從富得法國人都羨慕到混成發展中國家：阿根廷到底哪裡走錯了？

1929. Argentina never properly recovered from the Great Depression in Latin America.

By all accounts, Argentina, with its rich primary resources, was a destination of choice for many European immigrants in the 19th century. It was definitely ahead of the backwaters of Australia. By 1929, Argentina was a wealthy country by world standards.

Following the Wall Street Crash of 1929, the entire world fell into economic depression. Argentina fell prey to the lure of military coup in 1930 and the subsequent Infamous Decade (1930-1943). Core to the political turmoil was a deep loss of trust of civil society, and thus military men see it as their duty in imposing order and create prosperity from their iron will and iron fists.

自1929年起，阿根廷就從未從拉丁美洲的大蕭條中恢復過來。

總而言之，擁有豐富重要資源的阿根廷是十九世紀許多歐洲移民的首選目的地。這絕對是在之前死水一般的澳大利亞的優良選擇。到1929年，阿根廷是世界標準的富裕國家。

在1929年華爾街崩潰之後，整個世界陷入經濟蕭條。阿根廷在1930年受到軍事政變的誘惑，於是在後來的臭名昭著的十年（1930-1943）中深受其害。政治動蕩的核心是公民社會的信任深深喪失，因此軍人認為他們的責任和義務，用鐵的意志和鐵腕創造繁榮。

Out of the mess, Peronism arose as somewhat of an allergic reaction to foreign influences, real and imagined. Peronism"s determinism in remaining a part of the Non-Aligned Movement (third world) meant that literally, the country remained in the third world. Argentina became a battle-ground of force and ideas between the US and USSR, without having enjoyed the benefits of being aligned to either side.

Post the fall of the USSR, it hoped to quickly catch up economically, and took out large amount of loans during a time of rapid growth. It precipitated to the 1998–2002 Argentine great depression, for which Argentina is still feeling its consequences decades later.

在混亂中，庇隆主義對於外來的影響是有些過敏的反應，這是真實且可以想像的。庇隆主義作為不結盟運動（第三世界）的一部分，意味著此國仍處於第三世界。阿根廷也成為美國和蘇聯之間力量和思想的戰場，卻沒有享受到任何一方的利益。

胡安·庇隆倡導了庇隆主義

在蘇聯垮台後，又希望在經濟高速增長的時候迅速趕上，進行了大量貸款。又引發了1998 - 2002年的阿根廷大蕭條，恐怕阿根廷幾十年後仍然遭受其後果。-------------

Because when our GDP was on par with the US and in France people used the phrase 「as rich as Argentine」, our political and rich elites decided to not hop on the industrialist train.

Many people will say Perón and populism. Other will say liberalism and extreme right-wings from the US. Both are right and wrong, both did bad to the country in several aspects. Yet, what I said is the reason.

當時，我們的國內生產總值與美國相當，法國人們用「像阿根廷一樣富有」這個詞，我們的政治和富裕階層卻決定不跳上實業家列車。

2001年的阿根廷經濟大蕭條

許多人會說是庇隆和民粹主義。其他的則會說美國的自由主義和極端的右翼。兩者都有對有錯，都在幾個方面對國家造成不利影響。然而，我這裡要說的是原因。

While the United States acquired debt and fomented private enterprises to develop it vast lands, to exploit their resources, to compete, etc, etc, etc, in Argentina, high society decided to just sit and live from agricultural rent. So instead of the state contracting companies to make railroads connecting and populating the country, or issuing bonds to private companies in the country to exploit iron, transform it on steel, manufacture locomotives and lay railways, the government just handed the task over to British and French companies. They could get 15 km of lands to both sides of the railroad in exchange for building it so the ruling class washed its hands from the task.

Why would they naturally not import everything from Europe? Why would they invest in producing steel in Argentina? They laid the tracks in a concentrated network towards Buenos Aires to move the agricultural production to the port. So there was not even population vast stretches of land across the country trading goods, but concentrated populations on farmlands with a network of trains going to Buenos Aires to export.

