【經濟學人】我是個算命先生

天靈靈，地靈靈，算命看相我最行。正如電影《觀相》中的妓女通過點痣改變了命運，算命行業在韓國長盛不衰的原因在於他們相信命運並非一成不變，三分天註定，七分靠人為。

我是個算命先生

譯者：鄧小雪 & 倪婷 & 魯城華

校對：陳怡蓓

策劃：魯城華

In South Korea fortune-telling will soon be a $3.7bn business

韓國的算命產業規模將很快達到37億美元

But like every other trade, it is having to contend with automation

同其他行業一樣，算命也面臨自動化的競爭

本文選自 The Economist | 取經號原創翻譯

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DESTINY is usually said to lurk in heavy drapes of purple velvet, in the wicked glint of a crystal ball, behind a veil of heady incense or in the tuck of a gold-chiffon turban. Your correspondent went in search of hers among a crush of Korean schoolgirls at the 「Broken Heart Tarot Club」 in booming Hongdae, a university district in Seoul. The café』s faade is an inviting jumble of pink neon signs and glowing graffiti. At the next table, a hip tarot reader spread a deck face-down for two girlfriends in oversized denim jackets, who took turns picking out cards and sipping on their lattes. He looked as cool as them, more rapper than rune-reader, in dark glasses with a chain around his neck.

通常來說，命運隱藏在厚重的紫色天鵝絨帘子下、閃著邪光的水晶球中、煙霧繚繞的熏香背後或由層層金色薄綢製成的頭巾之下。本刊記者前往熱鬧的弘大區（首爾的大學城），跟一群韓國女學生進入「傷心塔羅俱樂部」 ，共同探尋自己的命運。俱樂部像個咖啡館，混合著粉色的霓虹標牌，還有鮮艷的塗鴉裝飾。旁邊的桌子坐著一位時髦的占卜師，對面是一對穿著寬大牛仔夾克的女生，占卜師攤開牌面向下的塔羅牌，女生一邊喝著拿鐵一邊抽牌。占卜師戴著深色墨鏡，脖子上掛著條鏈子，看上去和那兩個女生一樣酷，他更像個說唱歌手而不是占卜師。

Interrogating the decorated cards costs 3,000 won (about $2.75) a question. A tarot reader assesses the character of her clients first. Two flicks of her wrist, and a pair of Queens appears. 「You chose the strongest set in the deck,」 she says brightly. 「Fame is within reach.」 Will a move to a new country go smoothly? The Beggar. 「The start will be hard, but you can succeed if you ask for help.」 Will the Koreas go to war? Death and The Emperor show up, apparently the tarot incarnations of Kim Jong Un (here a scythe-wielding woman in blue veils) and Moon Jae-in, the leaders of North and South Korea. 「Death plays tricks but the Emperor is wise,」 the reader assures.

解牌的費用是每個問題3000韓元（約2.75美元）。占卜師首先會評估客戶們的特質。手腕擺動兩下，一對皇后牌出現了。「你抽中了桌上最強的牌，」她揚聲道，「名望近在咫尺。」能否順利出國？乞丐牌。「開始不易，但如果你尋求幫助就能成功。」韓國會打仗么？抽中了死神和皇帝牌，明顯代表了朝鮮領導人金正恩（一個扛大鐮刀、蒙藍色面紗的女人）和韓國總統文在寅。「死神在耍花樣，但是皇帝是明智的，」占卜師斷言。

「Broken Heart」 is among dozens of fortune-telling businesses on the street, packed between cheap clothes and cosmetics shops. Business is brisk. Other stores offer the Korean arts of face-reading, palm-reading—one entices clients with a detailed mapping of Barack Obama』s raised hand at his presidential swearing-in—and saju. An ancient form of divination, saju analyses the cosmic energy at the hour, day, month and year of a person』s birth from Chinese astrological records and texts. A seer at 「Broken Hearts」 says she began to study saju two decades ago (she says she found it hard to trust other fortune-tellers), but took up tarot recently to keep up with the times. 「The young like it. The cards are pretty, it』s cheap and it』s quick,」 she says.

