Is the US Economy Really Going to Pop 4.5% in Q2?

by Wolf Richter

At least one of them is very wrong: Atlanta Fed GDPNow v. New York Fed Nowcast.

在亞特蘭大聯儲的GDPNow模型和紐約聯儲的Nowcast模型的預測結果之間至少有一個錯的很離譜

On July 27, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release its 「advance estimate」 of GDP growth for the second quarter. Based on preliminary and incomplete data, this number is what everyone puts under the microscope.

7月27日，美國經濟分析局BEA將發布對二季度美國GDP增速的「先行預測」報告，該預測是基於經濟指標的初值和並非全部的經濟數據而產生的，人人都想對該結果仔細審視一番。

On August 29, the BEA will release its 「second estimate」 for Q2 GDP growth, which will include more data. On September 27, the BEA will release its 「third estimate.」 In future years, it will further revise GDP growth as more data becomes available or gets revised. Only China releases a GDP growth rate that is perfect on day one, is always very high, comes out before the US release, and never needs to be revised.

8月29日，美國經濟分析局將發布對二季度美國GDP增速的「二次預測」結果，這次將包括更多的經濟數據。9月27日，BEA將公布「三次預測」的結果。在未來幾年裡，隨著越來越多的經濟數據變得可資利用或被修正，BEA將對美國GDP的增速進行進一步的修正。只有中國才會在美國公布同類數據之前一次性公布靚麗無比，總是很高的GDP增速，而且永遠不會對其進行修正。

But in the US, even as the revised numbers get more accurate, the least complete and reliable 「advance estimate」 gets the most media attention.

但在美國，雖然修正後的經濟數據變得更加精確，但信息不是很完全以及可靠性略差一些的「先行預測」結果卻得到了大多數媒體的關注。

Outside the BEA, an army of economists struggle to estimate what the 「advance estimate」 of GDP growth is going to be – including in the Federal Reserve machinery. The Atlanta Fed with its GDPNow and the New York Fed with its Nowcast just came out with very different forecasts.

除了BEA，還有很多經濟學家致力於測算GDP增速的先行預測結果，這其中也包括了美國聯邦儲備銀行體系內的各位專家們。亞特蘭大聯儲的GDPNow模型和紐約聯儲的Nowcast模型卻拿出了完全不同的預測結果。

The Atlanta Fed is out with a huge GDP growth number for Q2, after raising it from already high levels in early July: Its nowcast hit 4.5% on July 16 and stayed there on July 18 after real consumer spending for May, industrial production, real private fixed investment, and real private inventory investment data were released.

亞特蘭大聯儲對二季度美國GDP的預測結果高得驚人，比7月初已經很高的預測結果更上一層樓，7月16日其模型的預測值為4.5%，並在此水平上保持到了7月18日，直到當天公布了五月份美國消費者開支，工業產出，私人固定資產投資的實際增速以及私人庫存的實際數據。

These nowcasts are supposed to get more accurate as data for the quarter accumulates. The quarter is over, and June data is starting to be included – though June』s consumer spending data, a biggie, is still missing:

亞特蘭大聯儲的GDPNow模型的預測理應更精確才對，因為數據是一個季度一個季度累積下來的。二季度結束了，六月份的數據正在被統計進去，儘管很重要的六月份消費開支數據尚缺失：

The GDP estimates of the 「Blue Chip」 economists surveyed by the Atlanta Fed are in the range between 3.3% and 4.6% (shaded area). So the Atlanta Fed』s 4.5% is at the top of the range of the Blue Chip economists. That says something!

在上圖中，亞特拉大聯儲訪談的「主流」經濟學家們對二季度美國GDP的預測結果位於3.3%至4.6%之間，見陰影部分所示。因此亞特拉大聯儲關於4.5%的預測結果位於主流經濟學家預測區間的頂端，這就說明了一些問題！

Annual rate means that if the economy grows for four quarters in a row at the rate of the current quarter, the total annual growth would be 4.5% compared to the prior year.

4.5%的年化增速意味著如果美國經濟按照當前的季度增速連續增長四個季度，那麼與上年度同期相比總的年度增速將達到4.5%。

4.5%的季節性調整過的GDP年化增速大到什麼程度？對美國來講這是個很大的數字。上一次美國經濟達到4.5%的增速是啥時候。。。哦，我們不得不好好翻翻歷史書了。。。看一下是以前的。。。柯林頓政權時期。。。是2000年二季度的5.2%。

So the Atlanta Fed』s nowcast is truly an outlier – practically a miracle.

