梅姨已成「唐寧街10號囚犯」！BBC資深主播犀利揭秘

上周四的英國大選，正在逐漸退熱，留下特雷莎·梅領導下的保守黨如履薄冰地艱難支撐起建立「少數派政府」的決定，以及工黨、蘇格蘭民族黨尚未完全放棄的虎視眈眈。

一個周末之間，保守黨都經歷了些什麼？梅姨向黨內資深議員道歉；保守黨宣布同北愛爾蘭民主統一黨（DUP）以「confidence and supply」形式合作後，又被天空新聞爆出合作協議尚未談妥；梅姨兩大資深參謀Nick Timothy和Fiona Hill同一天內辭職，而「老對手」邁克爾·高夫卻重回內閣……

然後今天又傳出了原定6月19日的女王演講（Queen s Speech）將被「延遲數日」的消息。

（原圖來自英國電訊報）

今天中午，BBC在官方網站發表了一篇叫做《特雷莎·梅：唐寧街10號的囚犯》（Theresa May: The prisoner of No 10）的文章，作者是BBC Radio 4著名節目《The World This Weekend》的資深主播馬克·馬代爾（Mark Mardell）。順帶說一句，這檔電台節目是練聽力的不錯選擇哦！

他以梅姨當前的處境作為切入點，犀利分析了英國當前局勢，尤其是名義上依然為執政黨的保守黨內幕，措辭風趣又毒辣。雖然是一家之言，倒也深入淺出，可以說是英國資深媒體人的一種有趣的聲音。

以下為馬代爾英文原文及中文編譯版本

淡定吃瓜的分割線

別被蒙蔽雙眼以至於看不清大局。這不是正常的英國政治。

Don t be fooled out of seeing the big picture. This is not politics as normal.

小心翼翼建造起來的紙牌屋已經轟然垮塌，現在的英國政局比任何恐怖片都來得還要混亂，還要暴虐。

The carefully constructed house of cards has been swept away. It is politics more chaotic, more brutal than any thriller.

保守黨的無情可是一向名聲在外——即使是備受愛戴的領導人，只要無法再作為保證黨派執政地位的工具，就會被拋棄。被棄之如敝履的一代偶像瑪格麗特·撒切爾就是個典型案例。但這一次，局勢更加殘酷，是弄權者一次無比野蠻的教訓。

The Conservative Party has a reputation for ruthlessness - getting rid of even much loved leaders when they are no longer a tool to maintaining the party s rule. The defenestration of their idol Margaret Thatcher was a sign of that. But this is far more cruel, a breathtakingly savage lesson in the exercise of power.

梅女士在大選的齒輪上被碾壓得粉身碎骨，但卻被迫撐起殘破不堪的軀體，痛苦地揪起一張臉，只為了保證她的黨派尚有一線生機在首相辦公室里苟延殘喘。

Mrs May has been broken on the electoral wheel but is forced to stand on splintered limbs, grimacing through the pain, for the sake of her party s chance to cling to office.

她就像一個被手底下男爵們抓住了的中世紀君主，她深愛並信任的幕僚們被擋在門外，只有一個昔日舊友前來施捨冰冷的撫慰（譯者註：估計說的是在謠傳將接替梅姨成為首相後，今天站出來說不會「篡位」的鮑里斯）。現在的英國政府就像一個只剩兩條腿的凳子一樣穩定，而她早已被同僚們的需求折騰得筋疲力盡。

She is like a medieval monarch, captured by her barons, shorn of the advisers she loved and trusted, allowed one old close friend to minister cold comfort. The government is stable as a two-legged stool, and she is sapped of strength, weakened by the demands of her colleagues.

新任內閣今天首次召開了會議。

所有我交談過的保守黨成員，都不認為她能堅持到兩年以上——很多人說6個月，還有說她撐不過幾天的。更糟糕的是，他們全都公開承認自己並不知道她還能坐在首相之位多久，甚至不知道最後一根稻草會是啥。

I have spoken to no Conservative who thinks she can last more than two years - many say six months, some a few days. What s worse, they openly admit they don t know how long she can cling on, or what would be the trigger that pulls the trap.

我懷疑，現在讓她留在首相府的不是自大的野心，而是痛苦的責任。

I suspect she is still there out of agonising duty, not arrogant ambition.

也許我錯了吧。

Perhaps I am wrong.

也許梅女士認為只要她能堅持度過18個月，改變她的政府風格，交出一份不錯的脫歐協定，那麼無論下次大選什麼時候到來，她都還能東山再起。

Perhaps Mrs May thinks if she can hold on for 18 months, change her style of government, do a good Brexit deal, she can win the next election whenever it comes.

