BNPP中國研究：轉向政策寬鬆 從去槓桿到穩增長 基礎設施仍然是最方便的槓桿

【編者按：不管疫苗怎麼樣，也不管高血壓葯怎麼樣，一切都會過去，生命還要繼續！所以小編覺得我們還是要回到正常的軌道來，今天繼續為大家提供讀報告，很多人留言，問小編什麼時候發報告的，小編再次說一下，這公眾號只是小編的讀書筆記，和大家一樣，當有些人在抖抖病的時候小編看一些資料，然後覺得可以的就記錄並推薦給大家，所以沒時間，也可能有一天沒有。還有人說小編經常有錯別字，真的，前天的大標題都錯了，因為那天晚上真的有點困了，不過相信大家都懂了小編的意思，足夠了，也說明確實是小編碼字的。還有人說小編的字體小，排版亂。。。。確實，接受批評，但要改確實很難呢，還有人對看了摘要還想看的，請看要報告欄目說明】

China: Shift to policy easing

概要：

?財政和貨幣寬鬆措施表明中國當局的優先事項正在推動國內需求穩定增長，這是從上半年解決金融風險的轉變。

?政策轉變伴隨著增長放緩和國內信貸風險上升，再加上與美國發生貿易戰的風險。

?財政擴張將來自調動財政盈餘和加速債券發行，基礎設施投資有助於向地方政府融資平台提供貸款。

?通過放寬貸款額度，債券投資和精選影子產品，增加流動性注入和放寬信貸條件，放寬貨幣政策。

?The State Council meeting on 23 July gave the clearest signal so far, in our view, that the government』s policy priority has switched to stabilising economic growth from curbing financial risks. The meeting, chaired by Premier Li Keqiang, decided on a number of monetary and fiscal policy measures to support investment and domestic demand.

在我們看來，7月23日的國務院會議發出了最明確的信號，即政府的政策優先轉向穩定經濟增長以遏制金融風險。這次會議由李總理主持，決定了一系列支持投資和內需的貨幣和財政政策措施

? Fiscal policy is to be more proactive. On top of the RMB 1.1trn planned tax cuts, another measure worth RMB 65bn will allow companies to deduct 75% of their R&D expenses from their tax base. Infrastructure projects are to be boosted with receipts from the issuance of special local government bonds, with a target of RMB 1.35trn set for 2018.

財政政策應更加積極主動。除了人民幣1.1萬億元的計劃減稅外，另一項價值650億元人民幣的措施將允許公司從其稅基中扣除75％的研發費用。基礎設施項目將通過發行特殊地方政府債券的收入來提振，目標是2018年設定1.35萬億元人民幣。

? Monetary policy is to be more accommodative. Monetary authorities are to be required to keep total social financing at a reasonable level, while maintaining ample liquidity and pushing banks to support micro/small businesses and debt-to-equity swaps.

貨幣政策要更加寬鬆。要求貨幣當局將社會融資總額保持在合理水平，同時保持充足的流動性，並推動銀行支持微型/小型企業和債轉股。

? To satisfy funding demands of projects already under construction, authorities will encourage banks to meet reasonable financing demands from local government financing vehicles and to mobilise existing fiscal deposits, so as to avoid half-finished projects.

為了滿足已在建項目的資金需求，當局將鼓勵銀行滿足當地政府融資工具的合理融資需求，調動現有的財政存款，以避免爛尾項目。

? Many public investment projects in transport, oil & gas and telecom will be opened up to private capital.

許多運輸，石油和天然氣以及電信的公共投資項目將向私人資本開放

? Officials will tackle 『zombie』 companies to improve capital allocation.

?官員將處理「殭屍」公司以改善資本配置。

Complex environment at home and abroad國內外環境複雜

Ways to stimulate domestic demand

刺激內需的方法

The past week saw a rare public spat between the central bank and the finance ministry that suggests to us a reluctance on both sides to ease policy. The People』s Bank of China has been urging the finance ministry to support the economy through fiscal expansion and to take over the implicit debt of local government. Tasked with ensuring financial stability, the central bank is mindful that monetary easing risks pushing up leverage further and inflating asset bubbles.

For its part, the ministry – accountable for managing government debt – has argued that fiscal policy is already expansionary and warned of potential for moral hazard if the central government pays local governments』 debts. More fiscal expansion would mean more debt accumulation.

過去一周，中央銀行和財政部之間發生了罕見的公開爭吵

向我們暗示雙方都不願放鬆政策。中國人民銀行一直都是

敦促財政部通過財政擴張支持經濟並接管地方政府的隱性債務。 中央銀行的任務是確保金融穩定注意到貨幣寬鬆政策可能會進一步推高槓桿率並推高資產泡沫。

就其本身而言，該部門 - 負責管理政府債務 - 一直認為財政

政策已經是擴張性的，並警告道，如果中央為地方買單可能存在道德風險。 更多的財政擴張意味著更多的債務積累。

Infrastructure remains handiest lever

基礎設施仍然是最方便的槓桿

Growth stabilisation at the cost of higher leverage增長穩定的代價是更高槓桿

In our view, financial deleveraging has already given way to growth stabilisation. The authorities are resorting to old tricks of infrastructure investment stimulus to stabilise economic growth. In the short term, it could provide a cushion to growth deceleration emanating from exports and the property sector. The cost, however, promises to be continuing rises in macro leverage (ie, debt/GDP ratio) and local government implicit debt.

In the longer term, however, both monetary policy and fiscal policy are ineffective in boosting GDP growth. Our long-standing view is that structural reforms – to SOEs, urbanisation and rural land – offer the only way to unleash China』s growth potential.

我們認為，金融去槓桿化已經讓位於經濟增長穩定。 當局

正在採取基本的基礎設施投資刺激措施來穩定經濟增長。 在從短期來看，它可以緩解出口和出口帶來的增長減速房地產業。 然而，成本有望繼續上升宏觀槓桿（即債務/ GDP比率）和地方政府隱性債務。然而，從長期來看，貨幣政策和財政政策在提振方面都是無效的GDP增長。 我們長期以來的觀點是結構改革 - 對國有企業，城市化和農村土地 - 提供釋放中國增長潛力的唯一途徑。

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