勢不可當，中國買房團橫掃海外
Crowds swept into the Beijing Exhibition Center on a recent morning for a real-estate expo that drew thousands of people interested in foreign property.
不久前的一天早上，人們湧入北京展覽中心，這裡有一場房地產展會，成千上萬對外國房產感興趣的人來到這裡。
That kind of surging interest has created a flood of capital that is washing over cities throughout the globe, distorting home prices, irritating local residents—and defying almost every attempt to restrain it.
這種爆發性購買意願讓資本潮水般地湧入全球各個城市，扭曲了地產價格，讓當地居民惱火，幾乎任何試圖阻遏它的努力都不奏效。
In Vancouver, Chinese home-buyers snapped up homes so fast in 2016 that prices escalated at a rate of 30% a month compared with a year earlier. Officials imposed a 15% foreign-buyers tax, and Chinese buyers turned to Toronto, where they soon bid up home prices. Seeking to curb the market surge in the Toronto area, officials in the province of Ontario introduced their own 15% foreign-buyers tax in April last year.
在溫哥華，中國購房者瘋狂買房，勢頭之迅猛使2016年的房價每月同比上漲30%。當地官員決定徵收15%的的外國買家稅，中國買主就轉戰多倫多，很快就把那裡的房價推高。為了遏制多倫多樓市快速上漲，安大略省官員去年4月也推出15%的外國買家稅。
Chinese buyers had by then begun returning to Vancouver, driving prices to fresh highs in mid-2017 and provoking a new round of measures in February. By May, sales numbers had fallen 35% from a year earlier, but prices, on an adjusted basis, still climbed 11.5%, according to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver.
中國買家又回到了溫哥華，在2017年年中將房價推向新高，導致今年二月政府出台了新一輪調控措施。大溫哥華房地產委員會數據顯示，到今年5月，成交數同比下降了35%，但經過調整過的價格仍然攀升了11.5%。
The hot pursuit of places to park money abroad by Chinese investors drove an estimated $100 billion in property purchases outside China in 2016, according to Juwai.com, a Chinese real-estate website. The buying frenzy, which grew from $5 billion in 2010, helped swell prices for housing and commercial real estate in cities on the Pacific Rim and beyond.
中國房地產網站「居外網」說，2016年，中國投資者將資金轉到海外的熱門地區，預計導致中國以外地區的房地產購置達1000億美元。2010年，這一數字只有50億美元，這一購買潮推高了太平洋沿岸及其他地區住宅和商業地產價格。
Chinese buyers have scooped up condos, apartments and houses from Vancouver to Auckland to Sydney. While foreign capital was welcome in the years following the financial crisis, officials have found that trying to control the flood of foreign money into housing is like squeezing a balloon: Taxes on foreign buyers in one city only divert them to another spot—and sometimes buyers return, taxes or no taxes.
中國買家橫掃各處的公寓、住宅和別墅，從溫哥華到奧克蘭再到悉尼。金融危機後，外國資本受到歡迎，官員發現控制外國資本融入地產市場就像擠壓氣球：一個城市徵收外國買家稅，他們就去另一個，有時買家還會殺個回馬槍，不管有稅沒稅。
Governments world-wide 「are still at the trial-and-error stage,」 said Aaron Terrazas, senior economist at Seattle-basedZillow Group, an online real-estate listing service. 「They are trying to figure what works and what doesn』t.」
西雅圖在線地產評級公司Zillow集團高級經濟學家阿倫·特拉扎斯說，世界各地的政府「仍然處在試錯階段」，「他們在嘗試哪些能行，哪些沒有用處」。
Officials in Canada and Australia, where relatively affordable homes and large Mandarin-speaking populations attract Chinese buyers, worry the price bubbles threaten their regional economies.
加拿大和澳大利亞的房產不貴，又有大批會說漢語的人口，這吸引了中國買家，當地官員擔心價格泡沫會危害地區經濟。
Montreal』s housing market has shown no signs of overheating, but after Valerie Plante was sworn in last year as mayor, she asked provincial officials for authority to tax foreigners buying property in Canada』s second-largest city.
蒙特利爾的房產市場沒有過熱的跡象，但瓦萊利·普朗特去年就任市長以後，她要求本省官員授權在加拿大第二大城市徵收外國買家稅。
After seeing what happened in Vancouver and Toronto, Ms. Plante worried her city was next. 「We need to be very cautious,」 a spokeswoman for the mayor』s office said.
