外國網友討論：印度和中國誰會是下一個超級大國

近期有人在Quora上提出了一個比較有趣和談論了很久的話題，那就是作為亞洲的兩個人口大國，中國和印度，到底誰才是未來的超級大國呢？下面看看外國網友是如何回答的。

Who will be the next superpower – India or China?

誰會成為下一個超級大國，印度還是中國？

美版知乎Quora網友討論？

Sanjit Kumar, Asst. Professor at Magadh University

Answered May 18

It will be China first, followed by India later.

Let me remind you Marshall Plan which directly establish America, a superpower after World War II.

This project costs approx $13.3 billion and completed within 4 years.

The amount was invested to rebuild war-devastated European regions, remove trade barriers, modernize industry, make Europe prosperous.

中國會先崛起為超級大國，接著是印度

提醒你以前的馬歇爾計劃。二戰後，馬歇爾計劃直接讓美國成為了超級大國

該計劃耗資大約133億美元，4年內完成

這筆資金被用來重建被戰爭摧毀的歐洲地區，清除貿易障礙，建立現代化工業，讓歐洲繁榮了起來。

For the United States, the Marshall Plan provided markets for American goods, created reliable trading partners, and supported the development of stable democratic governments in Western Europe.

Now, lets discuss to Belt and Road Initiative

China already did a revolution in cheap manufacturing, so they need bigger market for their product.

Hence, the countries from which one belt-one road is passing through, their market will be over-captured by Chinese goods.

對美國來說，馬歇爾計劃為美國商品提供了市場，建立了可靠的貿易夥伴，支撐了西歐的民主政府的穩定發展。

現在來討論一帶一路計劃。

中國已經進行另一場低廉製造業的革命，需要為本國商品尋找更龐大的市場。

因此，一帶一路經過的國家，他們的市場會被中國商品佔領。

How China』s 『Belt and Road』 Compares to the Marshall Plan?

Marshall Plan stated that European countries being aided should accept U.S. investment and import U.S. goods.

Over time, the U.S. dollar has become a tool for stability. China is also seeking to increase the international use of its currency.

The endpoint of OBOR is located in Europe. It shows that China wishes to intensify relations with traditional U.S. allies in Western Europe, which in turn undermines U.S. influence in the region.

中國「一帶一路」計劃和馬歇爾計劃有什麼不同？

馬歇爾計劃規定，接受援助的歐洲國家，應接受美國投資，並進口美國商品。

久而久之，美元成為了穩定的工具。

目前，中國也在尋求增加人民幣的國際使用。

一帶一路計劃的終點是歐洲。

這表明，中國希望加強美國在西歐的傳統盟友的關係

India position between all these drama.

印度在其中的位置。

India is pushing its own North–South Transport Corridor

印度正在追求自己的南北運輸走廊。

Japan is expected to join the Indian foray into the expansion of Iran』s Chabahar port and the adjoining special economic zone.

In eastern Sri Lanka, India & Japan are expected to jointly expand the strategically located Trincomalee port. They are also likely to join hands to develop Dawei port along the Thai-Myanmar border.

日本預計會與印度一道參與伊朗恰巴哈爾港及其毗鄰經濟特區的擴大計劃。

在東邊的斯里蘭卡，印度和日本有望聯合擴大地處戰略位置的亭可馬里港口。

Declining Power:

Presently, China has a strength of $10.87 trillion where as India has $3 trillion.

It is expected to overcome China by 2050.

China experienced a meteoric rise in its economy, reaching years of continued growth in excess of 10 percent. Those days are over.

目前，中國經濟規模為10.87萬億美元，而印度為3萬億美元

不過印度有望在2050年前超過中國

中國經濟經歷了一次迅速崛起，過去那些年頭持續以兩位數的速度增長。這樣的好日子結束了。

China』s most recent quarterly growth was just under 7 percent, with projections continuing to decline over the next decade and beyond.

中國最近的經濟增速不到7%，增速在未來10多年可能繼續放緩。

Sustaining the growth of China』s military and economic power will become more difficult, and will soon begin a slow and potentially unrecoverable decline.

維持中國軍事和經濟發展會變得越來越困難，很快會開啟一個緩慢而又不可恢復的衰退。

And, then India will start playing her role. So, China will become superpower but will not be able to sustain for long.

Thanks for reading such a long post.

