即將升空——中國的航空強權
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即將在2019年稍晚運行的北京大興國際機場可以回應任何對中國的航空公司雄心有質疑的人。大興機場是目前世界上最大的機場，擁有八條跑道，每年可以提供1億旅客的客流。這是為適應中國高速增長的航空旅行需求而增加的新設施。未來成為大興機場主要運力的三大中國航空運營商此時正在高速擴張，而他們的競爭對手還在抱怨商業航空的那點政府補貼。
ANYONE who doubts the ambitions of China`s airlinesneed only look over the plans for Daxing International Airport, which willserve Beijing after it opens in late 2019. It will be the world`s biggestairport by far, with eight runways and room for 100m passengers a year. The newfacilities are needed to serve a fast-growing appetite for air travel. Thethree Chinese carriers that will dominate the passenger traffic passing throughDaxing`s cavernous halls are all in rapid ascent. And that has rivalseverywhere complaining about the sorts of subsidies that have fuelled airlinessince the dawn of commercial aviation.
自Emirates（阿聯酋航空公司），Etihad（阿提哈德航空公司）以及Qatar Airways（卡達航空公司）通過海灣樞紐和低價高質的服務取代歐洲和亞洲，吸引到大量旅客以來，中國旅客增速創造了新記錄。在2010至2017年間，三大中國航空公司旅客數增長了70%，達到3.39億人次。財務數據同樣實現了高速增長，亞洲最大的航空公司，南方航空公司（China Southern），以及東方航空（China Eastern）都在三月末報告年度利潤實現新高。中國國際航空公司（Air China）宣布取得2011年以來最高利潤之後，股價才有所下跌。
China`s airlines are adding passengers at a ratenot seen since Emirates, Etihad and Qatar Airways started to attract customersto their Gulf hubs, handily placed between Europe and Asia, with a winningcombination of cheap fares and superior service. Between 2010 and 2017passenger numbers on China`s three biggest carriers grew by 70%, to 339m (seechart on next page).That growth has translated into some financial high-flying.At the end of March China Southern, Asia`s biggest airline, and China Easternboth reported record annual profits. Air China`s share price fell after itannounced that it had only made its best profits since 2011.
當中國航空公司擴張時，他們的海灣對手，過去十年年均旅客增長率超過10%的對手，則逐漸式微。增長放緩——或者像卡達一樣，同比收縮，使盈利變得困難。來自顧問公司CAPA的Will Horton說，中國公司確實在侵蝕海灣公司的份額。與海灣公司依賴在他們樞紐轉機的長途旅客不同，中國公司的本地需求是更為堅實的基礎。與2007年1.84億人次相比，去年5.49億人次搭飛機旅行。國際航空運輸協會（IATA）預測，到2022年，中國將取代美國擁有世界最大的航空市場，到2036年，將會達到15億人次的客流。
As China`s carriers expand, their Gulf rivals,which for a decade have seen passenger growth of over 10% a year, arelanguishing. Slower expansion—or in Qatar`s case, shrinkage—has hit profits hard. It is natural to expect China`scarriers to eclipse those from the Gulf, says Will Horton of CAPA, aconsultancy. Those Gulf airlines rely on long-haul passengers connecting intheir hubs. China`s carriers are built on more solid foundations offast-growing local demand. A total of 549m passengers took to the air lastyear, compared with184m in 2007. The International Air Transport Association(IATA), a trade group, predicts that China will overtake America as the world`sbiggest aviation market by 2022, and will go on to hit a total of1.5bnpassengers by 2036.
增長主要來自國際航線。過去十年，中國大陸新增了超過100條長途線路，主要服務於增長的中國出境需求。十年來，出境遊客數量激增，從每年4100萬達至超過1.3億人次。來自諮詢公司Dave Emerson of Bain & Compan研究結論認為，中國的航空公司市場份額獲得激增。數據公司OAG則估算，2011年至2017年，中美間航行的中國飛機座位數比率從37%上升至61%。
Much of that growth is on international routes.Over the past decade airlines in mainland China have opened over 100newlong-haul routes. These flights mainly serve an increasing urge among Chinesefor foreign travel. The number of tourists going abroad, mostly by plane, hasrocketed in the past decade, from 41m a year to over 130m. As a result, Chineseairlines are gobbling market share, says Dave Emerson of Bain & Company, aconsultancy. Between 2011 and 2017 the capacity on Chinese planes flyingbetween China and America rose from 37% to 61%, reckons OAG, a flight-datafirm.
不過，對世界其他大型國際航空公司而言，把中國人運往世界各地，還不是最為緊要的問題。海灣的航空公司通過他們的樞紐在贏得美國和歐洲的市場份額。中國的航空公司現在也在國家的助力下，開放大部分地區，作為他們本土市場之外的航線轉接點。
The battle to fly the Chinese around the globe isnot the front that most concerns the world`s other big international airlines, however.The Gulf carriers took business from American and European airlines by gettingthe world to fly through their hubs. Chinese airlines are also now making themost of their location, and the largesse of the state, to offer connections todestinations beyond their home market.
中國國內線路在監管下競爭很有限，像古巴一樣，允許航空公司用國內航線正常利潤補貼那些同盟的國際航線的損失。中國的一些小城市也對自己機場新開發的長距離路線給予宣傳補貼（2016年在130億美元左右）。這使得座位數的供給超出了本地的需求。Horton先生解釋，所以運營商將這些座位賣給喜歡長距離折扣的外國旅客。中國官方鼓勵這樣的嘗試。例如，他們放鬆了轉機的入境審核並給予部分六日免簽入境資格。
Chinese regulators limit competition on domesticroutes, allowing airlines to make healthy profits to cross-subsidiseloss-making international routes chosen to reward allies such as Cuba. China`ssmaller cities also give handouts to airlines(around $1.3bn in 2016) to launchnew long haul routes from their airports. All this has created more seats thanlocals can fill. So the carriers are selling them cheap to foreign travellerslooking for a long-haul bargain, explains Mr Horton. The Chinese authoritiesencourage the practice. They are, for example, loosening immigration checks onconnecting travellers and giving some visa-free access to China for six days.