畢竟更蹊蹺的事情都發生過，而且最近匪夷所思的事情本來就接二連三。毛毛雨下過之後，但凡聰明點的預言師都會告訴你接下來可能大雨傾盆。

Weirder things have happened. But that s only true because so many weird things have happened recently. When it s rained fishes and then frogs, it s an unwise seer who tells you cats and dogs won t follow.

然而在大選結果這樣殘酷的「驚喜」面前，要是還能抱有如此自信，那絕對是超人類一般的決斷力了。

But such self-belief and self-confident resolution would be almost superhuman in the face of such a savage surprise as the election result.

4月8日大選最終結果，保守黨離326個議席的絕對優勢標準還有8位之差。（圖片截取自天空新聞）

和資深政客們聊了幾天之後，我聽到過最棒的有評論，是由一位多次進入內閣、非常老到的議會成員提出的一個問題：「是誰把她囚禁了起來？」

After days of chatting to senior politicians, the best comment I heard was a question asked by a highly sophisticated operator and veteran of many cabinets: "Who s her jailer?"

答案是內閣所有資深成員，以及影響力深遠的后座議員所組成的「1922年委員會」（譯者註：1922年委員會負責安排選舉、記錄選票和公布結果），他們迫切地尋求避免立刻展開新一次大選，並想要解決女王講話和開啟脫歐談判兩件大事。

The answer is the senior members of the cabinet and the influential 1922 committee of backbenchers, all desperate to avoid an immediate election and wanting a Queen s Speech and the start to Brexit talks.

還沒什麼其他人想要接下特雷莎·梅這份工作。但另一方面，本來也沒有任何人期待過大衛·卡梅倫離開後造就的這出混亂鬧劇。

No-one else wants the job quite yet. But on the other hand, no-one wanted the chaotic farce following David Cameron s exit that produced this situation.

2016年7月，卡梅倫離開唐寧街10號。

人們需要時間來喘一口氣——可能需要幾周，或者幾個月，也有可能只需要幾天。

People need time to draw breath - a few weeks, a few months, a few days.

很多人首相上任的時候，都不過是平等對待他人的先行者，最後卻成為獨裁者。梅女士的唐寧街10號生涯，卻以輕視同僚作為開端，以一個自大暴君的形象來「統治」政府。現在，她便只能做個保守黨穩固大船上的船首像（譯者註：船首像就是下圖這玩意兒，英文里有「有名無實」的含義）罷了。

Many prime ministers begin as barely more than first among equals and end as dictators. Mrs May began her time in No 10 contemptuous of colleagues, ruling as an arrogant autocrat. Now, she is just the figurehead on the good ship Tory Resolution.

（網路圖）

別去責怪萊頓·克羅斯比、尼克·提摩西或者菲奧娜·希爾（譯者註：克羅斯比是保守黨大選中梅姨的重要參謀，提摩西和希爾則是文章開頭提到的那兩位周五剛辭職的梅姨資深參謀），也別去責怪建議她提前大選的大衛·戴維斯。畢竟基於當時的民調結果和工黨狀態，提前大選的建議是非常明智的。失敗的局面完全是特雷莎·梅一手造成，大選宣傳心不在焉，也沒有真正呈現出一個英勇無畏的領導者形象。

Don t blame Lynton Crosby, Nick Timothy or Fiona Hill, or those, such as David Davis, who advised her to go for an election. It was eminently sensible, given the state of the polls and the Labour Party. The failure was her failure. She wasn t up to the campaign, did not live up to her role in the heroic narrative.

這番敗局的影響是相當的現實，任何少數派政府，都必將成為議員們一念之差的人質。

There s a hugely important practical impact to this diminishment. Any minority government is hostage to the whim of MPs.

人們普遍認為，保守黨的那些幕後黑手們通過欺壓手段和曝光性醜聞、財政醜聞的威脅來達成自己的目的。但實際上，真正起作用的都是花言巧語和賄賂交易。

There is a popular belief that the whips do their job by bullying and threatening exposure of sexual and financial peccadilloes. In fact, it is blandishments and bribes that do the job.

在沒有黨派獲得議會席位絕對優勢的情況下，任何投票都可以稱為一場拍賣，無論是為刺蝟出台保護政策、還是乾脆來場新大選，暴烈的議員們都可以為了他們的小心思屢出高價。

Without a majority, any vote can turn into an auction, with the most truculent MPs bidding high in their own little causes, whether demanding more protection for hedgehogs or a new roundabout for the constituency.