到時候就是輪到印度登台亮相了

所以，中國會崛起為超級大國，不過不會長久。

謝謝

Aaron Manuel, former I Am Just Another Engineer

Updated May 28

I think India will be the next super power only if India is prevented from fudging data like how the Chinese did

WHY NOT CHINA ? :

1)China has a massive bubble economy =It is on the verge of collapsing .It has for years manipulated and inflated the numbers in various provinces .It』s actual growth rate is below 4%

我覺得，唯有印度不再像中國人那樣杜撰數據，印度才會崛起為下一個超級大國

為什麼不是中國？

1、中國經濟存在巨大泡沫，正處在崩潰的邊緣。

不同省份虛報數據。真實經濟增速不到4%

2)Less exports will hurt the already fragile Chinese economy = Growth in many western countries are saturated .With the presidency of Trump ,the Americans are going to impose more import duties on Chinese products to help their economy and to create more jobs in America but these increased import duties will badly hurt the cheap export industries .Since Chinese depends on their exports and has a major share on their G.D.P ,declining exports will make the Chinese government to cut spending on social welfare

2、

3)Aging population of China =Less workforce

Because of the one Child policy ,the growth rate and demands are going to go down ,With more and more people joining the above 70 camp ,the welfare spending and pension programes will dent a huge in the already dwindling reserves ***

3.不斷老齡化的中國人口，意味著勞動力減少

由於中國以前實行獨生子女政策，所以經濟增速會放緩，需求也會減少。

隨著70歲以上人口越來越多，養老開支會造成巨大負擔。

4)China』s ghost cities

This is one of 1000s of many hastily built ghost cities but no one is occupying it .That means the real estate markets are already down and this is how the Spanish economy collapsed in 2007–2011 .It is just a matter of time

4、中國的鬼城

這是中國很多鬼城中的一座，沒有人居住

這意味著，房地產市場已經在走下坡路。

2007-2011年，西班牙經濟就是這樣崩潰的。時間問題而已

Katharina Sikorski, worked at India

Answered Wed

China will not be a next superpower – there is no need to become one. China already is a global superpower. India is not.

While Indian media are full of 「we will become superpower」 and 「India-China comparison」 articles (and this has been a discourse well over a decade now), the Chinese media do not bother – India is not considered a competitor or an equal partner:

中國不會成為下一個超級大國的

中國沒有必要啊，已經是超級大國了啊，而印度不是

印度媒體大篇幅報道「我們會成為超級大國」，大肆對比印度和中國。

過去10多年一直津津樂道。

而中國媒體壓根就不在乎，印度並未被視為競爭者

Pavan Addanki, Indian forever !!

Answered May 30

As an Indian, I am fascinated by China and what is stands for in the modern world today. I keep reading stories of comparisons of India』s and China』s economy. Many have predicted that both will become bitter rivals in the near future and will aim to outdo the other. Some say that China already has a head start over India as it opened it』s economy very early, while India was late. Many say that China』s economy is many years ahead and it will take years for India to catch up with it.

作為印度人，我對中國著迷了。中國代表當今現代世界。

我一直讀有關中印經濟比較的文章。

許多人預測，兩國在近期會成為競爭對手，預測兩國都會致力於超過對方。

有些人說，中國對印度有著先發優勢，因為中國很早就開放了經濟，而印度動作遲緩。

許多人說，中國經濟領先很多年，印度需要很多年來追趕。

But that depends on whether India really wants to catch up with China.

這取決於印度是否真的想要追趕中國

No one can accurately predict the future and how conditions will be (except if you are Nostradamus). But as an Indian, I can tell you one thing. I really don』t care if China stays ahead of India in the long run. As an Indian, I am focussed only on India and looking for ways and means to make my country a heaven. Our politicians are focussed on making India a better place for present and future generations. They work tirelessly day and night to ensure better governance and more opportunities and economic freedom for our citizens. What matters is not whether our neighbour is a super power or not. What matters is that the citizens of our country stay happy, healthy, peaceful and prosperous.

沒有人能準確預測未來。

作為印度人，我要說自己真的不在乎中國是否領先印度。

作為印度人，我只關注印度，致力於尋找方法讓國家成為天堂。

我關注的是我們的政客是否為子孫後代建設美好的國家。

是否孜孜不倦地工作，是否為公民創造更多機會和經濟自由。

鄰國是否是超級大國，對我來說並不重要。

重要的是我們公民幸福健康、和平繁榮。

Ashwin Kosaraju, Legal writer at Government of India (2016-present)

Answered May 18

Originally Answered: Who will be the next superpower, India or China?

Technically China is already a superpower, (permanent veto member of the UN) and India is becoming a super power, in terms of military strength, naval capacity, army reserves, nuclear warheads, GDP, and so on. It will take quite a few years before we can catch up.

從技術指標來說，中國已經是超級大國，是擁有否決權的聯合國常任理事國

從軍事力量、海軍實力、預備役和核彈頭、GDP等指標來看，印度正崛起為超級大國

要趕上去，我們還要很多年

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