正在枯竭的土地資源

馬爾地夫首都馬累

讓我們一起治癒地球母親，讓她成為更好的家園，部分歌詞節選：

There are ways to get there 道路廣大

If you care enough for the living 唯有對生命之關懷

Make a little space 小小空間

Make a better place ... 創造一個更好的世界

Heal the world 治癒世界

Make it a better place 為你我

For you and for me 為人類全體

And the entire human race 創造更好世界

There are people dying 有人正瀕臨死亡

If you care enough for the living 如果你對生命關懷足夠

Make it a better place 為你我

For you and for me 創造一個更好的世界

Heal the world we re living 治癒我們生活的世界

Save it for our children 為我們的下一代拯救地球母親

原文作者：理查德·格雷

從天上俯瞰，這一整座城市好似就漂浮在印度洋上，鱗次櫛比的高樓聳立在碧藍的海水中，屈指可數的綠樹扎掙著衝破水泥森林的桎梏。

From the sky, it looks like an entire city is adrift in the Indian Ocean. A forest of tower-blocks rise above the emerald-coloured water while just a handful of trees poke through the canopy of concrete.

對那些住在過度擁擠的馬爾地夫首都馬累（Malé, Maldives）的人來說，除了縱向抬升之外別無他法。

For those living in Malé, the overcrowded capital of the Maldives, there is no choice but to build upwards.

受制於四面的海水，沒有更多的土地供他們橫向拓展，然而全城的人口自2006年起飆升了52%。2014年最近一次的人口普查顯示，在這片5.7平方公里的土地上，擠進去了15萬8000人，官方表示這個數字還有所增加。

Caged by the sea, they have no more land to spread onto, yet the city』s population has soared by nearly 52% since 2006. The last census in 2014 counted158,000 people crammedinto the city』s 2.2 sq miles (5.7 sq km) of space, and officials say the figure has since grown further.

「人們想到馬爾地夫時，通常印入腦海的是有著水晶般清澈瀉湖和白雪般細膩沙灘的美麗天堂。」最近當選的副市長莎馬烏·沙里（Shamau Shareef）夫說，「馬累則很不同了，我們這裡地盤有限，而且生活艱難。」

「When people think of the Maldives, it is usually of a beautiful paradise with crystal clear lagoons and white sand beaches,」 says Shamau Shareef, the city』s recently elected deputy mayor. 「Malé is very different. We have very limited space and life is tough.」

馬累的空間實在是太寶貴了，人行道通常不到三英尺寬，這就逼迫行人在步行時排成一條線，而很多街道根本沒有人行道。

Space is such a premium in Malé that pavements are often less than three feet wide, forcing pedestrians to walk in single file, while many streets have no sidewalk at all.

馬爾地夫擁擠的微型首都正受到各種土地問題的困擾，這是地圖上的馬累

房價高的離譜，在一些最貧困的地區，多達40個人蝸居在僅僅23.2平米的小房子內，這相當於一個小型工作室公寓的尺寸。

Rents have risen exorbitantly and, in some of the poorest areas, up to 40 people can be crammed into buildings with just 250 sq feet (23.2 sq metres) of space - about the same size as a small studio flat.

這麼多人蜷在一起生活，犯罪、毒品、家庭暴力等已經來到了高度危險的邊緣，全城還經常停水。填埋在海中的城市廢物，已經形成了一座完整的新島嶼。

With so many people living under each others』 feet, crime, drugs and domestic violence have risen alarmingly while the city frequently runs out of water. Anentirely new island has risen out of the sea from the city』s garbage.

「上世紀末的時候，城裡面最高的建築才兩層樓高。」沙里夫說，「現在平均海拔抬升到了8層，有一些樓都25層高了。是因為這裡有醫療、教育和工作機會，人們才來到這座城市，但人口過剩正導致許多社會經濟問題。」

「In the early 1990s the tallest buildings in the city were only two storeys high,」 says Shareef. 「Now the average height is eight storeys and some are 25 storeys high. People are coming here because this is where the health, education and jobs are, but overpopulation is leading to many socioeconomic problems.」

雖然極端，馬累是全世界更廣大範圍內發生的一些事情的縮影。每年地球新增8300萬人口，高漲的人口總量正給土地資源帶來日趨深重的壓力。

Although extreme, Malé is an example in miniature of something that is happening on a far larger scale around the world. With 83 million more people appearing on the planet every year, rising populations are placing increasing pressure on the land.