「傷心塔羅俱樂部」和街頭算命生意一樣，擠在廉價服飾店和化妝品店中間。生意挺紅火。其他店鋪還解韓式面相和手相，有一家甚至用奧巴馬宣誓就職時舉手的分析圖片來向客戶做宣傳。還有生辰八字，這是一種古老的占卜方式，依據中國的占星文獻來分析某人生辰年月。「傷心塔羅俱樂部」的一位預言家說，她二十多年前就開始學習生辰八字（她說她不太相信其他占卜師），但為了跟上時代最近也開始解塔羅牌了。「年輕人喜歡塔羅。卡片很漂亮，解牌既便宜又快，」她說。

The otherworldly in South Korea will soon be a 4trn won ($3.7bn) business, predicts the Korea Economic Daily, a local newspaper. Paik Woon-san, head of the Association of Korean Prophets, estimates that there are over 300,000 fortune-tellers in the country, and 150,000 shamans, many of whom provide clairvoyance. Unusually in a country of evangelical Christians and devout Buddhists, it continues to thrive as anything from a bit of curious fun to a dependable guide for making everyday decisions.

當地的《韓國經濟日報》指出，在韓國，算命將很快成為一個價值4萬億韓元（約37億美元）的產業。韓國預言協會的會長白雲山估計，全國有超過30萬占卜師和15萬薩滿巫師，其中很多人提供「預見」服務。不同尋常的是，在這個有諸多福音派基督徒和虔誠佛教徒的國家裡，占卜持續興盛，有人只是對它感到好奇和有趣，有人則將其視作日常決策的指南。

Duo, an online marriage agency, found that 82% of unmarried women and 57% of bachelors surveyed in 2017 had visited saju masters to ask about their love life. The practice survived government campaigns in the 1970s that urged citizens to junk juju and make their own fate; they were, after all, conjuring their own potent magic by building South Korea』s economic 「miracle on the Han river」. (The North has other reasons to dislike diviners, who are banned yet sought after; reports have trickled out of the authorities punishing those who make political predictions.)

2017年，一家在線婚戀機構Duo的調查顯示，82%的未婚女性和57%的單身漢曾經用生辰八字求過姻緣。政府在1970年代曾發起過一項運動，號召民眾不要求神拜佛，而要自己主導命運，畢竟他們曾靠自己的努力，造就了「漢江奇蹟」實現了經濟騰飛。但占卜之風還是流傳下來了。（朝鮮也不喜歡占卜者，明令禁止占卜行為，有秘密報告稱，政府會懲罰預測政治的占卜師。）

Now fortune-telling apps for smartphones are beguiling city kids, taking the occult into the otherworldliness of cyberspace. Handasoft, a software developer, has launched 13 apps in the past five years. Its most popular, Jeomsin, introduced two years ago, has been downloaded over 3m times. Every morning it sends users their personalised fortune for the day (other mobile prophecy-providers sell their detailed user data on to marketers, but Jeomsin makes money only from ads). Proffer your palm to the camera or snap a selfie, and another app provides instant face- and palm-reading. Shin Hyun-ho of Jeomsin reckons two or three new apps are being launched every day.

如今，手機上的算命app把神秘的占卜帶進網路空間的理想世界，讓城市的孩子們入了迷。一家軟體開發商Handasoft在過去5年內開發了13個app，其中最流行的是2年前面世的Jeomsin，下載量超過300萬。每天早晨，程序會向用戶推送個人化的每日運勢（其他占卜類手機app通過向市場出售用戶信息來盈利，但Jeomsin僅通過廣告來盈利）。拍下你的手掌或來張自拍，另一款app馬上就能解讀面相和手相。Jeomsin 的申賢浩推測，每天都能有2到3個新app上線。

More than two-thirds of those surveyed by Trend Monitor, a local market-research firm, said they see a fortune-teller at least once a year. Many visit between December and February, to see what awaits them in the new solar and lunar years. At Kyobo, South Korea』s biggest bookstore chain, as many shelves are devoted to deciphering destiny as to understanding Korea』s modern history, with primers including 「Your Winning Lotto Number is in Your Dreams」. Diviners appear regularly in television dramas, sometimes as fraudsters but often to foreshadow a plot twist. In 「The Face Reader」, a gifted seer employed by a 16th-century king correctly identifies traitors from their facial traits. It was among the highest-grossing films of 2013.

