火箭勇士賠率領跑聯盟，贏了香車會所，輸了下海乾活？

運動 04-16

Vegas odds discussion. The rockets and warriors vegas odds are insane!

拉斯維加斯宣布季後賽賠率，火箭和勇士的賠率太可怕了！

Rockets at -4500 against the timberwolves (+1500) and the warriors at -1400 against the spurs (+900). I understand they are heavy favorites and vegas doesn"t want to get burned by people all betting on them but -4500!?

火箭（-4500）vs森林狼（+1500）

勇士（-1400）vs馬刺（+900）

我知道火勇是奪冠熱門，賭場也不想因為大家都來押火勇而賠錢，不過-4500是不是太誇張了！？

For those of you who aren"t familiar with American betting odds -4500 would mean the payout on a $4500 bet on the rockets would only make you $100. So when its negative that is how much you have to bet to win $100 and when its positive thats how much you win for every $100 bet. What do y"all think about the odds?

給那些不太熟悉美國博彩的人科普下：-4500的賠率意思就是你花4500美元押火箭贏，如果押對了你只能贏得100美元。所以當賠率為負，後面的數字就是你贏得100美元所需要的賭金；當賠率為正，後面的數字就是你花100美元所能贏得的獎金。各位怎麼看？

Other series odds

Pelicans (+190) vs trailblazers (-230) Jazz (+120) vs thunder (-140)

Raptors (-700) vs wizards (+500) Celtics (-165) vs bucks (+145) Sixers (-500) vs heat (+375) Cavs (-700) vs pacers (+500)

Odds taken from MGM properties sports book.

其他系列賽的賠率：

鵜鶘（+190）vs開拓者（-230）

爵士（+120）vs雷霆（-140）

猛龍（-700）vs奇才（+500）

凱爾特人（-165）vs雄鹿（+145）

76人（-500）vs熱火（+375）

騎士（-700）vs步行者（+500）

以上數據來自賭城米高梅大酒店的體育手冊

[–]IndistinguishablePig 426 指標 8小時前

Thank you OP for explaining how the odds work, I have bet for years but never knew exactly how it works.

謝謝老哥在開頭解釋了賠率的意思，我賭了好多年，一直都不懂規則。

[–][SAS] Kawhi LeonardJandro93[S] 510 指標 8小時前

A true gambler.

樓上的是真賭徒。

[–][PHI] Allen IversonEuroStep0 156 指標 11小時前

so -4500 would be something like 1.05 in Europe?

所以-4500在歐洲就是1.05的賠率？

[–]Nuggetsmalistev 181 指標 10小時前

Even worse: 1.02

還要更低：1.02

[–]CelticsSpuddMeister 36 指標 10小時前

Can you explain how the odds work in EU?

能給大夥說說歐盟的賠率是怎麼玩的嗎？

[–]Knicksreviloto 169 指標 10小時前

Odds 1.02 basically means if you bet 1$, you receive 1.02$ if the bet succeeds. So the winnings is what ever the odds are minus 1$.

If the odds are 1.54, you can win 0.54$. If the odds are 2.4, you can win 1.4$ etc...

1.02的賠率就是說，如果你投出去1美元，贏下賭注後就能拿回1.02美元。那麼獎金的金額就是拿單位賠率減去1美元。

如果賠率是1.54，你可以贏得0.54美元；如果賠率是2.4，你可以贏得1.4美元。

[–]Rocketswantsumgrapes 436 指標 10小時前

This makes so much more sense than the American version. It"s just a multiplier

這比美國的好理解多了，這就是個乘法唄。

[–]Krillin113 255 指標 10小時前

Like measurung distances in decimals.

十位制距離單位（mm、cm、m）也是比美國優越的地方。

[–]Rocketssneakyfknprawn 74 指標 9小時前

said every non-american ever about the metric system

每一個非美國人都是這麼評價十進位量度體系的：比美國的好理解多了。

[–][GSW] Kelenna Azubuikewildly-mediocre 145 指標 11小時前

The futures bets are also pretty interesting. If you believe in the Rockets, they"re basically even money to make the finals. Given their dominance over the course of the season, they should probably be -200, so there"s real value there. 538 for example gives them a 57% chance to make the finals, where"d they be prohibitive favorites against any Eastern Conference opponent.

勇士球迷：為未來押注也是挺有意思的。如果你押火箭進入總決賽，那麼獎金基本會和賭金差不多。考慮到他們在整個賽季的統治地位，他們的賠率大概是-200，所以押火箭是真有賺頭的。比如，538預測火箭有57％的機會闖進入總決賽，並將大概率擊敗來自東部的總決賽對手。

[譯註1]

[譯註1]FiveThirtyEight(538)：ESPN旗下網站，專註於分析政治、體育、科學、經濟和大眾文化等多個領域。

Conversely, if you think the Warriors with a healthy Steph would cruise to the finals, there"s a lot of value in Warriors futures. They were a negative future all offseason/most of the regular season, yet are basically even money now.

