號外，美國提議重啟貿易談判！為什麼要看這份報告！摩根士丹利——中國金融出清路線圖VI：信貸增長是否足夠覆蓋2019年信貸需求？

新聞 09-13

信貸增長是否足夠覆蓋2019年信貸需求？

基本結論：近期將影響信貸供求的關於緊縮和寬鬆方面的政策讓信貸的前景難以預測。我們詳細的自下而上分析顯示，信貸總量增長趨於穩定下半年9.5％，2019年反彈至10.5％。

我們預計信貸總體增長將趨於穩定，並有可能在2019年實現小幅反彈。

We expect stabilizing total credit growth, with some potential for a modest rebound in 2019.Despite modification of new wealth management product (WMP) rules, most of the financial cleanup related policies remain intact. In addition, MOF and financial regulators have not notably relaxed their strict attitude on low quality local infrastructure investments despite the approval of some national projects, based on our channel checks. Following our discussion with many banks, we estimate they still provide the funding for around 75% of all credit in China (over 80% if bank WMPs are included). We have done a channel by channel analysis to assess the potential pace of total credit growth following the recent policy mix, including higher local government bond issuance.

While we expect bank loan growth to pick up to around 14% yoy and total banks" on-balance-sheet credit growth to pick up to more than 12% yoy in 2H18 and 2019 from 12.7% and 9%, respectively, in 1H18, we believe the growth in real total credit in China will just stabilize at close to 9.5% yoy in 2H18, largely in line with 1H18 levels but still much lower than 18-19% in 2016 and 12-13% in 2017, and rebound modestly to 10.5% in 2019 due to slower growth in credit supported by various asset management products (AMP) and other nonbank/non AMP channels. We believe this will represent a good balance of reasonable credit supply and continued efforts on financial cleanup.

比增長數字更值得注意的是信貸增長足以滿足理性需求，並略有改善，這應該是一個關鍵的積極因素。

Credit growth sufficient to meet rational demand, with marginal improvement more notable than the growth numbers suggest, should be a key positive.

Despite total credit growth of around 9.5% and 10.5%, we estimate the financial system will still supply around Rmb22tn and Rmb27tn of new credit to the economy in 2018 and 2019, which should be sufficient to meet rational credit demand in China even after factoring in a rebound in infrastructure fixed asset investment (FAI) to mid single digits due to 1) an improved overall investment mix with a greater contribution from service and industrial sectors that are less reliant on new credit, and 2) higher credit utilization efficiency via more transparent channels. Credit demand wise, we think infrastructure, retail and government will remain the largest demand sectors, generating around 80% of total new credit. At the same time, we believe the rational credit supply will continue to drive deleveraging in the less efficient part of the economy, particularly at some large corporates. On the positive side, we also expect the reported adjusted total social financing (TSF) to remain at around 11.8% in 2H18and pick up to around 12.2% in 2019, which could support market sentiment more. More importantly, we expect the amount of new credits will increase to Rmb13-14tn in 2H18 vs. just Rmb8tn in 1H18; this would be a key improvement, in our view.

對銀行的影響以及對我們分析的風險

Implications for banks, and risks to our analysis:We believe the current pace of credit growth will still support loan yields, a deepening of the yield curve and banks" NIM, although it could still drive lumpier (rather than a rise in) NPL formation but stable credit costs due to the cushion built by major banks. We see a rise in social securities payments by companies, albeit with some mitigating factors after the State Council Meeting, as a risk to quality credit demand and credit growth, and we believe the government could support the downside risk via a local government financing vehicle (LGFV) debt swap, a potential risk weighting cut for local government bonds and tax cuts. Overall we expect stable NIMs at ICBC, CCB, ABC and PSBC, and some NIM rebound at BOC, CITIC Bank and Minsheng. Our top picks remain CCB, PSBC, ABC and CITIC-H.