聯合國最新估算表明目前地球上擠進了76億人口，而到了2050年這一數字將上升到98億。本世紀末，他們預測我們的星球將會承載112億人。

TheUN』s latest estimatesstate that there are 7.6 billion people jostling for space on Earth at present and that number will rise to 9.8 billion by 2050. By the end of the century, their projections say there could be 11.2 billion people on our planet.

每一個人都需要安家之所、工作之地和肥沃的土壤來提供食物。他們需要淡水，還需要能量來幫助他們在夜晚取暖或照明前路。

Each of those people will need somewhere to live, a place to work, fertile land to provide them with food. They will need water and energy to stay warm or to light their way at night.

他們想要可以開車通行的道路以及停車的地方。對幸運的人來說，還會有空間供他們消遣和娛樂。

They will want roads to drive on and places to park. For the lucky ones, there will be space for their pastimes and leisure activities.

但對所有人來說，在未來的一個世紀里，他們給土地造成的影響，以及對這些影響的勉強控制，毫無以為將會是人性面臨的巨大挑戰之一。

But for all of them, there can be no doubt the impact they will all have on the land – and those impacts are managed – will be one of the grand challenges facing humanity in the coming century.

過度擁擠的馬累，填埋在海中的城市廢物，已經形成了一座完整的新島嶼

宜居之土vs荒蕪之地

Habitable vs uninhabitable land

首先，對某天人類將完全沒有生存空間的恐懼，很容易就會被駁斥為愚昧的想法。表面上看，地球容納110億人很容易，整個星球上大約有134億公頃土地不會冰封。

At first, it can be easy to dismiss fears that mankind may one day run out of space as ridiculous. Physically, the land can easily accommodate 11 billion people - there are around13.4 billion hectares of ice-free land(51.7 million sq miles) on the planet.

但大片土地因為氣候或者地處偏遠，依然是事實上的荒蕪之地：西伯利亞上巨大的土地是非常不宜居的。而澳大利亞中央部分的大片土地太干過旱，不能支撐很多人在那裡生活，這就意味著澳大利亞的主要人口聚集在海岸線上。

But large tracts of land remain virtually uninhabitable due to their climate or their remote location: Enormous tracts of Siberia are too inhospitable to be lived upon. And the huge landmass at the centre of Australia is too arid to support many people, meaning the majority of its population is clustered along its coastline.

同時，像馬累這樣的城市和都市區域，不可能無限制地生長。城市受到周圍的自然地貌限制，深海高山都會阻擋它們的腳步。而宜居之土也面臨著挑戰，例如過載的城市和增長的人口。

Meanwhile, cities and urban areas, like Malé, cannot keep growing indefinitely. They are bound by the natural landscape that surrounds them, whether it』s ocean or mountains. The land thatishabitable faces challenges, like crowded cities and growing populations.

「如果這裡有大規模的人口，那麼很明顯地，這裡對自然資源和食物生產的需求會大很多。」聯合國人口司司長約翰·威爾莫特（John Wilmoth）說，「不過現在有一些錯誤的觀念，認為控制人口或者限制人口能成為一種解決之道。」

「If you have that many people, there will obviously be a much greater demand for natural resources and food production,」 says John Wilmoth, director of the UN』s Population Division. 「But there has been a lot of misplaced attention that has tried to look at population control or limitation as a solution.」

專家表示僅僅只關注與人口數量、地球是否有足夠空間容納每個人等問題，是受到誤導的。

Experts say it』s misguided to just focus on population numbers, and whether there』s enough space on the planet to fit everyone.