美國在阿根廷大量租借，煽動民營企業發展大片土地，開發資源，競爭等等，上層社會發現可以從農業租金中坐享其成。因此，政府不是讓國家承包公司來連接和組織國家鐵路，也不是向國內的私營公司發債以開拓鐵路，改造鋼鐵，製造機車和鋪設鐵路，而是把工作交給了英國人，法國公司。他們可以在鐵路兩邊得到15公里的土地作為交換，以便統治階級從任務中交換利益。

這就是為什麼他們會從歐洲進口任何東西。他們為什麼不會投資在阿根廷生產鋼鐵。他們通過集中的網路走向布宜諾斯艾利斯，將農業生產轉移到港口。因此，全國各地都沒有眾多的大片土地進行貿易，而是集中在農田上，旁邊有一列列火車通往布宜諾斯艾利斯港口。

That was what went wrong with Argentina. The country sat on easy money and the rich didn』t expand, they didn』t take the risk on new investments and business, the state didn』t foment new economic activities. We did the opposite the US did. So we reached the 20』s being a gigantic country, full of unexploited resources, with a very low population, living from agriculture and importing all manufactured goods, while the US got Rockefeller, Ford, Carnegie, Edison, etc, etc, etc, taking the US resources and transforming them in money and goods to be exported. We got the Alzaga, the Anchorenas and the Rural Society just growing wheat, corn and cows and governing the country.

那是阿根廷出了什麼問題呢？國家坐地起錢，富人沒有擴張，沒有冒險進行新的投資和創業，國家也沒有煽動新的經濟活動。我們做了與美國相反的做法。所以我們到了20年代是一個充滿未開發資源的大國，人口非常少，以農業為生，需要進口所有製成品，而美國得到洛克菲勒，福特，卡耐基，愛迪生等等，美國的資源和改造他們的貨幣和商品出口。我們得到了Alzaga，Anchorenas和正在種植小麥，玉米，牛的農村社會的這樣國家。

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Argentina was a thriving country, and many other thriving countries have gone through the same upheavals that have been noted above and remained thriving.

However, I believe Argentina"s deep ties to its military history eventually resulted in where it is now, getting by from paycheck to paycheck. Like many other countries, Argentina"s existence depended on it"s military. Unlike other countries that went through the same thing, they never quite managed to keep the military under civilian control. Instead, the political system largely existed to keep the military in power.

阿根廷是一個蓬勃發展的國家，許多其他蓬勃發展的國家也經歷過上述的同樣的動蕩，也可以保持著蓬勃的發展。

不過，我相信阿根廷與其軍事歷史的深厚聯繫最終導致了現在的情況，總在透支將來的執政信譽（月光族政府）。像許多其他國家一樣，阿根廷的存在源自於軍事。與其他國家不同的是，它們從來沒有把軍隊置於平民的控制之下。相反，政治制度在很大程度上是允許軍隊的執政。

阿根廷軍政府暴力鎮壓左翼親庇隆主義陣營後引起的大規模抗議

That would be fine in a country with many external enemies. Argentina didn"t really have any. Still, military spending kept escalating and eventually overwhelmed the ability of the economy to pay for it. It largely came to a head after the Falklands War of 1983. That was supposed to be a quick strike to settle a longstanding dispute. Argentina believed, not unwisely, that Britain would not intervene and, if it did, they would be at such a disadvantage that they would win a war with Britain anyway.

That is, of course, not what happened. Despite the Argentinian army and navy having their bases within a few hundred miles of the battle zone and the British having to haul everything thousands of miles, and depsite the Argentinian air force having the advantage of land bases while the British were flying off carriers, the British handed Argentina their lungs on a plate.