However, the New York Fed』s nowcast is raining on this parade. Released every Friday, it peaked on June 1 at 3.26% and has since been indecline, going the opposite direction of the Atlanta Fed』s GDPNow. Friday』s estimate dropped to 2.69%, the lowest in the series for Q2:

這麼一看，亞特拉大聯儲的GDPNow模型簡直是個另類，實際上成了一個迷。但是紐約聯儲的nowcast模型預測的結果好比給前者澆了一盆涼水，每周五都會公布一次nowcast模型的預測結果，最高值是6月1日的3.26%，從那以後結果一路下滑，與亞特拉大聯儲的GDPNow模型預測結果相反。本周五公布的結果掉到了2.69%，為二季度GDP增速的一系列預測結果中的最低值：

The colored columns in the chart above show the impact of each broad category of data on the Nowcast. And since the beginning of June, there were more and bigger negatives than positives. Not very inspiring.These are the broad categories:

上圖中用各種顏色標識的柱體顯示的是nowcast模型中各大類數據的影響。自6月初以來，與積極因素相比，負面因素越來越多，產生的影響越來越大，這可不是啥好消息。以下為各主要分類：

那麼，當前2.7%的GDP年化增速很高嗎？對近期的增長態勢來講這個增速還是很高的，但卻低於2008年金融危機以來五個季度的增速，包括2018年一季度。在亞特拉大聯儲的GDPNow模型的預測結果被視為另類的同時，下圖中綠線表示的紐約聯儲的nowcast模型預測結果卻完全處於金融危機後美國GDP增速的正常變動範圍內。

So which estimate will be closer to BEA』s 「advance estimate」 when it』s released on July 27? From where I sit, the New York Fed』s estimate looks more realistic than the Atlanta Fed』s estimate: 4.5% is just a huge number for the US economy, given the growth history of the past 20 years. Frankly, even hitting the New York Fed』s 2.7% growth rate would be good. We will find out on July 27. Meanwhile, I』m wondering, why do they differ this much?

那麼哪一個結果將更接近BEA將於7月27日公布的「先行預測」數值？從我的角度看，紐約聯儲的預測結果看上去比亞特蘭大聯儲的更真實一些：考慮到過去二十年美國經濟的增長曆程，4.5%的增速對美國經濟來說簡直是太高了。坦率的講，即使二季度美國GDP增速達到紐約聯儲預測的2.7%也是很不錯的，7月27日結果就將揭曉。與此同時，我也在琢磨，為什麼這兩個預測結果之間會有如此大的差別呢？

One possibility is that the economy in Q2 hit it out of the ballpark, and only the Atlanta Fed』s model saw it. But I doubt that.

有一種可能性是二季度的美國經濟好得出乎預料，只有亞特拉大聯儲的預測模型看到了這一點。但是我對此不敢苟同。

Another possibility is inflation. The annualized GDP growth rates are adjusted for inflation – so 「real」 GDP growth rates. Consumer price inflation has been rising sharply. In June, inflation as measured by CPI, rose 2.9%, the biggest increase since February 2012. The Atlanta Fed』s model might not have fully captured the impact of inflation.

另一種可能性是通脹因素。GDP年化增速是對通脹率進行調整過的，也就是「真實的」GDP增速。消費物價指數最近一直在大幅上漲，6月份以消費物價指數表示的通脹率上漲了2.9%，為2012年2月份以來最快的增速。亞特拉大聯儲的預測模型可能並沒有完全考慮到通脹上漲因素的影響。

The reason I』m wondering about this is because 「real」 consumer spending, which accounts for nearly 70% of GDP, rose only 2.6% in April year-over-year, and 2.3% in May. June』s data will be released later this month. But with real consumer spending growing at only 2.3%, it』s nearly impossible to get to 4.5% real GDP growth.

我困惑的原因在於，在GDP總量中佔比接近70%的「實際」消費開支，在四月份同比只增長了2.6%，五月份的同比增速為2.3%。六月份的數據將在本月末公布。但是由於5月份消費開支的實際增速只有2.3%，因此二季度GDP的實際增速幾乎不太可能達到4.5%。

So for now, the Atlanta Fed』s GDPNow estimate of 4.5% GDP growth in Q2 is a mystery seeking an explanation.

因此就當前而言，亞特拉大聯儲GDPNow模型所做的二季度美國GDP增速為4.5%的預測結果是一個有待合理解釋的謎團。

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