Baidu focuses its future on AI

Chinese leader in the AI space. Baidu, as China』s largest search engine, has seen its investment in AI accelerate since hiring Dr. Lu Qi as the new Chief Operating Officer in Jan 2017. It currently operates four research labs (Augmented Reality, AI, Deep Learning, and Big Data) across Beijing and Silicon Valley. Some of its AI technology, such as speed and image recognition, is world-leading. The AI has been applied to Search, Duer (similar to Siri), Autonomous Driving, Cloud and other products. Driverless cars are approaching the commercialization stage. Among the AI-enabled products within Baidu, driverless cars present the best growth and commercialization opportunities. It has merged its L3 (eyes off) and L4 (mind off) autonomous driving business into a single group (IDG) which is now led by Lu Qi. Baidu launched the 「Apollo Project」 in April 2017 to open its autonomous driving platforms (hardware + software + cloud) to car manufacturers to develop autonomous vehicles. Baidu has already partnered with local OEMs incl. Cherry, BYD and BAIC Motor. In terms of development timeline, Baidu plans to share its technology for simple urban road conditions by the end of 2017, with the ultimate goal of being fully autonomous on highways and open city roads by 2020.

Alibaba embeds AI across businesses

Empowering e-Commerce and cloud. Alibaba is building up AI on large-scale computing power and data, and is exploring the potential to embed AI into various business lines. For its core e-commerce, Alibaba is applying AI algorithms to shopping experience, to upgrade supply chain management, and to improve logistics efficiency; Alibaba Cloud is introducing AI services to healthcare and manufacturing companies; and Alibaba』s affiliate Ant Financial is working on face-recognition technology to secure e-payments. Cooperation with business partners. In addition, Ant Financial acquired EyeVerify in Sep 2015 for its biometric authentication technology. EyeVerify checks identities through eye-vein patterns and creates digital eye print IDs. Alibaba has also established Alibaba Robotics, a joint venture with SoftBank, to operate the Pepper robot business in China. Softbank has sold 10,000 Pepper robots in the Japanese market. In China, Pepper will be powered by Alibaba』s YunOS operating system and will help scan traveller ID cards and print boarding passes.

Tencent playing catch-up on AI

Boosting AI lab and R&D capabilities. Among BAT, Tencent started relatively late in the field of AI. But it has been boosting its R&D talents since 2016.

Tencent recently opened an artificial intelligence research facility in Seattle, US, to be led by former Microsoft scientist Yu Dong. This will strengthen its AI capabilities in addition to the existing AI lab of about 50+ researchers and 200 engineers in Shenzhen. Voice, AI open source and cloud collaboration.

Tencent launched its Alexa-like AI voice assistant Dingdang in Apr 2017.

Tencent will integrate Dingdang into its apps and ecosystem with services including weather, news, music and LBS. Further, Tencent plans to open source its AI computing platform called Angel with a focus on machine learning techniques. Tencent applies them internally in areas such as video streaming and social ads. In terms of Tencent Cloud, its offering comes with AI services including face detection and optical character recognition, and Tencent recently adopted NVIDIA Tesla for AI cloud computing.

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