與其孤立自守，不如共享繁榮 Wider Avenues for India-China Cooperation

文/Mukul Sanwal

By Mukul Sanwal

上海合作組織是一個歐亞地區政治、經濟和軍事組織，由中國、哈薩克、吉爾吉斯斯坦、俄羅斯、塔吉克和烏茲別克領導人於2001年在上海成立。該組織致力於促進成員國在安全關切、軍事合作、情報共享和反恐方面的合作。印度和巴基斯坦加入後，該組織成員國涵蓋了全球40%的人口。

The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation is a Eurasian political, economic, and military organization established in Shanghai in 2001 by leaders of China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Its objectives are cooperation between member nations on security-related concerns, military cooperation, intelligence sharing and counter-terrorism. With the addition of Uzbekistan, India and Pakistan, the group covers 40 percent of the of the global population.

印度總理納倫德拉·莫迪在2017加入上海合作組織時說：「我期待著深化印度與上海合作組織的聯繫，這將有助於我們開展經濟、連通性和反恐等方面的合作」。此外，他還表示，期待與其他成員國合作，在共同推進國家發展和改善人民生活方面取得積極進展。

On joining the SCO in 2017, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi declared, 「I look forward to deepening India』s association with the SCO to work on economic, connectivity and counter-terrorism cooperation among other things.」. He added that he also looked forward to further progress in ties with SCO nations for 「mutual betterment and growth of our countries and our people.」

6月7日，青島上合峰會標誌。攝影/徐訊

印度與上海合作組織的交流重點將主要在反恐合作方面。此外，印度還有可能在中亞地區獲得更多的天然氣和石油勘探項目。上合組織將在區域地緣政治、安全和貿易談判中發揮作用，成為邁向亞洲世紀的重要推進力量。

Cooperation on counter-terrorism is expected to be a major chunk of India』s exchange with the SCO. India is also likely to get greater access to major gas and oil exploration projects in Central Asia. The grouping is expected to play a role in regional geo-politics, security and trade negotiations. It is a step towards achieving the Asian century. global population.

該地區未來的國際安全秩序將是一個值得討論的話題。隨著美國在2011年初提出「重返亞太戰略」這一項重大政策轉變，亞太地區安全一直處於不穩定狀態。目前，該戰略已與重新命名和擴展的「太平洋司令部」合併為「印度-太平洋司令部」，將三分之二的總軍事資產部署在亞太地區。最近，印度和另一歐亞大國俄羅斯同意聯手制定印度-太平洋地區非集團安全架構。這些事態發展將對上合組織安全相關的討論產生重要影響。

Future international security order in the region will be an area of discussion. Regional security is in a state of flux as the United States』 「pivot to Asia,」 a major policy shift first outlined in 2011, has consolidated with the re-named and extended Pacific Command into the Indo-Pacific Command, with two-thirds of capital military assets deployed in this region. India recently agreed with Russia, another Eurasian power, on a nonbloc security architecture for the Indo-Pacific region. These developments will have an impact on security-related discussions in the SCO.

共享連通

SHARED CONNECTIVITY

目前，由於各國都通過發展本國經濟而非軍事實力拓展國際影響力，因此貿易談判變得至關重要。美國對以規則為基礎的世界貿易組織的角色和作用提出質疑，與多個亞洲貿易夥伴存在摩擦，並宣布退出「跨太平洋夥伴關係」。

As countries are now gaining in influence due to economic strength rather than military might, discussions on trade will be important. The United States is questioning the role and relevance of the rulebased World Trade Organization and withdrawing from the Asian trade partnership and the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

中國將關注點由出口轉向國內消費市場，以此作為未來經濟增長的主要驅動力，並在堅持環境可持續發展的基礎上，在關鍵新技術領域（包括生物技術、信息技術和人工智慧）著力趕超西方國家。印度則憑藉其龐大的年輕人口正逐漸成為全球經濟增長的驅動力。在貿易和投資領域，中國和印度在支持多邊主義方面有很多利益共同點。

China has placed new emphasis on the domestic consumption market over exports as the principal driver of future economic growth and is leapfrogging the West in critical new technology sectors including biotechnology, informational technology, and artificial intelligence within the framework of environmentally sustainable development. India, with its young population, is emerging as a driver of global growth. In the area of trade and investment, there is much in common between the interests of China and India in supporting multilateralism.