根據韓國本土市場調研公司Trend Monitor的調查，約三分之二的被調查者每年至少會去占卜一次。很多韓國人在十二月到二月之間會去占卜，去算一下在新的一年（公曆新年和農曆新年）會有什麼好事壞事在等著他們。韓國最大的連鎖書店教保文庫的書架上擺放了許多破譯命運的書籍，和韓國現代史類書籍一樣多，其中也包括像《彩票中獎號碼就在夢裡》這樣的入門指南。占卜師頻頻出現在各種韓劇中，有時候是以大騙子的形象出現，但更多時候為劇情反轉做鋪墊。在電影《觀相》中， 16世紀的朝鮮國王僱用了一位極具天賦的觀相師，通過觀察面部特徵從而糾出了反叛者。這是2013年韓國最賣座的電影之一。

Andrew Eungi Kim, a professor at Korea University, says soothsayers hold an everyday relevance in South Korea that they do not have in the West. He likens dropping in on one to occasional Sunday churchgoing in the West. The practice is passed on within families—as 「one possible way by which to make sense of the world」.

高麗大學教授金恩基說，占卜師在韓國人日常生活中的重要性非西方國家可比，他將韓國人順道就去占卜和西方人周日固定去教堂視為相同的行為。這種行為在家族內部傳承，是「人們理解世界的一種方式」。

Judgment and The Lovers

占卜與愛

Big junctures in life are a common time for a celestial steer. Careers fairs at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, in Seoul, reserve places for tarot readers. Students go to saju masters with lists of potential employers to determine those most likely to hire them. Businessmen might go to one to select a propitious date to launch a new venture. New parents routinely visit name-makers, another branch of fortune-telling, to help decide on the luckiest name for their baby. Couples check their compatibility before marriage, and one or both may be advised to change their first names to improve their matrimonial lot. In the past decade 1.5m Koreans have legally taken a new one.

人生中的關鍵時刻同天體的運轉是同步的。韓國外國語大學首爾校區辦的招聘會上為塔羅師預留了位置。學生列出有意向的僱主名單到算命大師那裡判斷哪些公司最有可能僱傭他們。企業家會到算命師那裡為項目開張挑選吉時。取名是算命的另一項分支，許多初為父母的人例行去取名大師那裡為孩子起一個最吉祥的名字。情侶在結婚前會去算雙方是否相合，算命師可能會建議其中一人或雙方改名來改善婚運。在過去的10年中，150萬韓國人正式地改名。

Juncture/-t/ a particular point in time 時刻；關頭propitious /pr"p.s/ adjective likely to result in or showing signs of success 吉祥的，吉利的

Lot[lt] the quality of someone"s life and the experiences that they have 生活狀況，命運

The clairvoyance business has also been able to thrive because fate is not fixed in Korean cosmology. Bad news can be mitigated with charms, often given in the form of an action: take up a religion, take out health insurance, stop eating red meat, do not even think about getting a tattoo. Repeat clients are thus ensured. Some even drop in for a weekly check-up.

算命生意長盛不衰的原因在於韓國人相信命運並非一成不變。壞事可以通過符咒得到緩解，通常符咒以行動的方式進行：皈依宗教、購買醫療保險、停止吃葷，紋身想都別想了。頻繁光顧的顧客因此就得到了庇佑。有的人甚至每周都去占卜一次。

mitigate/"mt..get/ verb to make something less harmful, unpleasant or bad 使緩和；減輕（危害等）

repeat /r"pit/ ADJ If a company gets repeat business or repeat customers, people who have bought their goods or services before buy them again. 回頭客的;再次光顧的

As palm lines and facial features evolve with age, so too, it is thought, does fortune. Rather than put a brave face on a luckless situation, a small number of Koreans simply change theirs. Some plastic surgeons have been educating themselves in physiognomy to advise their clients. (In 「The Face Reader」, rivals to the throne modify the face of a contender to get the king to banish him.) Purists in the face-reading business lament that their jobs are getting tougher in plastic-happy Korea.