而在首相本人已經過度曝光的情況下，這種情況還會被無限放大。

This is much magnified when the prime minister herself is so exposed.

受影響最大的還是脫歐。特雷莎·梅尋求更大的權力是為了獲取一個更好的協議，逐字逐句把她的話再讀一遍，意思就是說，她現在能搞到手的協議只會比大選前更糟糕。

The most important impact is on Brexit. Theresa May called for a bigger mandate to get a better deal. It s worth reading her exact words again. Taken literally, she will now get a worse one.

有報道稱，在大選剛失敗時一場冰冷的談話中，財相已經告訴她，他想要一個「商業第一的脫歐」。

It is reported the chancellor told her, in a cold early defeat conversation, that he wants a "business-first Brexit".

蘇格蘭保守黨的領導人魯斯·大衛遜要她「以經濟為先」。

The Scottish leader Ruth Davidson told her to "prioritise the economy".

保守黨前內閣大臣斯蒂芬·多雷爾甚至都已經不屬於議會了，卻還是放話說英國需要有「日復一日」的嚴格審查來避免硬脫歐。

The former Conservative cabinet minister Stephen Dorrell is no longer in Parliament but has said there should be "day-by-day" scrutiny to avoid a hard Brexit.

傑瑞米·科爾賓說他要個「就業率第一的脫歐」。

Jeremy Corbyn says he wants a "jobs first Brexit" .

北愛爾蘭民主統一黨不同意「沒有協議比一個糟糕的協議要好」。（譯者註：這是特雷莎·梅評論脫歐協議時的原話）

The DUP don t agree that "no deal is better than a bad deal".

已經有呼聲要黨派間攜手推動一個軟脫歐。一言以蔽之，意思就是要把削減移民從脫歐談判的首要任務列表上劃掉。

There is talk of a cross-party alliance to press for a softer Brexit. On the whole, that s code for dropping immigration down the priority list.

有意思的是，赫塞爾廷勛爵（譯者註：資深保守黨成員）曾經表示存在英國與法國、德國之間簽訂人口自由協議的可能，然而他也沒具體說這將是怎樣一個協議。

Intriguingly, Lord Heseltine has suggested a deal might be done with France and Germany on freedom of movement, although he didn t suggest what it might be.

赫塞爾廷勛爵。

另一方面，右派報紙和保守黨內那些意志堅決的硬派脫歐黨們，也必將醋意滔天地試圖從這種「妥協」里挽救他們的脫歐大計。

On the other side, the right-wing newspapers and determined hard-line leavers in the Conservative Party will be just as jealously protecting their Brexit from such compromise.

當一個美國總統任期將滿的時候，他們通常被描述為權威所剩無幾的「跛腳鴨」，因為他們的權力、以及背後支持他們的力量都有個明確的截止點——不如跟下一個總統勾兌勾兌。當大衛·卡梅倫宣布他將不等任期結束提前下台的時候，也曾經被這樣叫過。

When a US president comes to the end of their term, they are often described as a lame duck, with little authority, because their power and patronage have a clear cut-off point - better currying favour with the next fellow. The same was said of David Cameron when he announced he wouldn t serve a full term.

在這些情況下，以上說法並非完全正確。但當一個首相處於「緩刑期」，而面對的問題是「什麼時候下台」而不是「會不會下台」的時候，討價還價的時候還嘴硬不讓步就變得困難很多了。

It is only partially true in those cases. But when a prime minister is on probation, when the question is "When?" not "If?" it will be much harder for her to broker deals and stick to her guns.

你大可認為她現在反而能夠背水一戰，但如果她還是失敗了，那麼英國政府將徹底垮台，新一次大選將近在眼前。這壓力也不是一般的大。

You could argue she has little to lose - but if she fails, the government might fall and an election looms. That s quite a bit of pressure.

我們一次又一次地認識到，搞懂政治需要的可不是尋常邏輯。

We have learned again and again that political will counts for more than the traditional pundit s logic.

也許梅女士能從聖保羅寫給科林蒂安的信中（譯者註：新約聖經中的故事）求取慰藉，找到她「軟弱無能中的浩大之力」，重新成為一個有存在感的形象。

Mrs May could take comfort from St Paul s letter to the Corinthians, find her "strength is made perfect in weakness" and emerge anew a figure of substance.

但現在，她能讓一個諺語中的跛行野禽都看起來強大而穩定。

But, for now, she makes the proverbial limping wildfowl look strong and stable.

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