普朗特女士目睹了溫哥華和多倫多發生的變化，她擔心下一個會是蒙特利爾。市長辦公室的一名發言人說：「我們需要特別小心」。
At the Beijing real-estate expo in April, Bao Yingqi of B.Y. Realty, was, in fact, making a pitch for Montreal, saying the city has yet to impose high taxes on foreign buyers. 「This makes Montreal stand out for investors,」 she said.
在4月舉辦的北京地產展上，B.Y.不動產的包穎琦（音）事實上就在推銷蒙特利爾，她說這個城市還沒有對外國買家徵收高額稅款，「這讓蒙特利爾脫穎而出」。
Montreal has new housing and an interesting French-speaking culture, said Ms. Bao, who was wearing a black beret. She sat in a booth decorated with a Canadian flag and described Montreal as the 「Paris of the West.」
戴著黑色貝雷帽的包女士說，蒙特利爾房子新，有法語文化風情。她坐在由一面加拿大國旗裝飾的展台里，把蒙特利爾形容為「西半球的巴黎」。
Zhang Yuxing, a 43-year-old Beijing resident, listened. He had planned on Vancouver, but taxes have gone too high.
43歲的北京居民張玉興（音）認真聽著，他本計劃在溫哥華買房，可稅實在太高了。
Now, he said, his top choice is Montreal.
他現在說，他首選蒙特利爾了。
『Unstoppable juggernaut』 | 勢不可擋
The impact of foreign buyers on home prices isn』t entirely clear, according to analysts and the International Monetary Fund. Low interest rates, liberal immigration policies in Canada and Australia as well as a tight housing supply in some areas also contributed to rising home prices.
國際貨幣基金組織的分析顯示，外國買家對房價的影響尚不清楚。加拿大和澳大利亞的低利率、自由移民政策以及某些地區供應緊張，這同樣導致了房價上升。
Accurately tracking foreign home-buyers isn』t easy, although some local governments can now tally the number of people paying foreign-buyer taxes.Some purchases aren』t counted, for instance, when foreign buyers hold dual citizenship, or if the transactions are made through companies or local proxies that obscure a buyer』s identity.
確切追蹤外國買家並不容易，儘管某些當地政府可以提供繳納外國買家稅的人數。有些沒有計算在內，例如外國買家有雙重國籍，或是他們的交易通過公司或地區代理完成，買主身份就難以辨別了。
In Australia, Jonathan Kearns, the Reserve Bank of Australia』s head of financial stability, said in November that he estimated foreign buyers accounted for 10% to 15% of homes under construction, equal to about 5% of total residential sales in the country.
11月，澳大利亞儲備銀行金融穩定主任喬納森·卡恩斯說，他估計外國買家購買了10%到15%的在建房產，相當於該國所有住宅銷售額的5%。
The share was highest in Melbourne and Sydney, Mr. Kearns said, where foreign buyers accounted for around a quarter of newly built apartments. Around three-quarters of the foreign buyers were from China, he said.
卡恩斯說其中墨爾本和悉尼比例最高，外國買家購買了新建房屋的約四分之一。他說，其中四分之三的買家來自中國。
Sydney』s home state of New South Wales doubled its foreign-buyers tax to 8% in July 2017, but that didn』t arrest demand.
悉尼所在的新南威爾士州在2017年7月將外國買家稅翻倍，增加到8%，但並未抑制需求。
The rise in home prices has recently slowed in Sydney and Melbourne, but Chinese developers still dominate foreign investment in residential development across Australia, according to real estate company Knight Frank. Chinese nationals bought $1.5 billion in residential sites last year, about a third of Australia』s total.
最近悉尼和墨爾本的房價上漲趨緩，但奈特·弗蘭克地產公司數據顯示，外國投資中，中國買家依然主導著全澳住宅開發。去年中國人花15億美元用於購買地塊，佔澳大利亞總量的三分之一。
Chinese property buying is an 「unstoppable juggernaut,」 said Jon Ellis, chief executive of Investorist, an online portal for cross-border property transactions.Outgoing Vancouver Mayor Gregor Robertson described it as the 「water bed effect of capital flooding wherever taxes are lowest and regulation is weak.」
一家跨境地產交易網站的總裁瓊·埃利斯說，中國人購買地產「勢不可當」。直言不諱的溫哥華市長格雷格·羅伯森將其形容為「稅最低、監管弱時出現的資本潮產生的水床效應」。
For-sale signs in Vancouver feature Mandarin characters. Older abodes are leveled to make way for the construction of new homes, which real-estate agents say Chinese buyers prefer. Bus shelters and benches in Richmond, a suburb south of Vancouver』s airport, carry real-estate ads, also in Mandarin.