掌紋和面部特徵會隨著年齡的變化而發生改變，於是人們認為福祉也會隨之改變。面對困境時，一小部分韓國人並不是選擇勇敢面對，而是直接換臉。一些整容醫師自學面相知識從而給客戶提供建議。在電影《觀相》中，為了爭奪王位，一位叛臣將對手整了容而讓他被國王廢黜。面對熱衷整容的韓國人，純粹的面相師不禁感嘆這一職業處境越來越艱難。

plastic surgeonA plastic surgeon is a doctor who performs operations to repair or replace skin which has been damaged, or to improve people"s appearance. 整形外科醫生

physiognomy /"fz"ɑnmi/ noun the physical appearance of the face 相貌，容貌

In the posh district of Apgujeong (part of stylish Gangnam) the entrance hall of a prominent saju café is plastered with autographs from glitterati. Sotdae Saju Cafe offers clairvoyance with cocktails. Its saju master says counselling is the biggest part of his job. 「A lot of rich types around here are dissatisfied. Not long ago South Koreans were trying to survive. Now they』re trying to be happy,」 he says. Tae-young, a 30-something Seoulite, says she goes for a reading whenever things get too much, or if something worrisome is on her mind. Some say readings help them to accept whatever unhappy situation they are in.

在江南區狎鷗亭(Apgujeong) 高檔社區，一家著名占星咖啡館的入口處貼滿了名流人士的簽名。Sotdae占星咖啡館不僅占卜，還供應雞尾酒。這家占卜師的主要工作是做諮詢，他說：「附近的許多富人對生活並不滿意。不久前，韓國人只想活著，現在的韓國人想要快樂。」 30歲左右的首爾人太英說，每當遇到麻煩或感到焦慮，她就會去算一卦。有人說占卜能夠讓他們接受不如意。

glitterati/ glt."rɑ:.ti/ plural noun rich, famous and fashionable people whose activities are of interest to the public and are written about in some newspapers and magazines （為公眾或一些報刊津津樂道的）富人，名流，時髦人士

Few of those who see fortune-tellers take the readings as fact. Many say they offer an additional perspective. In a country where mental troubles are taboo, this is useful. Lim Chaewoo of the University of Brain Education in the city of Cheonan, south of Seoul, says that as modern societies have grown more complex, making decisions has become exacting. During the financial crisis in 2008, American stock traders and insurance brokers, themselves givers of advice, turned to psychics for a steer. Theirs seemed as good as any, in the circumstances.

去占卜的人幾乎沒人會把占卜師的話當真。很多人認為占卜師提供了看問題的新視角。在一個視心理問題為禁忌的國家裡，占卜很有用。首爾南部天安國際腦教育綜合大學院大學(university of brain education) 的Lim Chaewoo說隨著現代社會越來越錯綜複雜，人們做決定也越來越艱難。2008年金融危機時，美國的股票交易員和保險經紀人，原本是提供意見的人，結果也需要求助於靈媒。不過在當時的環境下，靈媒的建議似乎沒什麼不妥。

That saju and face-reading are recognised as academic pursuits in Korea also lends them some modern-day credibility. Janet Shin, a saju master and newspaper columnist who also lectures at universities, says that her clients include doctors, professors and religious types. Status within the profession is achieved through study and experience, as in other disciplines, rather than bluster. Kwon Hee-gwan, who offers readings from soothsaying tents near Tapgol Park in Seoul, is a firm believer in this. On a recent weekday evening, wearing a navy-blue cardigan and tie, he delicately examined clients』 palms with a bone-handled magnifying glass. Mr Kwon sees as many as 20 faces a day, and has worked on a total of 10,000 in his career. But that is only half the number necessary, he says, to know a client』s troubles as soon as she enters his tent.

在韓國，生辰八字和看相被視為一種學術研究，這多少增加了這種職業的可信度。珍妮特·申是一位報紙專欄作家，同時還在大學講學，她也是一名占卜師，她說醫生、教授和有宗教信仰的人都是她的占卜對象。與其他學科一樣，占卜師的行業地位不是靠胡說八道取得的，同樣需要不斷地學習和積累豐富的經驗。權熙堅信這一點，他在首爾塔谷公園附近支了一間帳篷專門給人占卜看相。最近工作日的晚上，他穿著深藍色羊毛衫、系著領帶，拿著帶柄的放大鏡仔細地觀察客戶的手掌。權熙每天能接待20人，目前已經服務了10000個客戶了。但他說，至少需要再看10000人才能達到一眼識人的境界，在客戶踏進帳篷的那一刻，便能看出他的困惑。

Some contend that this is not as mysterious as it sounds. Face-readers consider cues like posture, body language and tone of voice in assessing a customer, much as people naturally assess physical appearance to guess someone』s emotional state. In pre-industrial Korea, when few people left their place of birth, many thought people』s faces were a record of their lifestyles and so in some ways a guide to their fate. Researchers even suggest that palm lines may be a 「fossilised record」 of a person』s earliest moments, because they develop early in the womb. Maybe, then, they hint at a baby』s future health.

