1966年的青少年們怎樣預測2000年的生活？
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BBC最近公布視頻，記錄了1966年的青少年對2000年的種種預測。那時的孩子對未來非常沮喪，悲觀派遠超樂觀派。
Screenshot: Facebook
One of the highlights of the past fortnight』sjollitywas a six-minute clip, placed by the BBC Archive on social media. A class of teenagers in 1966 attempted to predict what life would be like in the year 2000. The footage from Tomorrow』s World, a BBC television programme, was viewed close to half a million times in its first four days online and attracted about 4,000 comments. It is fascinating for anyone interested in futurology.
英國廣播公司(BBC)檔案部在社交媒體上發布的一段6分鐘視頻短片，成了最近節日氣氛的亮點之一。視頻中，一個班級的青少年在1966年試著預測2000年的生活會是什麼樣的。這段來自BBC《明日世界》(Tomorrow』s World)節目的短片，上線四天內的點播量接近50萬次，吸引了4000多條評論。對於那些對未來學感興趣的人，這段視頻令人神往。
jollity [?d?ɑl?ti]n. 歡樂，愉快
例句: That kind of jollity was not for him, it never had been and never would be. 這種歡樂他是享受不到的，今後也不會享受到。
The children of 1966 were a profoundly gloomy lot. Pessimists outnumber optimists by six to one.The miserabilists are principally worried about a nuclear apocalypse, which several regard as inevitable. Overpopulation is mentioned repeatedly, as is unemployment caused by automation and computers. Factory farming comes up, as does boredom occasioned by uniformity, rationing — and the prospect of having to live on food pills.
1966年的那群孩子們對未來非常沮喪。悲觀派遠超樂觀派，比例為6：1。悲觀派主要擔心核末日，其中有幾個人認為那是不可避免的。他們反覆提及人口過剩的問題，以及自動化和計算機帶來的失業問題。他們還提到了工廠化農場，還有因整齊劃一統一和配給造成的無趣——以及必須依靠食物丸為食的前景。
Screenshot: Twitter
Climate change isfretted over, after a fashion, by two children. A boy argues that orbiting satellites are interfering with the weather and will cause sea levels to rise 「by 300ft to 600ft」. A girl believes the sun will burn out and start an ice age.
兩個孩子勉強算是對氣候變化感到不安。其中一個男孩認為，在軌衛星干擾了天氣，將造成海平面上升「300至600英尺」。一個女孩認為，太陽將燃燒殆盡，在地球上開啟一個冰河期。
fret over不安；苦惱
例句: Do not fret over trifles.別為小事而煩惱。
Screenshot: Twitter
Another boy takes a different tack: 「People will be regarded more as statistics than as actual people.」 Another imagines: 「I may be at the funeral of a computer, or if something goes wrong with a nuclear bomb, coming back from hunting while living in a cave.」 I like that.
另一個男孩採取了截然不同的思路：「人們將在更大程度上被視為統計數字，而不是實實在在的人。」另一個孩子想像道：「我可能會去參加一個計算師的葬禮，或者如果一枚核彈出了問題，我會在洞穴內生活，外出打獵謀生。」我喜歡這個想法。
Screenshot: Twitter
The outnumbered optimists speak of racial harmony, of rich and poor still existing but getting on fine, of medical advances, and of better architecture (「more rounded and less boxy」). One girl』s optimism is non-specific: 「People think the earth will explode but it won』t,」 she says.
人數處於劣勢的樂觀派談到了種族和諧，提到富人和窮人仍會存在，但兩個群體和諧相處，還提到了更好的建築設計（「房子會更圓，而不那麼像方盒子」）。有一個女孩的樂觀比較籠統：「人們認為地球會爆炸，但不會的，」她說道。
Screenshot: Twitter
For the most part, those viewing the clips have taken from it exactly what they wished. If their big worry is climate change, they seize on the 1966 interviewees』 mention of the weather as being super-perceptive. The child who says we will all be mere statistics by 2000 — not a particularly brilliant point — is hailed as a veritable seer by those who believe we are all helpless subjects of Google and Amazon.