6月7日，青島國際會議中心，上合峰會將在此舉行。攝影/徐訊

上海合作組織在歐亞關係、貿易和投資方面的突破將為所有成員國所期待。針對印度的擔憂，中國表示願意與其開展討論。因為一些印度主導的倡議也致力於推動南亞的連通性，關鍵問題就是怎樣將其相互融合。

A breakthrough on Eurasian connectivity, trade and investment will be an area to which all members of the SCO are looking forward. India』s External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj declined to endorse China』s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) at the recently concluded SCO Foreign Ministers』 meeting. China has indicated willingness to discuss concerns while other India-led initiatives promote connectivity in South Asia. The unresolved issue is about how they will converge.

印度主導的互聯互通倡議現在正全面展開。根據孟加拉-不丹-印度-尼泊爾汽車協議，一項途經印度的孟加拉-尼泊爾巴士服務已於4月23日起正式開通。雖然不丹因為議會反對暫時沒有加入，但允許其他協議方國家巴士通過，並表示一旦獲得議會批准將立即加入該協議。這便是一個由印度領導的倡議，即使所有成員不能同時參與，也可以通過建立物理連接，來挖掘巨大的合作潛力。

India-led connectivity initiatives are gaining steam. On April 23, a Bangladesh-Nepal bus service through India commenced under the Bangladesh- Bhutan-India-Nepal (BBIN) motor vehicles agreement. Although Bhutan did not ratify the agreement due to opposition from its parliament, the country encouraged others to move ahead, indicating that it hoped to join once it can secure parliamentary approval. This is an example of an India- led initiative establishing physical connectivity through India to foster immense cooperation potential even when all members are not able to participate at the same time.

未來連通與貿易

FUTURE CONNECTIVITY AND TRADE

中國的重新崛起表明了發展基礎設施建設和連通性的好處。中國已經從一個農業和農耕經濟為主的經濟體轉變為一個由特大城市、快速發展的城鎮和城市中產階級所主導的經濟體。據國家統計局數據統計，中國總體城市化率為59%，廣東是人口最多的省份，城市化率最高，達70%。相比之下，美國城市化率為82%，泰國為50%，印度為33%。這一轉變背後的驅動力主要包括改善基礎設施和運輸網路，推動經濟一體化，以及政策制定者重新平衡區域發展的舉措。

China』s re-emergence evidences the benefits of infrastructure development and connectivity. China has transformed from an agrarian and farm economy to one dominated by megacities, rapidly growing towns and an urban middle-class society. Overall, urbanization stands at 59 percent according to the National Bureau of Statistics, with Guangdong,the most-populous province, most citified with an urban ratio of 70 per cent. By comparison, U.S. urbanization is at 82 percent, Thailand 50 percent and India 33 percent. The drivers behind this shift include improved infrastructure and transport networks, better economic integration and policy-makers』 initiatives to rebalance regional development.

南亞擁有18億人口，但目前區域內貿易僅占國際貿易的5%，因為連通性仍然是一個主要障礙。非關稅壁壘持續影響區域內貨物和服務的流動。據估計，解決基礎設施不足問題可以消除80%的非關稅壁壘。此外，加強貿易，提高連通性還可以促進人際互動，增進相互了解和地區的外交聯繫。

South Asia, with a population of 1.8 billion, is currently conducting around 5% of intraregional trade because connectivity remains a barrier. Non-tariff barriers (NTBs) continue to affect the movement of goods and services within the region. It has been estimated that addressing infrastructure deficits can eliminate 80% of NTBs. In addition to enhancing trade, connectivity can significantly improve people-to-people interaction and lead to better understanding and closer diplomatic relations in the region.

2018年4月22日，北京，國務委員兼外交部長王毅在北京與印度外長斯瓦拉吉舉行會談。

中國和印度主導的區域倡議的相互融合還將廣泛惠及該地區的其他國家。中國所提出的「一帶一路」 倡議框架下的海上絲綢之路，跨越孟加拉灣，連接孟加拉、緬甸和斯里蘭卡。而南亞區域合作聯盟仍處於休眠狀態，由於印度和巴基斯坦之間的分歧，幾乎不指望它在近期發揮作用。孟加拉灣也仍然是最不易融合的區域，儘管該區域通過發展港口和航道，具有擴大國際貿易的巨大潛力。此外，印度領導的孟加拉灣多部門技術經濟合作倡議涉及孟加拉、不丹、印度、緬甸、尼泊爾、斯里蘭卡和泰國，在能源合作和電網互聯方面取得了積極進展。

Convergence between China and India-led regional initiatives would benefit states in the region. China is leading with its BRI. The Maritime Silk Route crosses the Bay of Bengal and reaches Bangladesh, Myanmar and Sri Lanka. The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) remains dormant with little expectation of it becoming functional in the near future, largely because of differences between India and Pakistan. The Bay of Bengal too remains among the least integrated regions despite the immense potential of enhancing trade through its ports and waterways. The India-led Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) involving Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand, has made solid progress in energy cooperation and grid interconnection.