大片土地因為氣候或者地處偏遠，依然是事實上的荒蕪之地

「人口增長最快的國家，實際上是人均消耗地球資源最少的國家」花費整個職業生涯，研究人類文明對自然環境影響的加州科學院（California Academy of Sciences）執行理事喬納森·弗利警告說，「富裕和發達世界的人們消耗了遠超人均水平的資源。」

「The countries where populations are growing the most are actually using the least of the Earth』s resources per person,」 warns Jonathan Foley, executive director of the California Academy of Sciences who has spent his career studying the impact human civilisation has on the environment. 「Those of us in the rich and developed world consume far more than our fair share.」

我們生活的城鎮總的來說占不到地球3%的土地資源，但是有35-40%被用作農業。當人口增長，許多人擔心更多的土地會投入到農業生產中。而資源管理與土地管理聯繫密切，我們吃什麼、如何種植、以及如何吃等等。

The cities and towns we live in account for less than 3% of the Earth』s total land area, but between 35% and 40% is used for agriculture. As populations grow, many fear that more land will be used up to grow more food. And land management has a lot to do with resource management – what eat, how we grow it, and how we eat it.

要餵飽劇增的人口，一項斯坦福大學調查員進行的研究估計還需要270萬公頃-490萬公頃的額外土地。而世界上還剩下大約4.45億公頃的空餘土地適合作物生長。

To feed the world』s growing population, a study by researchers at Stanford University estimated that between 2.7 million and 4.9 million hectares (10,400-18,900 sq miles) of additional land will be required. There are around 445 million hectares (1.7 million sq miles) thought to be suitable for growing crops left in the world.

研究人員預測，對食物、生物燃料、工業性林地日益增長的需求以及城市化的拓展，人類將在2050年時完全用光這些土地儲備。

The researchers predicted that increasing demand for food, biofuels, industrial forestry and the spread of urbanisation will result inthis reserve of land being completely used up by 2050.

所以在21世紀，我們應當如何管理土地，來讓它不僅能夠容納過剩的人口，還要容納餵飽過剩人口的糧食呢？

So in the 21st Century, how will be able to manage land to not only fit all the extra people, but also to fit all the crops that will feed the extra people?

為農業騰地兒

Making room for farms

有一個壞消息，在當今的世界裡，對新的種植和畜牧場的需求已經佔到了森林毀壞緣由的80%，這消滅了大片豐富的生物多樣性，以及自然沉降溫室氣體的樹木。

The bad news? The demand for new cropland and pastures for animals is already thought to have caused 80% of the deforestation taking place around the world today, wiping out large areas of rich biodiversity and trees that act as natural sinks for greenhouse gases.

不過還有一個好消息，根據弗利的說法，事情可以不用走到這一步。

But the good news? According to Foley, it does not have to be this way.

大量的土地都被浪費了，40%的種植糧食根本沒有人吃

「我們如今利用土地的方式嚴重低效。」他說，「太多的土地被用來栽種牲畜飼料，世界上75%的農業用地都是栽種餵飽我們要吃掉的牲畜的飼料。而世界上大約40%的種植糧食根本沒有人吃，就被扔掉了。這就意味著栽種這些作物的土地都被浪費了。」

「The way we use land right now is extremely inefficient,」 he says. 「So much of our land is being used to grow food for livestock - 75% of the world』s agricultural land is used for feeding animals that we then eat ourselves. About 40% of the food grown in the world is also never eaten by anybody -it is thrown away. That means all that land it is grown on is being wasted.」

所以這給我們提供了一個可能的解決之道：多吃素，少浪費。

So, a possible solution: eat less meat and throw less food away.

目前「已經有所進展了。」弗利說，「中國已經開始研究減少肉製品消費，而在歐美也有減少食物浪費的努力。」抑制消費習慣可以幫助減少農業用地。

Already, 「there is progress being made,」 says Foley. 「China is already talking about reducing meat consumptionand there are efforts toreduce food waste in Europeand US.」 Curbing consumption habits can lead to less land use on agriculture.

而對富裕一點的地區來說，人們的消費遠遠不只是食物。

In wealthier parts of the world, however, our consumption extends far beyond just food.

為增長的中產階級挪地兒

Space for a growing middle class

隨著中國和印度這樣的國家的崛起，世界上很多發展中地區的財富增長，帶來的是全球中產階級的爆發。到2030年，這個群體有望達到49億人。

Increasing prosperity in many parts of the developing world, along with countries like China and India, is leading to a burgeoning global middle class. It』s a group that』s expected to account for 4.9 billion of the population by 2030.