這樣使得地區競爭更加激烈。中國航空崛起以後，很多亞洲運營商處境艱難。管理不善和政府干預，馬拉西亞航空（Malaysia Airlines）這樣的運營商固然會成本幾乎失控。而那些有競爭力運行良好的公司，例如國泰航空公司（Cathay Pacific）則在簽證規則改變後，不得不與赤字展開鬥爭。國際航空運輸協會（IATA）記錄顯示，自2015年亞洲人均旅客收益猛跌六分之一後，全世界的航空公司創紀錄的好日子才宣告結束。
This is hitting regional rivals hardest. Many Asiancarriers were struggling long before the threat from Chinese airlines arose.Carriers such as Malaysia Airlines had allowed costs to run out of control, thanksto poor management and political meddling. But since the visa rules changed, evencomparatively well-run airlines, such as Cathay Pacific, have had to contendwith a sea of red ink. Airlines globally maybe enjoying an era of recordprofitability but earnings per passenger for those in Asia have slumped by asixth since 2015, according to IATA.
即使在中國的運營產生了虧空，美國和歐洲的航空公司還沒感到那麼危急。但是，在廉價航空和海灣運營商競爭的基礎上，中國航空的到來成為刺激呼籲貿易保護主義的最後一根稻草。美國三大運營商想要互換領空協議來促使海灣公司取消飛往美國的航線。在歐洲，法航荷航集團（Air France-KLM）和德國漢莎航空公司（Lufthansa）已經在遊說868法案，讓歐盟可以執行單邊制裁，對受到政府補貼的外國航空公司進行懲罰。
Airlines in America and Europe have less at stake,even if many are already nursing losses on their Chinese operations. But comingon top of competition from low cost rivals and the Gulf carriers, the arrivalof the Chinese acts as another spur to calls for protectionism. America`s threebiggest carriers want the 「open-skies」 agreements that enablethe Gulf carriers to fly to America revoked. In Europe, AirFrance-KLM andLufthansa have been lobbying for a proposed reform of Regulation 868, whichwould allow the EU to impose sanctions on foreign airlines that get statesubsidies.
顧問公司Aviation Advocacy的Andrew Charlton警告說，這個策略對中國是沒用的。不像那些海灣國家，中國正在形成航空強權。如果遭遇競爭，可以進行有力的回擊。去年六月，因為偽造安檢費用，中國對阿聯酋航空公司（Emirates）處以2.9萬元（4270美元）罰款，並禁航了六個月。相對來說，西方會在貿易戰中比即將成為旅客大出口國的中國，受到更重的打擊。
These tactics will not work on China, warns AndrewCharlton of Aviation Advocacy, a consultancy. Unlike the Gulf states, China isan emerging superpower. It has the power to hit competitors where it hurts.Last June it fined Emirates 29,000yuan ($4,270) and banned it from expanding inChina for six months on trumped-up charges over safety lapses. A trade war overflying rights will hit the West harder than China, which is fast becoming asizeable exporter of tourists.
不過，外國的航空公司得到了一些緩和的空間。中國航空公司的國際旅客增長已經開始放緩，從2016年高速的33%到今年估計只有12%。一些政府官員也在質疑政府補貼是否還有必要。中國官方放鬆了票價的限制，這就使得補貼給域外運營的潛在資金有所減少，從而放緩了國內市場的自由化程度。一些小的航空公司因此遭遇財務困難。海南航空公司（Hainan Airlines），包括母公司海航集團（HNA Group），中國第四大的航空運營商，就遇到類似困難，償債能力有所下降。
Foreign airlines may yet get some respite. Thegrowth in international passengers on Chinese carriers is already slowing, froma breakneck pace of 33% in 2015 to a merely rapid 12% forecast for this year. Manypoliticians are starting to ask whether some of the subsidies are value formoney. And Chinese regulators are belatedly liberalising the domestic market bygiving up their control of fares, potentially leaving carriers with less sparecash to subsidise foreign operations. Some smaller airlines are already hittingfinancial trouble. Hainan Airlines, the country`s fourth-largest carrier, lookswobbly and its owner, HNA Group, is struggling to pay creditors.
外國運營商也有反擊的機會。例如，卡達航空公司（Qantas）和新加坡航空公司（Singapore Airlines）努力推出超長直達的線路來滿足不喜歡轉機的乘客。看來，雖然中國的航空公司崛起似乎不可阻擋，但是他們也並非無懈可擊。
And foreigners have ways to fight back. Qantas andSingapore Airlines, for example, are keen to use ultra-haul-long direct flightsto attract business travellers keen not to have a layover. The take-off ofChinese airlines looks unstoppable. That does not make them invincible.
二十士閱：我昨天在知乎看到一個關於收益管理的話題，轉載在第二篇文章中。文中提到，收益管理首先就被應用於美國航空業，裡面的細節設計非常有趣。現在來看，宏觀和微觀同樣重要——歷史機遇站在中國這邊，但是中國航空公司的管理仍然有技術進步的空間，運用更好的運籌學和數據演算法，可以讓效率和收益得到有效提升。
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