因此，通過中印兩個亞洲大國間的相互協調和協商，以互補而非競爭的方式發展「一帶一路」倡議、孟加拉灣多部門技術經濟合作倡議、孟加拉-不丹-印度-尼泊爾汽車協議和其他區域性倡議，將給中國和印度以及周邊其他國家帶來巨大利益。

Developing the BRI, BIMSTEC and BBIN and regional agendas in a complementary rather than competing manner through coordination and consultation between the two Asian giants would lead to enormous benefits to both China and India as well as smaller countries in the region.

新目標

NEW GOALS

現在，需要一個新的框架串起這些聯通倡議，而這些倡議實際上正是一個全新的全球秩序的組成部分。因此，對未來全球秩序的影響將是青島峰會最重要的成果之一。

A new framework is needed with such connectivity initiatives becoming the building blocks of a new global order. Implications for the future of the global order will be among the most important outcomes of Qingdao.

二戰後，美國在兩個支柱的基礎上建立起目前的全球秩序：第一，包括聯合國、布雷頓森林體系、世貿組織在內的國際機構。第二，在制定議程和規則方面的霸權角色。這個角色是受其全球聯盟網路支持的，例如歐洲的北約組織和東亞的雙邊安全夥伴關係等。但隨著收入差距的不斷擴大和中產者收入的停滯，許多西方公民開始對這種安排和自己政府推行的民主形式感到失望。相比之下，中國和印度的收入卻持續增長，並隨著全球財富向亞洲轉移，有可能超越美國經濟。

The United States built the current order after World War II on two pillars: First, a number of international institutions including the UN, the Bretton Woods machinery and the GATT (later WTO). Second, the country maintained a hegemonic role in setting the agenda and designing the rules. This system was supported by its global network of alliances, such as NATO in Europe and bilateral security partnerships across East Asia. Many Western citizens are disillusioned with this arrangement and their own democratic forms of government with rising inequality and stagnation in median incomes, while incomes continue to rise in China and India. Those countryes have the potential to overtake the U.S. economy as global wealth shifts back to Asia.

中國和印度目前都在建立新的多邊機構，如亞洲基礎設施投資銀行和國際太陽能聯盟。因為如果只是簡單地複製當前的全球秩序，這些國家並不能發揮自己的作用，他們提出共享繁榮的經濟關切不被聯合國接納。中國和印度正在共同努力，就當前全球秩序下的實施議程和優先事項提出質疑，因為這些都是由西方國家主導制定的，沒有其他國家的參與。儘管中印兩國還沒有明確新的秩序會是什麼樣子，但他們已在氣候變化和世貿組織這兩個最重要的多邊合作領域開展了緊密合作。

Both China and India are creating new multilateral institutions such as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the International Solar Alliance. These countries do not see their role as simply replicating the current global order. Instead, they address economic concerns and promote sharing prosperity—realms that were kept out of the United Nations. Both China and India are working together to question the agenda and priorities of the current order which was established without input from other countries. However, they have yet to define what the new arrangements would look like, even as they work together closely on climate change and in the WTO, the two most important areas of multilateral cooperation.

亞洲世紀

ASIAN CENTURY

從單極到多極世界的結構性轉變，不應該通過西方視角來解讀和分析如何適應重新崛起的大國，而是重新回到歐洲人來到亞洲之前的世界。各國在利益、影響力和實力方面已與70年前建立國際秩序時有了很大不同，所以重新崛起的大國不會成為第二個「維持現狀國家」（主導國際秩序的西方國家）。另外一個進步是「影響範圍」也已不再是領土概念，因為中國已將其「一帶一路」倡議拓展至拉丁美洲。亞洲的利益並不是要在印度和中國之間做出選擇，而在於兩國如何相處。

The tectonic shifts from a unipolar to a multipolar world should not be analyzed through a Western lens focused on how to accommodate re-emerging powers, but rather as a return to the world that existed before the arrival of the Europeans in Asia. Interests, influence and power are very different than they were seventy years ago when the current world order was established, and re-emerging powers cannot become 『status quo powers』. Connected development eliminates 『spheres of influence』 as a territorial concept, as China spreads its 『One-Road-One-Belt』 initiative even as far as Latin America. Asia does not want to choose between India and China, and is really concerned about how they relate to each other.

