美俄關係：武裝烏克蘭

Arming Ukraine

武裝烏克蘭

American may at last be willing to offer Ukraine weapons

最終，美國人可能會願意給烏克蘭提供武器

At the same time, the Ukrainian government has begun to persecute anti-corruption activists

與此同時，烏克蘭政府已經開啟了對反腐敗積極分子的迫害行動

導讀

導讀：特朗普的成功當選對俄羅斯來說表面看似是個天大的好消息，但這位畫風奇特的總統卻逐漸劍走偏鋒，偏離了俄羅斯預設路線。美國近期表示將提供武器給烏克蘭以對抗俄羅斯，但這並不會使烏克蘭擺脫內憂外患的困境，相反國內掀起的迫害活動使其內部矛盾異常尖銳。烏克蘭的未來將通向何處？此篇文章也許為我們提供些視角。

WHEN Russian members of parliament uncorked champagne to celebrate the electoral victory of Donald Trump, they hoped that America would stopmeddling inthe former Soviet backyard and ease sanctions imposed in response to its war in Ukraine. But as some Russians are now saying, it was too early to drink it.

當俄羅斯國會議員開啟香檳慶祝唐納德?特朗普的成功當選的那一刻，他們滿心期待著美國能夠停止干涉前蘇聯的「後院」（即烏克蘭問題），減輕因烏克蘭戰爭而對俄羅斯施加的制裁。但是正如現在某些俄羅斯人的看法，現在慶祝未免有點為時過早。

On August 2nd Mr Trump reluctantly signed a law whichheaps new sanctions onRussia and limits his ability to lift them. A few days earlier, Mike Pence, America』s vice-president, went to Estonia and Georgia and warned against further aggression from 「your unpredictable neighbour to the east」. And America may soon supply Ukraine with lethal weapons, a step that Barack Obama refused to take.

8月2日，特朗普總統不情願地簽署了一項法案，進一步加大對俄羅斯的制裁，同時總統權力也受到了限制，無法解除制裁。幾天前，美國副總統邁克·彭斯出訪愛沙尼亞和喬治亞，（並在出訪期間）警告兩國要進一步提防「東邊變幻莫測的鄰居」的侵犯。同時，美國可能很快就會向烏克蘭提供殺傷性武器，奧巴馬執政期間曾拒絕採取這一行動。

Mr Obama』s inaction was heavily criticised at the time by many Republicans, including Kurt Volker, a former ambassador to NATO and a close associate of John McCain, a hawkish Republican senator. Last month Mr Volker was appointed by the State Department as America』s special representative to Ukraine. It is up to Mr Trump』s administration to approve the supply of arms to Ukraine, but most members of his cabinet are said to be on board. A decision could come within weeks.

奧巴馬的不作為在當時曾遭到眾多共和黨的強烈批評，其中就包括美國駐北約前大使庫爾特·沃爾克，他也是鷹派共和黨議員約翰·麥凱恩的親密夥伴。上個月，沃克爾被國務院任命為美國駐烏克蘭特別代表。向烏克蘭供應武器這一決議獲特朗普政府批准，但是據說他的內閣多數議員也都紛紛站在這一戰線。最終決議會在數周內出爐。

American officials and their European counterparts are also discussing whether to begin using the terms 「aggression」, 「war」 and 「Russian forces」in place of「conflict」 and 「separatists」with regard tothe fighting in eastern Ukraine. One reason Russian aggression got as far as it did, the argument goes, was that neither the West nor Ukraine was prepared to call it by its proper name. America and its alliesrestrainedUkrainefromfighting when Russia invaded and annexed Crimea—and a weak, post-revolutionary Ukrainian government acquiesced.

在烏克蘭東部衝突問題上，美國官員和他們的歐洲同僚也在討論是否開始使用「侵略」「戰爭」「俄羅斯軍隊」來代替「衝突」和「分裂分子」等辭彙。有觀點認為，俄羅斯的侵略能夠愈演愈烈的一個原因在於西方國家和烏克蘭都沒辦法為其行為找到一個合適的代名詞。當俄羅斯入侵併吞併克里米亞時美國及其同盟國阻止烏克蘭進行反抗，但革命後的烏克蘭政府軟弱無能，只能默許。

Following Russia』s interference in its elections last year, America seems willing to push back more robustly. Members of the Trump administration calculate that Russia has limited scope to escalate. Mr Putin will try to persuade them otherwise. One option might be to occupy Belarus, a former Soviet republic. Another might be to stir political instability in Ukraine.

