麥格里中國經濟：基本面和流動性之間的博弈 人民幣未來12個月看還是看貶！

?A tug of war between fundamentals and liquidity:The divergence above is

largely due to the different liquidity conditions onshore and offshore. Offshore

China is impacted by global liquidity flows, whose direction was from DM to

EM in 1H17. However, Onshore China is impacted by domestic liquidity flows,

which are weighed on by tight regulations. Interestingly, the reason that policy

makers could focus more on financial regulation than on stimulus is because

of the resilient economic growth, which means solid fundamentals for

Offshore China. Looking ahead, we are expecting a mix of deteriorating

fundamentals and improved liquidity, so the divergence between Onshore and

Offshore China should narrow in 2H17 (What could surprise in 2H17, 19 June).

? Assessment on short-term fundamentals and liquidity:China』s economy

held up pretty well in 2Q17, when GDP could grow 6.7% yoy, compared with

6.9% in 1Q17. The NBS manufacturing PMI in June, released last Friday,

rose to 51.7 (consensus: 51.0) from 51.2. It points to strong external demand,

as New Export Orders rose to the highest level since 2012. It also shows

some ease of disinflation, so PPI might stabilize temporarily in June. That

said, we believe the pick-up of the PMI in June is more likely to be a blip,

which doesn』t change the broad downward trend. In the short term, with falling

inventory and eased concerns on liquidity, steel and iron ore prices could be

supported by demand from inventory stocking. Regarding the liquidity in the

financial system, the situation has improved since mid-June, as the PBoC is

very careful in avoiding another credit crunch like the one in June 2013.

However, given economic growth is still running well above 6.5%, the next

couple of months remain as the window to deleverage the financial system.

But we expect the focus to shift to supporting growth later this year.

?Strongest quarterly performance for the RMB in nine years:The RMB

against the US$ just had its best quarter since 2Q08, strengthening by 1.6%

in 2Q17. It is another factor behind the strong performance in Offshore China,

whose price is traded in HK$/US$ but revenue is denominated in RMB. At the

beginning of the year, the markets had priced in a substantial amount of RMB

depreciation expectation for this year. Therefore, the surprising strengthening

of the RMB in 1H17 has fuelled the rally so far. Looking ahead, in the next six

months, the RMB will largely depend on the strength of the US$. We met 10+

large macro hedge funds in the past week and the consensus points to a

weakening US$ in 2H17. However, past experiences show that one should be

very cautious on any consensus view on US$. In any case, if the US$

strengthens, the RMB could depreciate in 2H17. However, from a 12-month or

even longer point of view, we believe the RMB is more likely to appreciate.

Such view is mainly based on our understanding

點擊展開全文

喜歡這篇文章嗎？立刻分享出去讓更多人知道吧！