在一個有許多外部敵人的國家，這樣會變好。阿根廷真的沒有。儘管如此，軍費不斷升級，並最終壓倒了經濟支付能力。在1983年的福克蘭戰爭之後，這個問題基本上被人們所認同。這本該是解決長期爭端的一個快速的打擊。很不明智的，阿根廷相信英國不會介入，如果一開始就認為英國會介入的話，英國會處於不利的地位，阿根廷無論如何都會贏得與英國的戰爭。

當然，事情沒有如此進展。儘管阿根廷陸軍和海軍的基地位於戰區幾百英里的範圍內，英國人不得不長途跋涉數千英里，阿根廷空軍具有土地基礎的優勢，但英國人從航母上飛下來的，英國人就輕鬆把阿根廷的肉放在了盤子上。

英阿馬島戰爭

This absolute disaster had long lasting effects on Argentina. The military started to lose it"s hold on power, and the money they spent on the war had so drained the nation"s treasury that recovery was impossible. Eventually, those rich farmers stopped taking australs for their food and Argentinians in the cities had to sell everything portable they had just to eat. Most of the material wealth of Argentina can still be found in the pawn shops of Buenos Aires.

這場絕對的災難對阿根廷有著長期的影響。軍隊開始失去權力，他們在這場戰爭中所花的錢已經耗盡了國庫，無法恢復。最後，那些富裕的農民不能吃澳洲菜了，城市裡的阿根廷人不得不出售他們剛吃的東西。阿根廷的大部分物質財富仍然可以在布宜諾斯艾利斯的當鋪找到。

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This is a very simplistic view, and bear in mind: simply my own personal opinion.

I believe that the problem with Argentina lies not only in its ruling class, but on the working class. I feel that Argentineans are always on the lookout for an easy fix to all their woes. So when a politician comes to court them, promising the moon and the stars, they vote him or her into power, become their biggest and blindest fans because of their fervor to believe in everything they were told... and then their candidate leaves power several millions richer while little has improved, they are left astonished.

這是一個非常簡單的觀點，牢記在心：當然也只是我個人的意見。

我認為，阿根廷的問題不僅在於統治階級，而且還在於普通人階級。我覺得阿根廷人總是在尋找一個容易解決所有困難的方法。所以當一個政治家來迎接他們，承諾月亮和星星，他們投票權，成為他們的最大和最盲目的粉絲，因為他們的熱情相信他們的一切，然後他們的候選人離開權力時有幾百萬或更富有，事實卻只有一點改善，他們只留下了驚訝。

Argentines also need somebody to vilify, a scape-goat to place all the blame on. Be it the US, the UK, capitalism, the IMF -- or president Macri. If that doesn"t work, they create a big distraction to get people riled up (i.e. The Falklands War). But above all, mass hate must be directed towards someone or something.

Also, cannot forget that they --and their heros/favorite politicians and football players-- are always right, never wrong. The fault is always somebody else"s.

The day they realize that they are their own worst enemy, is the day that might set them on the right path back to prosperity.

阿根廷也需要一個人去詆毀，把所有的責任都給這個替罪羊。無論是美國，英國，資本主義，IMF還是總統Macri。如果這樣做不行的話，它會使人精神錯亂，讓人們激怒（即馬島戰爭）。但最重要的是，群眾的仇恨必須針對某人或某事。

另外，不能忘記，他們 - 他們的英雄/最喜歡的政治家和足球運動員 - 總是對的，從不錯。過錯總是別人的錯。

他們意識到自己是自己最大的敵人的那一天，正是可以使他們走上繁榮的正確道路的一天。

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Government.

Inflation is a very, very destructive thing. When you have terrible inflation, you aren"t able to save money because that money is worth less in the future - so you need to spend it now while it holds value. This makes it very difficult to have class mobility.

Voting is mandatory, also. The majority of voters are poor, and the poor don"t want the same things as the middle class, they want what"s good for the poor. So, they vote in politicians who give the poor what they want.

Rinse and repeat, throw in some military coups every twenty years or so, and you have what you see today. Actually, it"s suprising they are as advanced as they are today, considering.

政府。

通貨膨脹是一個非常非常具有破壞性的事情。 當你的通貨膨脹很糟糕時，你將無法存錢，因為這筆錢在未來價值更低 - 所以你現在需要花錢，而它卻擁有價值。 這讓階級流動變得非常困難。

投票也是強制性的。 大多數選民都是窮人，窮人不希望和中產階級一樣，窮人希望有好處。 所以，誰許諾窮人好處，窮人就給哪個政治家票。

不斷的如此循環，每二十年左右出一起軍事政變，這就是你今天看到的。 事實上，驚訝他們今天如此「先進」，令人深思。

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The curse of Argentina, its cancer, is a phenomenon known as Peronism.