自從去年俄羅斯干涉美國大選之後，美國似乎願意更有力地給以回擊。特朗普政府的官員預測俄羅斯使戰爭進一步升級的機會很渺茫。否則普京會試圖說服他們的。一種選擇可能是佔領白俄羅斯，這個國家之前曾屬於蘇維埃共和國的一部分。另一種選擇是攪亂烏克蘭穩定的政局。

Awkwardly, America is increasing its support for Ukraine just as Ukraine』s leaders are becoming more focused on their own economic and political fortunes, rather than the good of the country. Last week Petro Poroshenko, Ukraine』s chocolate-tycoon-turned-president,strippedMikheil Saakashvili, a radical anti-corruption reformer,ofUkrainian citizenship. Mr Saakashvili, a former president of Georgia who was forced out of his native country by Bidzina Ivanishvili, its richest oligarch, came to Ukraine after the Maidan revolution in 2014 to carry on with his fight against the post-Soviet malaise.

尷尬的是，隨著烏克蘭的領導人們變得更注重他們自己的經濟和政治命運，而不是國家的利益, 美國卻不斷加大對烏克蘭的支持力度。上周，烏克蘭的「巧克力大王」總統彼得·波羅申科免去了哈伊爾·薩卡什維利的職務，他是一名維護烏克蘭公民權的激進派反腐改革家。薩卡什維利，喬治亞的前總統，後因畢齊納·伊萬尼舍維里（喬治亞最富有的寡頭政治家）被迫離開祖國。他在2014年烏克蘭獨立廣場革命後來到烏克蘭，繼續對抗蘇聯解體後的萎靡不振。

After serving as a governor of Odessa, he fell out with Mr Poroshenko, accusing him of corruption and collusion with oligarchs. In an interview with Ukrainska Pravda, an independent Ukrainian news site, Mr Saakashvili said Mr Poroshenko』s main motivation was making money. Other activists have criticised Mr Poroshenko for lacking the political will to tackle corruption. Government prosecutors have inadvertently provided evidence for that charge by launching attacks on anti-corruption activists.

擔任敖德薩市長一職後，他與彼得·波羅申科分道揚鑣，指控總統腐敗，與寡頭政治家勾結。薩卡什維利在接受烏克蘭一家獨立新聞網站-烏克蘭真理報的採訪時表示，波羅申科先生的主要動機就是賺錢。其它積極分子都批評波羅申科缺乏反腐的政治意願。政府公訴人通過對反腐活動人士發起攻擊，無意中為這一指控提供了證據。

The prosecutors』 latest target is Oleksandr Danyliuk thereform-mindedfinance minister. Mr Danyliuk has tried to make the country』s system of VAT refunds (a major source of corruption) more transparent. He has also tried to prune the budget of the prosecution service. On July 31st the prosecutor general』s office said it was probing his income and property.

檢察官的最新目標是決心改革的財政部長亞歷山大·丹尼魯克。丹尼魯克先生已經嘗試將國家的VAT增值稅退稅制度（腐敗的一個主要來源）更加透明化。他還試圖削減訴訟服務預算。7月31日，總檢察官辦公廳稱，他們正在調查丹尼魯克的收入和財產。

In fact, the finance minister』s problemsstem froma fight between Mr Poroshenko and his own government. Last month, while Mr Danyliuk was in London discussing Ukraine』s economic reforms, the country』s budget was re-carved by the Rada, the parliament, with the help of a close associate of Mr Poroshenko. Some of the changes introduced in Mr Danyliuk』s absence make the budget impossible to fulfil, and resemble dodgy schemes used under the previous regime. The budget also over-estimates the expected tax collection from businesses, creating even more room for extortion.

事實上，財務部長的問題源自波羅申科同他自己政府之間的鬥爭。上個月，當丹尼魯克身在倫敦討論烏克蘭的經濟改革之時，國家預算已經在波羅申科親密助手的幫助下被議會（Tada）再次削減了。在丹尼魯克不在的這段時間，引入的一些修改方案使得預算不可能實現，而且這些修改方案就類似於上一個政權所使用的不可靠方案。同時，預算案也高估了預期的商業納稅額，創造了更大的勒索空間。

No amount of weapons supplied by America will defend Ukraine from the internal malaise which made it vulnerable to Russian aggression in the first place.

美國提供的任何武器都不能保護烏克蘭免受國內萎靡狀態的影響，這也使得烏克蘭從一開始就很容易受到俄羅斯的侵擾。

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