德意志銀行報告：大概4000億消費貸款被用於買房了！

德意志銀行報告：大概4000億消費貸款被用於買房了！

生活在這個豐富多彩的國度，有些事情總是想不通，比如錢這事，就一直想不通，後來看到底牌才知道原來如此。

一個是感覺很多企業總有花不完的錢，開始是郭廣昌，後來是王健林，再後來又吳小暉，還有買菜的那個誰啊，反正睜開眼睛就是這幾個人在全世界買呀買的，後來才知道他們是用國內銀行的貸款或者保費等換成外匯出去了。

一個是感覺銀行印了這麼多錢，為什麼沒有通貨膨脹呢，後來只知道很多貪官污吏在家裡藏現金，所以印刷出來的錢都沒有進入流通。

一個是感覺很多人總有花不完的錢，他們可是平常普通人啊，他們做啥呢，天天玩，手中還有好幾套房。後來才知道他收入2萬多，每個月還貸款要3-4萬，後來才知道他辦了好幾張信用卡，每張信用卡可以刷，還可以辦消費貸款，然後消費貸款就可以用來花。

刷新的價值觀

消費貸款買房越來越多

光就消費貸款很多用來買房的事情，確實刷新了小編的價值觀。

從小開始，在中國人的思想中，借錢總不是個東西，總不是個好東西，所以中國人一般有了錢呢就存錢，誰要是去銀行借錢花，或者用信用卡刷錢，那可是個沒出息破罐子的形象，拿小編來說，雖然也是辦了幾張信用卡，還有支付寶的免息的錢，好幾張卡還經常來推銷大筆的消費貸款，但每次一花掉回家第一個事情就經常是先還錢，雖然知道這不用花利息，反正總是覺得自己很巴的。

但2個事情現在開始起變化了。第一是90後的消費觀念，去到各種地方，其實先消費的情況越來越多，這其實從p2p的校園貸可以看出來，這麼高的利息情況下，這麼多人女孩子可以不穿衣服做貸款去，還有一個就是一夜暴富的房地產思想，房地產在過去的30年中確實如此，只要你買到了你就是賺了，所以只要不擇手段借到錢買到房，你就賺錢錢了，小編一個同事，前年為了買北京一個房子，不惜假離婚，再貸款幾百萬，小編想來真是瘋狂，但他卻是賺錢了。就是這樣的現狀和扭曲的刷新的價值觀下，造成了房地產的瘋狂，造成了很多人不惜代價搞錢！而在他們看來，消費貸款是最合法的。。。其實是不合規的錢錢。

現在，各銀行正在追討消費貸款的單據，市場預測在3000億，德意志銀行認為在4000億，也有認為超過8000億的，那麼如果來真的，這些炒房者怎麼辦》？小編不知道。

德意志銀行報告

大概4000億消費貸款被用於買房了！

基本結論：

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1

We estimate 2/3 to consumption, 1/3 to home equity loans

There is a notable trend in past months that China』s short-term consumer debt has suddenly been picking up to around 35% yoy and making up c.10% of net new credit creation (see report China』s consumer debt boom). What puzzled us and the market is where this short-term credit was deployed. Our studies show that the growth of short-term consumer debt was mainly driven by decent consumption growth (c.2/3 of Rmb1.4tr new consumption loans YTD), as households are borrowing more to buy autos and other goods online, decorate new homes and travel. The other one-third is home equity loans, which were to finance purchases of second homes under stricter home purchase restrictions.

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2

Stable but decent growth in consumer goods partly explains the story

We looked at the recent sales growth of major consumer goods and services that may need short-term financing e.g. automobiles, online sales, home decoration, home appliances and travel etc. Most of these consumer goods delivered stable, but decent growth of high-single digit to mid-teens yoy sales volume. Meanwhile, the penetration of credit in consuming these goods and services is rising steadily. Credit cards are clearly the key measure to obtain bank credit for consumption purposes, with the loan balance amounting to Rmb4.7tr as of June 2017, up 31% yoy (see our report China』s credit card boom for details). In our view, the underlying drivers include structural consumption upgrades, changes in consumer behavior and also wealth effects from property price increases.

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3

c.Rmb400bn YTD to finance purchases of property

Nonetheless, consumption growth with rising credit penetration does not fully explain the sudden pick-up in short-term consumer debt growth. Reflecting stricter home purchase restrictions, some home buyers were required to pay a higher proportion of the transaction amount as a downpayment and hence, were forced to turn to other financing channels to obtain home equity loans, such as banks』 unsecured consumer lending. We estimate that in 8M17, there was approximately Rmb400bn of new consumer loans that were used to finance purchases of property. We believe the risks related to property-related financing are limited. The size is small, as Rmb400bn only makes up 1% of total consumer debt. More importantly, the financing is supported by genuine upgrade demand rather than investment or speculation demand. The PBOC』s credit data system and banks』 proactive post-lending management should also relieve the risks.

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4

Expecting ST consumer loans to slow, but at decent growth; Buy retail banks

Regulators in various municipalities including Beijing, Shenzhen and Jiangsu have warned of the risks of illegal home equity loans and released guidelines to rein in the aggressive expansion. As such, we expect short-term consumer loans to slow in the coming months, but still at a decent growth rate as consumption growth is likely to remain resilient. Banks with faster growth in consumption loans are likely to be subject to regulatory risks. We remain positive on the big banks, as they have the strongest retail banking franchise among peers, with less property-related lending. Our top picks remain ICBC and BOC.

Putting it into the context of total Chinese debt (Figure 2), household debt of Rmb39tr made up 18% of the total debt balance. A further breakdown shows that mortgages are the largest part or 57% of the total. Fast-growing shortterm consumer loans are comprised of credit cards (12% of household debt) and other consumption loans (5%).

However, while the spike in consumer debt has gained market attention, there remained the question as to where exactly the short-term consumer credit was deployed. Our studies in this report unveil that it is actually driven by both decent consumption growth and home equity loans (to a lesser extent).

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