瑞銀中國經濟展望：房地產寬鬆不太可能 仍看到再次下調200個基點的存款準備金率，整體信貸增長放緩，市場利率上調但幅度有限

最近我們看到了很多進口商品稅收的調整，下調！雖然對於國家下調之後很多消費品價格是否真的下降大家心有餘悸，但下調這些消費品稅收，總是意味著更多的競爭，更多的海外商品進入，老百姓有更多的選擇空間。事實上，在房地產、投資、出口等受阻之後，消費可能已經成為拉動經濟車輪的最大動力，不管是降維消費或者高端消費，消費將維護經濟的穩定。瑞銀證券的的5月中國經濟展望報告很大程度上反應了這一趨勢。

What』s new

發生了什麼？

? April real activity data held up but weakness elsewhere implies moderation is underway. Industrial production surprised on the upside with a 7%y/y jump, exports saw a broad-based rebound and real estate investment stayed strong. Resumption of activities after a late start in March (post-NPC), resumption of production in China"s industrial North after the clean air campaign"s end, and firmer manufacturing activities all helped. But, FAI growth slid to a YTD low, property sales fell back into contraction, retail sales cooled and infrastructure FAI stayed weak.

【機器翻譯】4月份的實際活動數據持平，但其他地方表現疲弱溫和正在進行中。 工業生產帶來驚喜，同比增長7％，出口出現了廣泛的反彈，房地產投資保持強勁。 3月份開始後（NPC後）恢復活動，清潔空氣後，中國工業北方恢復生產活動的結束以及更堅定的製造活動都有所幫助。 但是，FAI增長下滑至年初至今低點，房地產銷售回落收縮，零售銷售降溫而基建固定資產投資依然疲弱。

? Some signs of pre-emptive policy fine-tuning have been sent, given global trade/growth uncertainties (e.g. April"s RRR cut, Politburo language shift), but no large-scale easing has been announced.

考慮到全球貿易/增長的不確定性（例如4月份降准，政治局語言轉變），一些先發制人政策微調的跡象已經發出，但沒有宣布大規模寬鬆政策。

? China and the US issued a joint statement on May 19 on "a consensus to take effective measures to substantially reduce US goods trade deficit with China", but no specific amount was mentioned. China pledged to ramp up its US good/service purchases, including "meaningful increase" in agriculture and energy exports, with details to be worked out later. US officials are due to visit China next to finalize a "framework".

中美兩國於5月19日發表聯合聲明，就「採取有效措施大幅減少美國與中國的貨物貿易逆差達成共識」，但沒有提及具體金額。 中國承諾加大在美國的良好/服務購買力度，其中包括農業和能源出口的「有意義的增長」，稍後將制定細節。 美國官員將在即將訪問中國之前完成一個「框架」。

What"s next

下一步是什麼？

? Big scale trade war seemingly averted for now, but fundamental differences remain, including China"s industrial policy and "Made in China 2025". For now, we see the RMB still pivoting on USD movements. In the long run, trade deals may quicken the decline of China"s current account surplus, adding depreciation pressure on the RMB. Recent events (e.g. ZTE) have led to concerns on how the global tech supply chain may be disrupted. Such uncertainty may lead to long-term shifts in trade & investment patterns.

目前似乎已經避免了大規模的貿易戰，但是根本的分歧仍然存在，包括中國的產業政策和「中國製造2025」。 就目前而言，我們看到人民幣仍然跟隨美元走勢為主。 從長遠來看，貿易交易可能會加速中國經常項目順差的下降，加大人民幣貶值壓力。 最近的事件（如中興通訊）引發了人們對全球科技供應鏈如何被打亂的擔憂。 這種不確定性可能導致貿易和投資模式的長期變化。

? More downward pressure coming in H2, mainly from weakening property and infrastructure activities, remains intact, with more visible growth pressures emerging in H2. A manufacturing FAI revival, resilient consumption and firm exports should offer some offset, but worsening trade frictions and weakerthan-expected global growth mean downside trade risk has risen.

主要來自房地產和基礎設施活動疲弱的下行壓力依然保持不變，下半年出現更明顯的增長壓力。 固定資產投資的復甦，彈性消費和穩健的出口應該會抵消，但貿易摩擦惡化和全球增長低於預期意味著下行貿易風險已經上升。

? What could see support? Household consumption and manufacturing/ emerging industries investment would rank high as priority support areas. What specific easing policy measures are used will be data dependent, but if growth slows notably, recently tightened PPP & infrastructure-related financing may ease. Property easing is unlikely but any monetary easing signal may bolster market sentiment. We still see up to another 200bp RRR cuts this year, slower overall credit growth, and elevated but range-bound market rates.

什麼可以看到支持？ 家庭消費和製造業/新興行業投資將作為優先支持領域排名第一。 採用哪些具體的寬鬆政策措施將取決於數據，但如果增長明顯放緩，最近收緊PPP和與基礎設施相關的融資可能會放鬆。房地產寬鬆不太可能，但任何貨幣寬鬆信號都可能增強市場情緒。今年我們仍看到再次下調200個基點的存款準備金率，整體信貸增長放緩，市場利率上調但幅度有限。

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