反過來，如果你認為擁有健康庫里的勇士隊將會晉級總決賽，那麼押勇士奪魁也很有賺頭。在休賽期和常規賽的大部分時間裡，他們的未來值都是負數（押的比賺得多），然而勇士現在的賠率情況基本是押多少賺多少了。

[–][SAS] Kawhi LeonardJandro93[S] 171 指標 11小時前

As much as i love 538 their model isnt that great and vegas odds have a much better track record

儘管我非常喜歡538，但他們的分析模型並沒有那麼好，從各自的歷史紀錄上看，拉斯維加斯賭場開出的賠率更靠譜。

[–]crastle 81 指標 10小時前

While you"re right about 538 not being as good predictors of Vegas, they"ve had some pretty surprising percentages in recent years. For example:

They gave Trump roughly a 30% chance to win the presidency on election night, significantly higher than any other major poll (Obligitory Fuck Trump).

雖然從預測的角度角度來講，538不如拉斯維加斯賭場，但近幾年來他們開出的一些預測百分比還是挺令人驚訝的，比如：

他們2016年預測特朗普大概有30％的可能當選美國總統，遠高於其他主流的民意測驗給出的結果（順便自動罵一句：去TMD特朗普）。

They said that this was the most likely year in history that a #1 seed would lose to a #16 seed in March Madness. Given, it was only about 7%, but still impressive that they gave the highest percentage to this year.

他們還說過，今年的瘋狂三月1號種子輸給16號種子的概率是歷史上最高的。雖然只有大約7％，但他們今年能給出這麼高的概率仍讓人印象深刻。[譯註2]

[譯註2]：在今年三月的NCAA錦標賽中，1號種子弗吉尼亞大學以54比74大比分不敵16號種子馬里蘭大學巴爾的摩縣分校，止步64強。這是16號種子球隊在歷史上首次淘汰1號種子球隊。

[–]RaptorsEchospree 117 指標 10小時前

It"s really specific to the model. The 538 NBA model is super simplistic (ELO-based), I wouldn"t trust it at all. Their politic models, however, are rather insightful.

還是跟具體模型有關。538的NBA分析模型十分簡單（基於天梯評級），我一點都不信。但他們用來分析政治的模型很有洞察力。

[譯註3]

[譯註3]ELO演算法（又稱天梯評級）將個人實力或比賽能力依據相應的數據（如參加比賽的級別、凈勝球數以及比賽結果等）進行量化。由物理學教授 Arpad Elo 創立。

[–]RocketsRologames 1983 指標 11小時前*

I may be a rockets fan but I"m about to drop 100 bucks in favor of the Timberwolves

火箭球迷：雖然我是火蜜，但我打算投100塊押森林狼贏。

Edit: I won"t drop 100 but I might drop 10 bucks. It"s a quick 150 bucks if I win and worse case scenario I lose 10 dollars that I probably would"ve spent on junk food or trash anyway.

編輯1：我不會投100塊的，但我估計會投10塊。一旦押贏了我立馬就有150塊了，最慘的情況也不過輸10塊錢而已，這10塊就算我不押森林狼也可能吃垃圾食品或者買其他的破爛玩意花掉了。

Edit 2: Since a lot of people are asking, there are a lot of sites you can use but Bovada is a well known legit place to bet on sports.

編輯2：很多人在問我在哪投注，有很多投注網站啊，Bovada應該是挺規範的給體育賽事下注的網站，知道的人也多。

[–]NicCage360NoScope 54 指標 9小時前

I always bet against my team. It"s a good way to be happy no matter what. I just bet whatever I would pay to see my team win, so when they win, it"s like you bought that win. When they lose, you have a nice consolation prize. Only time I don"t do this, is if the odds are way out of whack. Good luck if you end up betting. Or maybe I should wish you bad luck if you"re betting against the Rockets.

我永遠都在押我主隊輸。這是個不錯的玩法，因為不管結果如何，你都將會獲得快樂。其實我無論押多少都是為了我的主隊能贏，所以當他們贏球時，就像是你花錢買來的這個勝利。即便他們輸了，你也有一個不錯的安慰獎勵。只有在賠率相差得很離譜的時候我才會收手。如果你最終下了注，祝你好運。不過既然你一個火箭球迷押的是火箭輸球，那好像我應該祝你霉運？

[–]Bullswjbc 606 指標 10小時前

Luc is out, Jimmy is back, and the Rockets" huge bench advantage doesn"t matter so much in the playoffs. It"s worth $100.