Juan Peron was a general who became president, carrying out a highly populist regime, plagued with corruption and clientelism just when Argentina had amassed an incredible fortune selling foodstuffs to the world during World War II.

Peron, and his wife Evita Perón, became the "parents of the poor", giving away money, gifts, houses to the populace and draining the estate"s arcs in a few years. This is when the country started its long decline.

Peron became a dictator, and his followers kept on stealing and destroying our economy. The reaction to this came in the form of military Coups d"état, which were no solution to this, and the emergence of extreme left guerrilla groups that caused bloodshed in the 70"s.

阿根廷的詛咒，它的癌症，是一種被稱為庇隆主義的怪象。

胡安·佩隆（Juan Peron）是一位總統，當阿根廷在二戰期間積累了一筆不可思議的財富，在向世界出售商品時，誕生了一個高度腐敗的民粹主義政權。

庇隆和他的妻子埃維塔·庇隆（EvitaPerón）成為「窮人的父母」，在幾年內向民眾捐贈了錢，禮物和房屋，並吃光了房地產的利益。這是該國開始長期下降的時候。

庇隆成為獨裁者，他的追隨者不斷地偷竊和摧毀我們的經濟。對此社會的反應是以軍事政變的形式出現的，這個政府沒有辦法解決這個問題，並且在七十年代出現了極左的游擊隊。

胡安·庇隆與艾薇塔·庇隆

During the last decades, there was a profound demographic transformation, with the Middle Class (once the largest in Latin America) shrinking while the lower classes exploded out of control.

The Kirchner era (from 2001 to this day) is the cherry in the cake. By far, the most corrupt and prepotent government in all our history. The Kirchners (Nestor and his wife Cristina Fernández de Kirchner) punished the agricultural industry (which fought the confiscatory taxes that left them with no profit) by banning the export of meat and dairy products.

You read well, the government banned the exports of our flagship industries, thus losing foreign markets that were dominated by our country for decades.

在過去的幾十年中，人口階層發生了深刻的變化，中產階級（曾經是拉丁美洲最大的階層）正在萎縮，而下層階級則失控。

基什內爾時代（從2001年到今天）是蛋糕中的最美櫻桃。到目前為止，這是我們歷史上最腐敗，最優秀的政府。基什內爾（內斯特和他的妻子克里斯蒂娜·費爾南德斯·德基什內爾）通過禁止出口肉類和奶製品來懲罰農業產業（打擊沒有利潤的充公稅）。

你們讀得不錯，政府禁止我們旗艦產業的出口，從而失去了我國幾十年來主宰的外國市場。

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Three simple things:

1. Weakness for populism and caudillismo.

Argentinians love big personalities and want to be saved by them, which makes them easy prey for big mouths.

2. Big egos = bad team players.

Argentinians are usually great individuals but many will not think twice in letting down a partner to make themselves out stand. Every time there is an economic crisis the number of Argentinean expats grows exponentially.

3. Sense of self entitlement.

Argentinians usually think they deserve the best because they struggle to be the best and so they tend to sit and wait for the glory to fall from the sky once they win a couple of battles.

三件簡單的事情：

1.民粹主義和caudillismo的弱點

阿根廷人喜歡大人物，希望被他們拯救，這使得他們容易被他們的大嘴捕食。

2.大自我=糟糕的團隊協作。

阿根廷人通常是有偉大的個人，但許多人不會考慮何夥伴一起站出來。 每次出現經濟危機，阿根廷的外國人數量都會呈指數級增長。

3.自我的權利感。

阿根廷人通常認為他們應該得到最好的，因為他們努力成為最好的，一旦他們贏得了幾場小勝利，他們就傾向於等待榮耀從天上掉下來。

原文章出處：http://www.ltaaa.com/wtfy/24057.html

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