溫哥華「出售」都是用中文打的。老住宅被推平蓋上新房，地產經紀人說中國人喜歡新房。溫哥華機場南郊里士滿的公交站亭和座椅上都是地產廣告，全是中文。
Mr. Robertson said rising home prices dominated much of his decadelong tenure. One reason was a lack of coordination among the three main levels of Canadian government—federal, provincial and municipal, he said.
羅伯森說，他干這份工作十年了，大部分時間房價都在上漲。他說，一個原因是加拿大聯邦、省和市政府三個層級缺乏協調。
「It』s a complex challenge between regulating offshore investment, local real-estate practices and addressing housing supply within cities, all in sync,」 Mr. Robertson said in an interview. 「The reality is that interventions take time and aren』t wholly predictable.」
「這是同時監管海外投資和地區房地產開發與解決城市內房屋供應兩者之間的複雜挑戰，」羅伯森接受採訪時說。「現實是干預需要時間，也不是都有用。」
After the first Vancouver 15% tax failed to put a lid on foreign buyers, Mr. Robertson worked with the province of British Columbia on more aggressive steps. In February, province officials raised the foreign-buyers tax to 20% and expanded coverage well beyond Vancouver. Officials also imposed a new levy—0.5% of the property value and climbing to 2% next year—on homeowners who don』t pay income tax in Canada.
溫哥華徵收15%的稅未能遏制買家，羅伯森和不列顛哥倫比亞政府合作，準備推行更嚴厲的措施。2月，省官員將外國買家稅提高到20%，將使用範圍擴展到溫哥華以外。官員還對未在加拿大繳納收入稅的房主徵收了新的稅，即房產價值的0.5%，今年漲到了2%。
In April, British Columbia also announced measures to deter the resale of condo units before construction was completed, to discourage investors from flipping units before they are occupied.
4月，不列顛哥倫比亞還推出措施，阻止公寓在建成前再次出售，遏制投資者不住只炒。
At the Beijing expo, Florence Chan said she originally wanted to buy a home in Vancouver but changed her mind. 「The taxes are too high,」 she said, adding that Melbourne is looking better.
在北京展覽會上，弗洛倫斯·陳說她最初想在溫哥華買房，後來改變了主意。她說，「稅太高了」，墨爾本感覺更好。
Chinese buyers like the swanky 661 Chapel Street, a luxury condominium complex in Melbourne.
中國買家喜歡時髦的雅痞街661號，這裡是墨爾本豪華的居住區。
In December, Aw Sei Cheh, general manager of the project for Malaysian developer Gamuda Land, said Chinese buyers accounted for roughly 10% of sales at the complex, which has private dining rooms, a wine cellar, a theater and a library.Prices start around $410,000 for a one-bedroom, to more than $2 million for three-bedroom units. One appeal is location. The complex is close to several top universities where some Chinese buyers intend to send their children, Mr. Aw said.
12月，開發這個項目的馬來西亞開發商金務大置地總經理Aw Sei Cheh說，中國買家購買了其中的大約十分之一，建築里有私人餐廳、酒窖、影院和圖書館。價格大概是一室一廳41萬美元，3室一廳超過200萬美元。優勢是位置，這裡距離頂級大學不遠，有些中國買家買房是送給子女的。
Loopholes in limits | 漏洞重重
Beijing has tried to limit capital flight, fearing it shakes confidence in the national economy and could potentially weaken the yuan.
中國政府試圖限制資本外逃，擔心這會動搖對國家經濟的信心，可能讓人民幣走低。
A recent crackdown prompted several Chinese tycoons to unwind foreign purchases by their companies acquired in debt-fueled global shopping sprees, including trophy office towers and luxury hotels.
最近的治理讓一些中國大佬撤回海外併購計劃，他們動用債券在全球大肆購買，其中包括高級寫字樓和豪華酒店。
Officially, Chinese citizens are only allowed to exchange no more than $50,000 worth of yuan a year. Yet people in the industry point to loopholes.
按規定，中國公民每年只能換匯5萬美元，但行內人知道很多漏洞。
Chinese mom-and-pop investors sidestep limits, for instance, by linking real-estate purchases to the college education of children living abroad; buying such luxury goods as Rolex watches in yuan and exchanging them for dollars to use toward property; or friends and family paying to an overseas account.