有些人認為占卜並沒有傳說中那麼神乎其神。看相的人通過蛛絲馬跡來分析客戶，比如觀察他們的姿勢、肢體語言和語音語調，大多通過外在表徵來推測客戶的精神狀態。前工業化時期，韓國人鮮有離開家鄉的，因此有人認為那時的長相能反映出他們的生活方式，從某種程度上能預測他們的命運。研究者們甚至推測掌紋「亘古不變地記錄」著個人的年幼初期，畢竟掌紋從懷孕之初便開始出現了。也許，掌紋暗示了嬰兒未來的健康。

If computers could process and dissect what contributes to human intuition, might they become the fortune-tellers of the future? In 2016 a computer programme beat Lee Sedol, a South Korean who is among the world』s best (human) Go players, by four games to one. Even the clairvoyants had not seen that coming. Already, robots are being taught how to anticipate human actions—in effect, reading the future. Researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology have trained a system to foresee when two actors will kiss, shake hands, hug or high-five by feeding it millions of hours of television dramas. Chinese researchers have trained a computer to distinguish between criminals and non-criminals nine times out of ten.

如果電腦能夠分析和剖析人類的直覺，或許就能成為未來的算命大師？2016年，（人類）世界級的圍棋棋手李世石在對弈中以1：4慘敗給一個電腦程序。即便是預言家們也沒有預料到這個結局。機器人，早已學會預測人類行為，實際上就是預測未來了。麻省理工學院的學者通過給機器人播放數以百萬計小時的電視劇讓機器人學會預測演員何時接吻、何時握手、擁抱或擊掌。中國學者也成功讓機器人在一群人中分辨出誰是罪犯，命中率90%。

For many, all this portends a rather fearsome future. But a pair of South Korean artists at LOVOT LAB, a startup, offer a different vision. The pair tinker and exhibit above an old rubber-and-metals workshop in Mullae-dong, a run-down industrial neighbourhood of Seoul. In a corner of their studio, a small white robot sits cross-legged, surrounded by coils of sweet-smelling incense. 「Buddha I」 (pictured) has been programmed to read faces to detect a few basic emotions including happiness, anger and sadness, and dispenses lighthearted prophecies accordingly.

在很多人看來，這樣的未來還挺讓人害怕的。但創業公司LOVOT LAB的韓國藝術家夫婦卻不這麼認為。這對夫婦在首爾沒落的工業街區文來洞找了一間破舊的橡膠金屬車間，經過簡單裝修後用來展示他們的作品。在工作室的角落，一個白色小機器人正盤腿坐在焚香中間。通過程序設置，機器人「Buddha I」（如上圖所示）可以識別一些基礎的面部表情，比如開心、生氣和難過，還可以做出相對簡單的預測。

Hong Hyuns of LOVOT LAB has never been to a fortune-teller. But part of his inspiration came from cracking open a fortune cookie. The prophecy told him to 「go east」. As he had already decided to move from Chicago to New York, this put him 「in a good mood」, he says. Many perfectly rational folk have been found to adjust their behaviour, even in tiny ways, after taking advice from cookies. Mr Hong was struck by how many go to have their fortunes read even as they laugh it all off.

LOVOT LAB的洪賢秀從沒見過算命先生。但他的部分靈感卻源於一個幸運餅乾里的預言。幸運餅乾里的預言寫著「去東方」。那時他已經決定從芝加哥搬到紐約，他說預言讓他「心情很好」。許多極其理性的人在看到餅乾的建議後，都或多或少調整了他們的行為。洪先生感到詫異的是，雖然大多數人對幸運餅乾的預言一笑了之，但求解簽者仍絡繹不絕。

fortune cookie a crisp and sugary cookie with a piece of paper inside, a 「fortune」 on which is an aphorism, or a vague prophecy.幸運餅乾，又稱簽語餅、占卜餅等，裡面包有類似箴言或者預言的字條。

The robo-Buddha stirs from its slumber. 「You look happy today,」 it purrs. 「Good things will come to you.」

機器佛從沉睡中醒來。「你今天看上去很高興。」 它用平穩低沉的聲音說，「你會交好運的。」

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