每一個中產階級都會購買冰箱、手機、電視、電腦和汽車，在接下來的20年里對能源的需求將會翻倍。

With each of these people buying refrigerators, mobile phones, televisions, computers and cars, the demand for energy is expected to double over the next two decades.

而在像馬累這樣人口爆炸的小型首都，這是一個很難克服的巨大挑戰。

And in a place like Malé – a tiny capital with an exploding population – that』s a grand challenge to tackle.

「我們需要少擔心一點是不是種不夠糧食或者能源不夠這種事情了，我們需要看一看消費的後果。」聯合國的約翰·威爾莫特說，「伴隨人口增長，如果全世界的生活質量還在提升，那麼這將加在一起對地球和環境造成更大的影響。」

「We need to be worrying less about whether we are going to be able to grow enough food or provide enough energy and look at the aftereffects of consumption,」 argues the UN』s John Wilmoth. 「If we have improvements in living standards around the world occurring as population is growing, they will multiply to have much a larger effect on the Earth and the environment.」

整個世界在減緩氣候變化的努力中將如何滿足這樣的需求，會極大的影響我們可以支配的土地份額。而這對地球海岸線上高度稠密的人口中心們來說是一個問題。

Exactly how the world will meet this demand in the face of efforts to reduce climate change could greatly affect how much land we have at our disposal. And that』s a problem for the highly dense population centres on Earth』s coasts.

海水上漲，侵蝕海岸線

Rising seas claim coastal land

歷史上來說，海岸地區的中產階級和財富崛起是受到貿易的推動。這也是的海岸線上的城市成為一些地球上人口最為擁擠的地區。

Historically, trade has fuelled the rise of middle classes and wealth in coastal areas. That』s led many of those cities to be some of the most crowded on our planet.

德國基爾大學（Kiel University）研究員的調查和英國廷德爾氣候變化研究中心（Tyndall Centre）估計在2000年時，有6.25億人口居住在低矮的海岸地區。而到了2060年，他們預測這個數據會飆升到超過10億。

A study by researchers at Kiel University in Germany and the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research in the UK estimated that there were 625 million people living in low lying coastal areas in 2000. By 2060 they predict this will have soared to more than a billion.

但是考慮全球變暖的因素，情況就變得複雜了很多。

But add in climate change, and things get a lot more complicated.

「沿海地區空間有限，所以那裡的環境和生態系統承受著很大的壓力。」基爾大學領導這個研究的海岸危機和海平面上升問題的專家芭芭拉·紐曼（Barbara Neumann）說。

「The coast is a restricted space and so there is a lot of pressure on the environment and ecosystems there,」 says Barbara Neumann, an expert on coastal risks and sea level rise at Kiel University who led the study.

「舉個例子來說，沙丘的作用好比自然洪水屏障。如果我們把它們都清除了，我們就移除了很多應對海岸風暴和海平面上漲的防護。」

「Sand dunes act like a natural flood barrier, for example. If we take them away we remove a lot of the protection against coastal storms and rising sea levels.」

她警告說，由於全球變暖導致的海平面上漲，很可能使得本就人滿為患的海岸地區壓力倍增。像馬爾地夫這樣的島國，在因此喪失土地的問題上顯得特別脆弱。佛羅里達州的邁阿密市是另一個著名的案例。

Rising sea levels due to climate change are likely to put further pressure on these packed coastal regions, she warns. Island nations like the Maldives are particularly vulnerable to loss of land in this way. Miami in Florida is another famous example.

「馬累海拔只有兩米。」沙里夫解釋道，「在雨季的時候我們已經遭受海水侵襲了，但全球變暖會讓這種情況更糟糕。」

「Malé is just two metres above sea level,」 explains Shareef. 「We already have sea swells during the monsoon each year but climate change is going to make that worse.」

深入內陸地區，增長的人口正不斷侵蝕著土地，而這將會使人類在未來更加脆弱。

Further away from the coast, growing populations are spilling onto land that will leave them more vulnerable in the future.