公牛球迷：巴莫特缺陣，巴特勒歸隊，火箭巨大的替補優勢在季後賽也沒那麼突出了，這100刀值啊。

[–]CavaliersExttra 2509 指標 10小時前

Aaaand that"s why they always make money.

看到沒，（樓上的邏輯）就是為什麼博彩公司永遠都在賺錢。

[–]Bullswjbc 223 指標 10小時前*

They make money by making sure there are an equal number of bettors payout on both sides of the bet. That doesn"t make the bettors wise.

Edit: Equal payout, not an equal number of bettors.

公牛球迷：菠菜公司的掙錢方式是保證兩邊投注的回報額是一樣的。但這並不代表下注人是帶著腦子下注的。

編輯：注意，是回報額一致，而不是兩邊的投注人數相同。

[–][NYK] Kristaps Porzingissmoove 358 指標 10小時前*

Common misconception. They will make their 10% vig guaranteed if there is equal money on both sides.

But sometimes Vegas will bait bettors with lines that seem too good to be true. They are essentially betting against the public on those lines. They usually rake off those lines.

Edit: I might be wrong, I was told this by a professional gambler friend but I can"t find any evidence online.

常見的錯誤想法。如果賭注兩邊的賭資相同，賭場只是百分之百會贏得10％的擁金。

但有時候賭場會用高到不真實的賠率誘惑投注者。本質上就是在大眾身上賭博。而賭場基本上也會在這點上爆賺。

編輯：我也不一定對，這都是一個職業賭手朋友告訴我的，但我在網上找不到任何證據。

[–]RaptorsIWantRaceCar 269 指標 10小時前

Used to be professional gambler here. Vegas absolutely takes sides. Outcome of a super bowl could have Vegas either winning 5m or winning 250m. But they typically always win.

我以前是職業賭手。拉斯維加斯絕對會選邊站的。超級碗的比賽結果可能會讓拉斯維加斯賺到500萬，或是2.5億。但他們基本上一直在贏錢。

[–]Bullsnorepedo 52 指標 10小時前

Drose/tyus/ Teague about to run a train on cp3

公牛球迷：保羅估計要面對羅斯/泰厄斯-瓊斯/蒂格的車輪戰了。

[–]TimberwolvesCBS_SURVIVOR 141 指標 10小時前

I"ve been waiting for D-Rose to show our team how to run train

森林狼球迷：我一直在等待著羅斯給我們秀一下什麼叫車輪戰。

[譯註4]

[譯註4]TMZ：羅斯被控迷奸、輪奸前女友最後宣告無罪。

[–]Celticsbustedracquet 38 指標 10小時前

Why would they do that? CP3 is excellent on defense, he"ll shut all of them down. CP3 is just better than all of them.

他們何必呢，保羅是個頂尖的防守者，他會把他們都鎖死的。他們仨加起來都玩不過保羅。

[–]BullsBarajas0910 106 指標 10小時前

Not if they all merge their parts together to form a ball handling Exodia!

公牛球迷：除非他們合體組成控衛版的艾克佐迪亞！

[譯註5]

[譯註5]艾克佐迪亞：《遊戲王》卡組系列之一，由5隻怪獸組成，一般情況下並沒有特殊能力，但當5隻怪獸同時齊集在手卡時會自動獲得勝利，在《遊戲王》中一直是特殊勝利方式的代表。

[–]RocketsOptionRunners 45 指標 8小時前

We"re a lot deeper than just Luc though. In fact, I don"t think people really understand how deep the Rockets are this year.

火箭球迷：雖然巴莫特不在，但我們的陣容還是很有深度的。事實上，我認為很多人還沒有認識到火箭今年的陣容深度有多強。

CP3 missed 24 games

Harden missed 10 games

Capela missed 8 games

Ariza missed 15 games

Eric Gordon missed 13 games

Ryan Anderson missed 16 games

Luc missed 21 games

保羅缺席了24場

哈登缺席了10場

卡佩拉缺席了8場

阿里扎缺席了15場

戈登缺席了13場

安德森缺席了16場

巴莫特缺席了21場

With all those injuries we still won 65 games. I"m not trying to sound like a homer, I"m just saying I think most people are underestimating the depth this team has.

就是在這麼多傷病的情況下我們依然贏下了65場常規賽，我不是因為自己是火箭球迷而吹火箭，我只是想說大多人低估了這支球隊的深度。

[–]Celticsbustedracquet 163 指標 10小時前

Before everybody puts tons of money on the Timberwolves, might want to read this tweet from Zach Lowe:

在你們準備給狼隊花大錢下注之前，先看看Zach Lowe的這條推特：

Zach Lowe：看著哈登和保羅在對陣森林狼的各種擋拆，我感覺我的電腦要被轟炸起火了。對陣森林狼的四場比賽中，火箭每100次進攻回合可以砍下130分（並沒有打錯字）。