例如，中國的家庭投資者可以將購買房地產與子女海外教育綁定在一起，從而繞過限制，或者用人民幣購買昂貴的勞力士手錶，並退貨換成美元用於買房，或者由朋友或家人向海外賬戶打錢。
One desirable target has been the harbor city of Auckland, New Zealand, home to just over a million people.
他們一個青睞的目標是紐西蘭海濱城市奧克蘭，這裡只有一百多萬人。
Auckland was named the world』s hottest city for luxury real estate based on sales in 2015 by a Christie』s International Real Estate survey. Its open-door immigration policy and light regulation of foreign property deals helped drive 63% annual growth in $1 million-plus home sales in 2015.
2015年克里斯蒂國際地產調查將奧克蘭列為世界上最熱門的豪華地產城市。紐西蘭的開放移民政策和對外國地產交易的放任式監管讓2015年，1百萬美元以上的房產銷售增加了63%。
Last year, a political backlash erupted over complaints that the city had grown too expensive. New Zealand homeownership rates are at their lowest since 1951, national data show; a quarter of residents under 40 own their home compared with half that age group in 1991.
去年有人抱怨城市房價太貴了，政治上出現反對之聲。國家數據顯示，紐西蘭的房屋自有率創1951年以來的新低，四十歲以下只有四分之一的人有自己的房子，1991年這一比例是二分之一。
The center-left Labour Party campaigned on housing measures, and once elected in October pledged a ban on foreign speculators buying existing residential property. The new government also wants to reduce immigration.
中左翼的工黨提議採取措施，承諾如果10月當選，禁止外國炒房者購買現有住宅。新政府還準備減少移民。
「We are determined to make it easier for Kiwis to buy their first home so we are stopping foreign speculators buying houses and driving up prices,」 Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said at news conference last fall.
「我們決心讓紐西蘭人更輕鬆地購買第一套房屋，因此我們要阻止外國炒家購買房屋和推高價格，」黨魁傑辛達·阿德恩在去年秋天說。
House prices initially rose as lawmakers considered restrictions in foreign investment. Benjamin Liu, an agent with Ray White Real Estate in Auckland, said one Chinese buyer booked a flight after hearing about the proposed ban.
房價上漲，議員考慮對外國投資設限。奧克蘭雷·懷特地產公司經紀人本傑明·劉說，一個中國人聽說禁令提議後包了一架飛機過來。
Foreign capital is now returning to Canada, driving the latest surge in home prices. Buyers from China and the U.S. have found Victoria, the small capital of British Columbia that sits on an island west of Vancouver.
外國資本現在回到了加拿大，推動新一輪房價上漲。中國和美國買家發現了溫哥華以西不列顛哥倫比亞首都維多利亞小城。
Victoria was declared the world』s hottest new housing market last year in Christie』s International Real Estate survey, based on a 29% increase in annual sales of million-dollar-plus homes. Single-family homes in the Victoria area hit a record high of about $570,000 in May, up 9% from a year earlier, according to the Victoria Real Estate Board.
克里斯蒂國際地產調查稱，去年維多利亞是世界最熱的新興地產市場，以美元計年銷售額增長29%。維多利亞地產委員會數據顯示，維多利亞地區的獨棟房屋創新高，五月達到57萬美元，同比增長了9%。
「Victoria is experiencing the same rapid growth in housing prices and sales volumes that have strengthened Toronto and Vancouver in recent years,」 Christie』s International said in its survey last month. 「If Toronto and Vancouver can be a measure, it is likely Victoria will continue to perform well despite [new] regulations」 targeting foreign buyers.
「維多利亞的房價和房屋銷量以今年來多倫多和溫哥華的房價上漲速度增長，」克里斯蒂國際上個月的調查說。「如果多倫多和溫哥華可以作為借鑒，就算有針對外國買家的新監管，維多利亞也會表現出色。」
Attention has already turned to Malaysia and Thailand, which now tops the list for Chinese buyer inquiries, ahead of the U.S. and Australia, according to Juwai.com. Two years ago, Thailand ranked sixth.
現在買家們的注意力已經轉到了馬來西亞和泰國，居外網表示，現在兩國是中國買家詢問最多的地方，比美國和澳大利亞還多。兩年前，泰國排名第六。
Over the next decade, Juwai.com predicts that Chinese investors will spend $1.5 trillion abroad, as much as half of that in foreign property.
居外網預計，未來十年，中國投資者將在海外支出1.5萬億美元，購買一半的外國地產。
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