孟加拉國80%的領土都是沖積平原，幾千萬人正受到每年發作數次的大型洪水的影響。每當此時，土地就顯得彌足珍貴。

In Bangladesh, where 80% of the country is a flood plain, tens of millions of people are affected by vast floods that occur every few years. Suddenly, land is at a premium

甚至像在英國這樣的發達國家，住房壓力造成了易受洪水侵襲地區的大面積開發。在過去的十年間，洪水在這些地區造成的損失已達數十億英鎊。

Even in developed countries like the UK, pressure on housing has resulted in large scale developments on land known to be prone to flooding. In the past decade, flooding in these areas has caused damage that has stretched into billions of pounds.

「我們需要在『人口增長和發展』和維持保護我們的自然環境間的平衡。」紐曼說。例如說低矮的荷蘭地區，通過引導水流湧入的方式已經解決了其洪水問題。包括英國在內的其他國家，已經表示願意效仿這種方法。

「We need to balance the population growth and development with conserving the natural systems that protect us,」 says Neumann. The low-lying Netherlands, for example, has tackled its problems with flooding by giving the water back some space to spill into. It is an approach that other countries, including the UK, have said they hope to follow.

不過變化莫測、混亂不堪的天氣狀況可能不僅僅隻影響城市的土地，它還會影響到周圍區域。

But changing, turbulent weather patterns might not just affect our city』s own land. It could affect our neighbour』s, too.

上漲的海平面正逐漸侵蝕海岸地區

氣候變化導致移民潮

Climate change leads to migration

每年大約2150萬人因為天氣災害相關因素被迫背井離鄉。

Around 21.5 million people are forced to leave their homes due to weather-related disasters each year.

「敘利亞北部的乾旱導致大量的鄉下移民湧入阿勒頗這樣的城市，這成為了我們現在看到的嚴重衝突的導火索。」加拿大前外交大臣、世界難民理事會（World Refugee Council）主席勞埃德·阿克斯沃西（Lloyd Axworthy）說。隨著氣候變化帶來更嚴重的乾旱、洪水和風暴，阿克斯沃西警告說情況很可能變得更糟。

「Drought in northern Syria led to a mass migration of people from rural areas to cities like Aleppo and became one of the spark plugs for the terrible conflict we are seeing there now,」 says Lloyd Axworthy, chair of the World Refugee Council and former foreign minister of Canada. With climate change also expected to exacerbate droughts, floods and storms, Axworthy warns the problem is likely to worsen.

聯合國難民署的最新數據顯示，2016年因為衝突和迫害被迫逃離故土的人數達到了6560萬人，比上一年增加了30萬人，同時創下了二戰以來的新高。

According to theUN Refugee Agency』s latest figures, 65.6 million people were forcibly displaced by conflict and persecution in 2016, around 300,000 more than the previous year and the highest number since World War Two.

「這並非單一事件。」阿克斯沃西警告說，「大片大片的土地正在喪失支撐生活的基本資源。很多政府相當無能，他們根本不管不顧。這就意味著其他國家必須要支撐那些喪失種植或生活土地的人口。」

「This not a one-off,」 warns Axworthy. 「There are big areas of land that are running out of the fundamentals of life. Many governments are so bad that they do nothing about this. This means other countries are having to subsidise and support large populations whose own means of growing food or living has been diminished.」

諸多難民因為各種原因逃離故土

這就意味著要替因戰爭、饑荒和乾旱而流離失所的人們尋找安棲之所，有著前所未見的挑戰。去年逃亡的難民中，有2250萬人穿越國界尋求庇護。要為數量如此廣大的人群尋找新的住所已經被證明是困難的，2016年接收難民的國家只批准了18萬9300人落腳定居。大部分難民都居住在巨大的帳篷里，或者作為無國籍個體生活，他們都需要食物、水和庇護之所。

It means there are ever growing challenges to find space for the people uprooted by war, famine and drought. Of the people uprooted last year, 22.5 million sought refuge across international borders. Finding new homes for such large numbers of people is already proving difficult - just 189,300 refugees were admitted by other nations for resettlement in 2016. The majority remain housed in vast camps or living as stateless individuals, all of them requiring food, water and shelter.

在喪失了自己獲取上述生活基本資源的土地之後，他們只能依靠別人的施捨。而像戰爭、饑荒和乾旱等的一系列因素，又使得希臘和烏干達這樣的國家在支配國土之時捉襟見肘。來自徐立業和南蘇丹的難民，已經讓本就稀缺的自然資源嚴重匱乏。

Without land of their own to get these fundamentals of life, they have to rely on others to provide them. A list of factors, like war, famine and drought, complicate what countries like Greece and Uganda can choose to do with their land – an influx of refugees from Syria and South Sudan, respectively, have strained already thinly stretched natural resources.