今天的亞洲正在恢復其作為一個完整大陸的本來面目。它從來沒有贊同過現有的多邊框架，也沒有反對過多邊主義，而是期待中國和印度攜手制定新的目標，因為它們有著相似的國家發展訴求。

Asia is reverting to its historical equilibrium as an integrated continent. It never fully endorsed the current multilateral framework nor does it accept the rejection of multilateralism and is looking to China and India to jointly set the new goals because they have similar objectives in national development.

莫迪總理在「氣候正義」方面重新構建了全球氣候關注點，挑戰了西方的概念框架，將重點放在生態極限內的人類福祉上。中國也在國內和「一帶一路」倡議中推行「生態文明」的概念。此外，在重塑全球貿易以共享數字化世界繁榮方面，還需要新的理念。在一個相互關聯的城市化中產階級世界中，公平和環境是比之前的政治意識形態更為有力的能夠整合共識的議題。

Prime Minister Modi』s re-framing of global climate concern in terms of 『climate justice』 has challenged the Western conceptual framework to focus on human well-being within ecological limits. China is pushing the concept of 「ecological civilization」 at home and within the BRI. New ideas are also needed to reframe global trade to better share prosperity in a digitized world. In an interconnected urbanized middle-class world, equity and environment are more powerful integrating themes than earlier political ideologies.

老齡化社會、日益加劇的不平等和中產階級失業是制定國家政策時需要考慮的關鍵因素，各國領導人是最重要的決策者。中國和印度致力於鞏固雙邊關係，在剛剛結束的武漢峰會上，莫迪總理和習近平主席在解決邊界問題上達成了一致意見。會議著眼於新興世界秩序的廣闊範圍，關注以貿易、投資和資本流動等經濟活動為基礎共享繁榮，為召開一個有意義的上合峰會樹立了良好樣板。

Aging society, rising inequality and middle-class unemployment are key determining factors of national policy, and leaders and their ideas are now the biggest game-changers at the global level. As China and India seek to consolidate their relationships with neighboring states, the recently concluded Wuhan Summit between Prime Minister Modi and President Xi has led to a congruence of views on settling the colonial legacy of the border issue. There is a meeting of minds on the broad contours of the emerging world order focused on sharing prosperity based on economic engagement through trade, investment and capital flow, creating a sound template for a meaningful SCO meeting.

上海合作組織是否會認可亞洲地區主義的重要性，將對全球產生重要影響。可持續發展不是一個獨立的、無意義的、非重點的討論話題，這將成為全球治理的核心。舊的秩序框架將不再被接受，對它的支持者而言也是如此。因此，可以建立一個概念框架，將不同發展水平的國家聯繫在一起。與其以地區和大國為單位，孤立地看待世界，不如建立一個共享繁榮的世界觀，與他國合作共同確定新的全球目標。這取決於中國和印度能否共同努力，像曾經那樣，成為亞洲世紀的兩個重要支點。

The question is whether the SCO will accept the importance of Asian regionalism and if it will have global implications. Sustainable development will now be a central theme of global governance, rather than a stand-alone and meaningless side discussion. The old framework is no longer acceptable, even to its proponents, and could provide a conceptual framework to bring together countries at different levels of development. Rather than looking at the world in terms of regions and major powers in isolation, we now need a world view characterized by sharing prosperity and working with others to jointly determine new global goals. Outcomes depend on China and India working together as two nodes of the Asian Century, as has been the case throughout civilization.

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作者Mukul Sanwal是前聯合國外交官，清華大學客座教授。

The author is a former UN diplomat who has served as Visiting Professor atTsinghua University in Beijing.

本文為《中印對話》獨家稿件，歡迎分享，媒體轉載請聯繫我們。

This article is exclusive to China-India Dialogue. Feel free to share this article. To reprint this article, please contact us for permission.

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