住建部各位老爺說要明確「租售同權」 小爺你爽了沒有？滙豐：人口趨勢和我們對租戶的研究 購房需求影響不大

住建部各位老爺說要明確「租售同權」 小爺你爽了沒有？ 滙豐：人口趨勢和我們對租戶的研究 購房需求影響不大

先播放一段早間新聞聯播：

住建部稱將立法明確「租售同權」：租房與買房居民享同等待遇

新華社

住建部有關負責人說，將通過立法，明確租賃當事人的權利義務，保障當事人的合法權益，建立穩定租期和租金等方面的制度，逐步使租房居民在基本公共服務方面與買方居民享有同等待遇。

生活在新聞聯播里，真是一種幸福，按照住建部老爺們發言的字面解釋，今後所有人，不管是誰，在一個城市裡面，不管是租房子住或者是你買了房子駐，那麼你將可以享受同樣的權利。每年畢業的700萬大學生屌絲，各位小爺這下要爽了吧。

單絲，淡市，港督會得相信迭戈事體（上海話）

租售同權將建立中國房地產發展的長效機制（普通話）。

看起來是一個美麗的童話

雖然從字面上理解，租售同權完全是一個正面的理想，但就住建部這個層面看，除了理想正確，租售同權到目前為止恐怕只是一個美麗的童話。

1.誰可以

比如在廣州的《方案》中明確，具有本市戶籍的適齡兒童少年、人才綠卡持有人子女等政策性照顧借讀生、符合市及所在區積分入學安排學位條件的來穗人員隨遷子女，其監護人在本市無自有產權住房，以監護人租賃房屋所在地作為唯一居住地且房屋租賃合同經登記備案的，由居住地所在區教育行政主管部門安排到義務教育階段學校（含政府補貼的民辦學校學位）就讀。也就是說，以後在廣州租房，符合條件的承租人子女可就近入學。

2.夢醒

當小編睜大眼睛仔細看清楚之後，夢醒明白，你首先要是合格的一個人，什麼是一個合格的人口呢，本市，或者人才綠卡等....假如我是一個農民，我有錢，北上廣都被限購，我買不了房子，也根本享受不到這個租售政策的恩澤。

從根本上說，小編是全民平等的堅決支持者，但在教育資源和醫療資源集中在北上廣等大城市的情況下，人人都想去這些地方同權，實際上根本不可能。

比如教育，上海2017年有差不多5萬名考生，復旦交大招生差不多在上海1200名左右，而河南好像是86萬人，錄取多少呢？這個是根本不可能同權的。

3.影響

首先當然是確實少部分人，尤其不能買房當可以租房的人，可以享受到政策額恩澤，也可能改變房地產市場的一些情況。但是，對於城市來說，這樣的政策可能更為加劇學區房的問題，教育資源不可能聽從住建部的安排，小編推演看，可能學區房的價格更高了（因為不愁租不出去啊，變成一個長期投資的金融產品了），租賃價格更高了（因為租賃到了可以做二房東啊），而政府博弈中可能強制不能如何如何，但最後呢...不知道。

滙豐：人口趨勢和我們對租戶的研究 購房需求影響不大

此前小編髮過滙豐對20個未來牛B城市的研究，現在這個政策....滙豐的意思，如果小編沒有理解錯誤的話，就是 然並卵！

Another push towards promoting the rental housing market. Last week, Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development (MOHURD) released a notice to promote rental housing development in major cities with population inflows. The MOHURD shortlisted 12 pilot cities, including Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Nanjing, Hangzhou, Xiamen, Wuhan, Chengdu, Shenyang, Hefei, Zhengzhou, Foshan and Zhaoqing,where the government-run rental housing transaction platform will be established to better regulate the rental market. The notice also cited idle and commercial units could be converted into rental units to increase supply in the market.

Coincidentally, phoenix cities are under the spotlight. The push towards the rental market isn』t new, as the State Council has issued a circular on this topic in June 2016. The latest effort is targeted at cities with strong population inflow.

Specifically, six out of the twelve cities of focus are phoenix cities we have identified as key beneficiaries of strong migration-driven housing demand. The comforting fact is that the government appears to share a similar view that these cities are well positioned to enjoy more sustainable, longer-term housing demand; hence, the need to divert buyers to the rental market so as to prevent a further run in property prices.

Phoenix cities – our thesis remains unchanged. While there is limited data on tenants』 profile in China, we are able to extract data from online platforms to take an initial stab at understanding this rather pre-mature market segment. According to SooToo.com, c80% of tenants (who have rented a flat via online platforms) are aged between 20 and 29, consistent with statistics from Chinese Academy of Social Sciences which cite that 77% of all tenants in the tier-1 cities are aged between 20 and 30; based on the fact that the average age of first marriage is 26, we have reasonable basis to argue that rental demand is mainly driven by the younger generation that will shortly get on the property ladder. Culturally, owning a property is still seen as a prerequisite for marriage. Using these data as a guide, we believe home purchase demand should remain intact. Hence, our thesis that phoenix cities will lead a new phase of home price growth remains intact. Please refer to China Real Estate: Catching phoenixes published on 5 June 2017 for details.

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