鐵礦石價格看漲？全球鐵礦石廠商們將不再新增產能
?澳大利亞鐵礦石出口商Fortescue Metals集團CEO：中國市場已經供應充足；
?預計短期內鐵礦石價格會上漲，但長期來看，隨著未來幾年鋼鐵產量放緩，中國龐大的鐵礦石進口量將趨於平穩。
據澳大利亞鐵礦石出口商Fortescue Metals集團介紹，全球鐵礦石生產商已經決定不再新增產能來滿足中國鋼廠的需求了。因為中國這個全球最大的鐵礦石客戶已經供應飽和。
Fortescue集團CEO Elizabeth Gaines在接受彭博電視採訪時表示，「事實情況是，大部分鐵礦石生產商，包括我們自己在內，實際上並不指望還能繼續增加對華供應。市場已經供應充足，碼頭上不斷增加的鐵礦石庫存就說明了一切。沒有人還在指望能繼續往中國增加供應」。
全球最大鐵礦石出口國澳大利亞周一發布行業展望，提升短期內價格預期，同時又表示隨著未來幾年鋼鐵產量放緩，中國龐大的鐵礦石進口量將趨於平穩。
Gaines周一表示，「目前需求仍然十分強勁。我們認為鋼鐵產量將大致與目前水平一致，趨勢平緩」。
Gaines正在參加在海南舉行的亞洲博鰲論壇。她表示，任何長期的貿易戰都不利於世界經濟的長期發展，並預計在中美兩國貿易口水戰的大背景下，會有一些保護性關稅出台。
Gaines表示，「目前仍然有很多對話在進行中，有一個共識就是我們不想看到任何期限的長期貿易戰」。
Fortescue集團表示，過去兩年中，全球鐵礦石市場的質量要求越來越高。中國的鋼廠更青睞鐵礦石含量更高的原料，因為那樣的話生產更高效，污染也更少。不同含量鐵礦石之間的價格差正在縮小，這種趨勢還會繼續下去。
Gaines表示，「我們認為高品質鐵礦石和低品質鐵礦石價格差背後的驅動因素之一是中國鋼鐵廠的高利潤。隨著盈利能力承壓，這些鋼鐵廠將選擇低品質的鐵礦石」。
據Mysteel.com數據顯示，上周三，在中國北方，鐵礦石含量為62%的原料的交易價是63.35美元/干噸。鐵礦石含量為58%和65%的原料的交易價分別是51.25美元/干噸和高於81.25美元/干噸。Fortescue集團產出的鐵礦石原料的平均鐵礦石含量大約在58%，該公司還在不斷努力提升鐵礦石的含量。
Iron ore miners have shut gates on adding new supply
Global iron ore miners have turned off the tap on adding new production capacity to feed China』s steel mills as the world』s largest customer is already awash with supplies, according to Fortescue Metals Group Ltd.
「The reality is that most of the producers, ourselves included, are not actually looking to grow supply of iron ore into China,」 Fortescue Chief Executive Officer Elizabeth Gaines said in a Bloomberg TV interview. 「The market is very well supplied and the build-up of inventory at the ports is an indication of that. Nobody is looking at adding new supply into the market.」
Australia, the world』s largest iron ore exporter, delivered a mixed message Monday on the outlook, raising near-term price forecasts, but combined that revision with a more somber message that China』s gargantuan imports are set to level off as steel production eases in the coming years.
「We are seeing that demand is still very strong,」 Gaines said Monday. 「Our view is that steel production will remain at roughly the same levels. It will stay relatively flat.」
Gaines was speaking on the sidelines of this week』s Boao Forum for Asia in Hainan, the local equivalent of Davos. Any periods of prolonged trade wars aren』t conducive to long-term world economic growth, she said, anticipating some level of protectionist tariffs may be introduced in the context of the ongoing spat between the U.S. and China.
「There』s still a lot of ongoing dialogue,」 she said. 「There is an understanding that we don』t want to see a period of prolonged trade wars.」
The global iron market has seen a flight to quality over the past two years, with mills in China favoring cargoes of higher-iron content material that』s more efficient and less polluting. The price spread has been narrowing and this trend will continue, according to Fortescue.
「We』ve seen one of the drivers for the spread between the higher-grade and the lower-grade ores has been the high profitability of the Chinese steel mills,」 Gaines said. 「As that profitability comes under pressure」 they will chase the lower-grade ore, she said.
Spot 62 percent content material in north China last traded Wednesday at $63.35 a dry metric ton, according to Mysteel.com. That compares with $51.25 for 58 percent ore, and over $81.25 for the 65 percent grade. Fortescue produces material with an average of about 58 percent content, although it』s seeking to raise that figure.
Source: Bloomberg | Translated by Jennifer Lu
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