麥肯錫：人工智慧-下一個數字前沿

新聞 06-20

IN BRIEFARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE:THE NEXT DIGITAL FRONTIER?

Artificial intelligence is poised to unleash the next wave

of digital disruption, and companies should prepare for

it now. We already see real-life benefits for a few earlyadopting firms, making it more urgent than ever for others to accelerate their digital transformations. Our findings focus on five AI technology systems: robotics and autonomous vehicles, computer vision, language, virtual agents, and machine learning, which includes deep learning and underpins many recent advances in the other AI technologies.

?? AI investment is growing fast, dominated by digital giants such as Google and Baidu. Globally, we estimate tech giants spent $20 billion to $30 billion on AI in 2016, with 90 percent of this spent on R&D and deployment, and 10 percent on AI acquisitions. VC and PE financing, grants, and seed investments also grew rapidly, albeit from a small base, to a combined

total of $6 billion to $9 billion. Machine learning, as an enabling technology, received the largest share of both internal and external investment.

?? AI adoption outside of the tech sector is at an early, often experimental stage. Few firms have deployed it at scale. In our survey of 3,000 AI-aware C-level executives, across 10 countries and 14 sectors, only 20 percent said they currently use any AIrelated technology at scale or in a core part of their businesses. Many firms say they are uncertain of the business case or return on investment. A review of more than 160 use cases shows that AI was deployed commercially in only 12 percent of cases.

?? Adoption patterns illustrate a growing gap between digitized early AI adopters and others. Sectors at the top of MGI』s Industry Digitization Index, such as high tech and telecom or financial services, are also leading adopters of AI. They also have the most aggressive AI investment intentions. Leaders』 adoption is both broad and deep: using multiple technologies across multiple functions, with deployment at the core of their business. Automakers use AI to develop self-driving

vehicles and improve operations, for example, while financial services firms are more likely to use it in customer experience–related functions.

?? Early evidence suggests that AI can deliver real value to serious adopters and can be a powerful force for disruption. In our survey, early AI adopters that combine strong digital capability with proactive strategies have higher profit margins and expect the performance gap with other firms to widen

in the future. Our case studies in retail, electric utilities, manufacturing, health care, and education highlight AI』s potential to improve forecasting and sourcing, optimize and automate operations, develop targeted marketing and pricing, and enhance the user experience.

?? AI』s dependence on a digital foundation and the fact that it often must be trained on unique data mean that there are no shortcuts for firms. Companies cannot delay advancing their digital journeys, including AI.

Early adopters are already creating competitive advantages, and the gap with the laggards looks set to grow. A successful program requires firms to address many elements of a digital and analytics transformation: identify the business case, set up the right data ecosystem, build or buy appropriate AI

tools, and adapt workflow processes, capabilities, and culture. In particular, our survey shows that leadership from the top, management and technical capabilities, and seamless data access are key enablers.

?? AI promises benefits, but also poses urgent challenges that cut across firms, developers, government, and workers. The workforce needs to be reskilled to exploit AI rather than compete with it; cities and countries serious about establishing themselves as a global hub for AI development will need to join the global competition to attract AI talent and investment; and progress will need to be made on the ethical, legal

and regulatory challenges that could otherwise hold

back AI.

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE ISGETTING READY FOR BUSINESS, BUTARE BUSINESSES READY FOR AI?

Claims about the promise and peril of artificial intelligence are abundant, and growing.

AI, which enables machines to exhibit human-like cognition, can drive our cars or steal our privacy, stoke corporate productivity or empower corporate spies. It can relieve workers

of repetitive or dangerous tasks or strip them of their livelihoods. Twice as many articles mentioned AI in 2016 as in 2015, and nearly four times as many as in 2014.1 Expectations

are high.

AI has been here before. Its history abounds with booms and busts, extravagant promises and frustrating disappointments. Is it different this time? New analysis suggests yes: AI

is finally starting to deliver real-life business benefits. The ingredients for a breakthrough are in place. Computer power is growing significantly, algorithms are becoming more sophisticated, and, perhaps most important of all, the world is generating vast quantities of the fuel that powers AI—data. Billions of gigabytes of it every day.

Companies at the digital frontier—online firms and digital natives such as Google and Baidu—are betting vast amounts of money on AI. We estimate between $20 billion and $30 billion in 2016, including significant M&A activity. Private investors are jumping in, too.

We estimate that venture capitalists invested $4 billion to $5 billion in AI in 2016, and private equity firms invested $1 billion to $3 billion. That is more than three times as much as in

2013. An additional $1 billion of investment came from grants and seed funding.

For now, though, most of the news is coming from the suppliers of AI technologies. And

many new uses are only in the experimental phase. Few products are on the market or are likely to arrive there soon to drive immediate and widespread adoption. As a result, analysts remain divided as to the potential of AI: some have formed a rosy consensus about AI』s potential while others remain cautious about its true economic benefit. This lack of agreement is visible in the large variance of current market forecasts, which range from $644 million to $126 billion by 2025.2 Given the size of investment being poured into AI, the low estimate would indicate that we are witnessing another phase in a boom-andbust cycle.

Our business experience with AI suggests that this bust scenario is unlikely. In order to provide a more informed view, we decided to perform our own research into how users

are adopting AI technologies. Our research offers a snapshot of the current state of the rapidly changing AI industry, looking through the lenses of both suppliers and users to come up with a more robust view of the economic potential of AI and how it will unfold. To begin, we examine the investment landscape, including firms』 internal investment in R&D and deployment, large corporate M&A, and funding from venture capital (VC) and private equity (PE) firms. We then look at the demand side, combining use case analyses and our AI adoption and use survey of C-level executives at more than 3,000 companies to understand how companies use AI technologies today, what is driving their adoption of AI, the barriers to further deployment, and the market, financial, and organizational impacts of AI. For further details on sources of our insights, see Box 1, 「A multi-lens approach to understanding the

AI story.」