「一個不分國界的問題」

『A problem that does not recognise borders』

我們會看馬累和世界上很多其他地方，有著比衝突和缺水要簡單很多的誘因，它們正在擠占土地資源。

Back in Malé, and in many other places around the world, more mundane reasons than conflict and water shortages are cramming the land.

長久以來吸引鄉村人口湧入城市的，是之於健保、教育和工作等便利設施的機會。如今超過總數一半的世界人口生活在城市區域。就像馬累一樣，這是給相對狹窄的土地空間雪上加霜。

Access to amenities like healthcare, education and jobs have long drawn rural populations into cities. More thanhalf of the world』s population now live in urban areas. Just like in Malé, this is putting a huge strain on relatively small patches of land.

城市生活還需要細緻的規劃。當世界上很多城裡人都生活在擁有自來水、環衛和垃圾處理等相對舒適環境中時，發展中國家的城市正受到沒有上述基建的平民窟的摧殘。

City living also requires careful planning - while many in the world live relatively comfortable urban lives with running water, sanitation and waste disposal, cities in the developing world are blighted by huge slums where no such infrastructure exists.

亞非兩洲的城市化進程快於世界其他任何地區。到2020年，非洲有望以5.6億城市人口的數據成為地球上城市化水平第二高的大洲，而亞洲則會有24億人住在城市。然而根據經濟發展合作組織（OECD）的說法，非洲的城市基建跟不上城市化的步伐，過度擁擠將普遍存在。

Africa and Asia are urbanising faster than any other parts of the world. By 2020 Africa is expected to be our planet』s second most urbanised continent with 560 million people dwelling in cities while Asia will have 2.4 billion. Yet according to the OECD, urban infrastructure in Africa is failing to keep pace and overcrowding is rife.

「挑戰不在於地方不夠用，而是說我們根本就沒有考慮到人們該住在哪兒，以及他們將經歷怎樣的生活水平。」洛克菲勒大學（Rockefeller University）和哥倫比亞大學（ColumbiaUniversity）的人口實驗室負責人喬爾·科恩（Joel Cohen）說，「最貧困的國家裡人口增長最快，而這些地方已經有貧民窟了。有估計表明，在本世紀末貧民窟可能還會新增十億人口。」

「The challenge is not that there is not enough space, but that we are not thinking about where people will be and what quality of life they will experience,」 says Joel Cohen, head of the Laboratory of Populations at Rockefeller University and Columbia University. 「Population growth is occurring most rapidly in the poorest countries where there are already slums. There are estimates that there could be an additional billion people living in slums by the end of the century.」

簡而言之，挑戰無處不在。

In short, every place as its own challenges.

在馬爾地夫這樣一個以自然美景聞名的國度，擁擠狹窄的首都馬累，自然已經被壓榨殆盡。在我們已經度過的所有其他挑戰之上，生態友好儼然高居問題榜單之首。

In the cramped conditions of Malé, whose Maldives are famed for their natural beauty, nature has been squeezed almost completely out in its capital city. On top of all the other challenges we』ve already gone through, eco-friendliness is yet another bullet to add to the list.

「20年前我們這裡還綠樹成蔭。」副市長沙里夫說，「如今為了給建設讓路，它們基本上已經全部被砍光了。」

「Twenty years ago we still had a lot of trees here,」 says deputy mayor Shareef. 「Now they have almost all been chopped down to make way for buildings.

如此種種可見一斑。也許正是地球上土地太常見了，加之其在生存方面的根基地位，才造成了這一連串的問題。

And so on and so forth. Perhaps land』s pervasiveness on the planet, as well as its role as a basic building block of existence, is what invites such an array of issues.

地球的確有更多的空間來容納更多的人口，但是現在已經是21世紀了，也許我們真正需要提出的問題是，這些土地我們該怎麼去使用、與誰共享。

The planet can certainly find space for many more of us to live on. But in the 21st Century, perhaps the real question we need to ask ourselves is who – and what – we want to share that land with.

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