大體上，看過這段視頻的人都找到了合乎自己願望的內容。如果他們最大的擔憂是氣候變化，他們便會抓住1966年的受訪者提到天氣這一點，認為他們的觀察力超級敏銳。那個說我們到2000年都將只是統計數字——並非特別精闢的一點——的孩子，被那些認為我們都是受谷歌(Google)和亞馬遜(Amazon)擺布的可憐蟲的人譽為真正的先知。
Screenshot: Google.com
The Tomorrow』s World children seem serious andarticulate, but their speculation mirrors only the stock dismal concerns of the day. Also missing is much of the era』s upbeat stuff on space exploration, technological marvels and cultural changes. As for the children』s predictions proving accurate, I am afraid I do not agree — albeit as a perennial optimist and enthusiast for the 21st century.
《明日世界》里的孩子似乎認真而且善於表達，但他們的猜測反映的只是當時典型的悲觀擔憂。另外視頻中還缺少對當時的正面事物的討論，比如空間探索、科技奇蹟以及文化變化。至於孩子們的預測被證明準確，我不能認同——儘管我一直是個樂觀者，對21世紀充滿熱情。
articulate[ɑ:r?t?kjule?t]adj.善於表達的
例句:She is an articulate young woman.她是一個口才很好的年輕女子。
Photo credit: Getty Images
For me, the Tomorrow』s World clip has highlighted how we should be wary of basing prognostication on what is currently fashionable. Modish concerns rarely turn out to be on the money.
對我而言，《明日世界》這段視頻突顯了我們應該如何警惕根據當前潮流進行預測。趕時髦的擔憂很少被證明是真正的先見之明。
The late Adrian Berry, a British science writer and Fellow of the Royal Astronomical Society, went so far as to argue that humans fret over imaginary dangers, and that the degree of panic tends to be in inverse proportion to real peril.
已故的英國科學作家阿德里安?貝里(Adrian Berry)是皇家天文學會(Royal Astronomical Society)的成員。他甚至認為，人類對想像中的危險感到擔憂，而恐慌程度往往與真正的危險成反比。
Photo credit: Getty Images
My nomination, then, for the leadingmisplacedfear of 2018 is artificial intelligence, which has dominated the future-gazing agenda for the past year.
那麼，我提名的2018年頭號無厘頭擔憂是人工智慧(AI)——過去一年AI主導著未來預測的議程。
misplaced [?m?s?ple?st]adj.寄託錯的
例句:Lenders rely on the misplaced loyalty of existing borrowers to make their profit.放貸人指望現有借貸人的盲目忠誠來謀求利益。
Photo credit: Getty Images
There are many reasons for believing AI will not turn out be the monster so many fear. Frontline AI experts I have met, such as Ralf Herbrich, Amazon』s head of machine learning, believe claims made for the technology areoverblown.
有很多理由相信AI不會像很多人所擔心的那樣變成可怕的怪物。我見過的第一線AI專家——比如亞馬遜的機器學習主管拉爾夫?赫布里希(Ralf Herbrich)——相信，針對這項技術提出的說法誇大其詞了。
overblown [?o?v?r?blo?n]v.狂吹, (管樂器) 吹得過響
例句: Warnings of disaster may be overblown. 災害預警有被誇大的可能。
Photo credit: Getty Images
Without meaning to be flippant, a good reason for not giving today』s popular concern about AI much credence is precisely that it is a popular concern. If you are predicting what will really trouble us in the future, I commend you to look elsewhere.
我不想顯得油嘴滑舌，但是，之所以不要太相信當今流行的對AI的擔憂，正是因為這是一個流行的擔憂。如果你想預測未來的真正麻煩，我建議你把目光投向其他領域。
2060會是什麼樣？
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