iAsk x China Daily：時間是投資者最好的朋友

本文章刊登在CHINA DAILY-艾問專欄

砸錢、上市、套現，資本市場的「暴力美學」讓人著迷。

First, acquire a large amount of financing, then get public listed and cash out – this seems like an intriguing pattern on the capital market.

從2017年開始，中國科技類企業掀起了第三次上市潮。2018年上半年，中國TMT企業IPO共計26家，融資金額達578億元，同比猛增124%。其中，工業富聯（富士康）、愛奇藝和嗶哩嗶哩（B站）三家企業IPO募資規模在今年上半年所有上市TMT企業中排名前三，三起IPO融資額佔到上半年中國TMT企業融資總額的77%。

Since 2017, the Chinese tech companies experienced three waves of IPOs. On the first half of 2018, 26 TMT firms in China has went public, financed as much as 57.8 billion RMB, a huge increase of 124% on year-on-year basis. 77% of the total TMT financing amount comes from the top three players -- Foxconn Industrial, iQiyi and Bilibili.

創始人十位數的身價、投資人近百倍的回報、8家上市公司同一天敲響港交所的鑼……都像一支支興奮劑一樣，注入到創投市場。

10 digital net-worth for the founder, 100x returns for investors, 8 firms went public listed on the same day on HKEX-- all the news is like adrenaline shots, injecting into the venture capital market one after another.

但藥物的刺激、市場的亢奮並不能阻擋中國資本市場的寒潮。上證指數的持續萎靡、上市企業的接連破發，理性的投資人看到的更多是資本危機的一步步迫近。

However, despite these adrenaline surges on the Chinese capital market, they did not stop the winter from coming. Shanghai Composite Index continues to slump, several firms fall on its first day of trading, rational investors are expecting a capital crisis to come.

原來只要在風口上砸夠錢，就能孵化出頭部公司，然後獲得十倍、百倍甚至千倍的回報。但是當風口過去，融資環境驟變，資本市場的「關門效應」出現，融資難、資產交易難、上市難、退出難。

In the past, as long as enough money is invested on the trending topics, the top players are incubated to gain 10x and even 100x to 1000x returns. However, when the hype is gone, financing environment suddenly changes, and the knock-on effect of the capital market kicks in. Then, it gets hard to do financing, hard to do transactions, hard toget listed, and hard to exit.

如何在資本市場繁榮時保持理性睿智，在資本寒潮來臨時傲然挺立，成了投資人最常問的問題。

How to remain rational and clear-headed in the prosperous times and also to survive and thrive during the difficult times of the capital markets are common questions investors have to answer.

「時間是投資者最好的朋友」。信中利資本集團董事長汪潮湧給出了他的答案，最近幾年信中利的聲音似乎少了很多，汪潮湧淡然地說：「這個市場沒有人做得到一家通吃。市場需要不同風格的存在，我們的定位是追求投精品和回報，不追求規模。」

"Time is the best friend of an investor."Wang Chaoyong, the CEO of ChinaEquity Group gave his answer. In recent years, people seem to hear less about the ChinaEquity Group. Regarding that, Wang Chaoyong took it lightly and commented that "no one can "get-it-all" in this market". He said, "The market needs investors with different styles and strategies. Our position is to invest the best firms with the highest returns. We do not go for the largest scale."

失敗了就繼續往前走，就像航海一樣，前面永遠有最好的風景。不要在乎那些失敗的投資，投資就是要做到無怨、無悔、無懼。

Continue moving forward even if you failed this time. Just like sailing, the best sceneries are always ahead of you. Do not care about the failed investments. For this business, it is about having no complaints, no regrets, and no fears.

本期艾問頂級人物，艾問創始人艾誠對話「創投教父」汪潮湧，領略他的投資人生，讀懂一個投資人的抉擇與取捨。

This week"s iAsk Leader, Gloria Ai is having a conversation with the "VC Godfather", Wang Chaongyong to discuss his life as an investor, and the choices and trade-offs he made.

艾誠：您如何評價前半生的投資？

Gloria Ai:How do you evaluate all the investments you made so far for the first half of your life？

汪潮湧：我覺得投資是我這一輩子最好的選擇，也是我最喜歡的職業，是我畢生追求的事業。因為在中國的經濟改革中、大潮裡頭，用資本、用投資去扶持一批創業家，幫助他們實現他們的理想，同時為社會創造收益，創造稅收、就業，我覺得這就是一個合格的投資人的一個定位。

Wang Chaoyong:I think becoming an investor is the best choice of my life. It is my favorite kind of job, and a career I will pursue my whole life. Riding the waves of China"s economic reforms, employing capital and investment to help entrepreneurs to realize their dreams, while creating income, tax revenue and jobs for the society, I think these are things a qualified investor should position himself in.

艾誠：投資必定是成敗的組合，因為有一個二八法則。看一個基金管理的項目，如果有20%存活，甚至是有回報的話，這個基金就是一個很棒的基金了，也就是必定還有80%我們會認為是失敗的或者不那麼成功的。

Gloria Ai:Investing is a combination of successes and failures, as there is a 20/80 rule. For a fund, if 20% of its investment survives, or even has some return, it is already a great fund. That means, there must be 80% left that are deem to fail or are relatively unsuccessful.

汪潮湧：你這個二八法則應該是這麼理解。就是說在投資圈子裡頭，80%的利潤和回報被20%的好的機構或者是好項目賺走了。

Wang Chaoyang:Your 20/80 rule should be understood in this way – in the VC circle, 80% of the profits and returns are earned by the best 20% deals or organizations.

作為一個領先的創投機構，我們就要瞄準那個20%這個領域或者是20%的項目，作為每支基金的話，我們不能有那麼高的失敗率，我覺得應該十個項目里有兩個失敗，其他八個裡面可能有兩個很成功的，其他有幾個普通的，但是不能有80%的失敗率，那個失敗率太高了。

To be a leading VC, we need to aim at the sector or projects that are the best 20%. For every fund we have, we cannot have such a high failure rate. I think for every 10 deals, 2 of them can fail. Among the rest 8 deals, maybe 2 of them are very successful, the other ones are normal. But we can"t have a 80% failing rate. That is too high.

艾誠：但投資的智慧都是要從倒霉的項目裡面鍛鍊出來的。

Gloria Ai:But the wisdom comes from the unlucky deals.

汪潮湧：確實是這樣。

Wang Chaoyong:Indeed, that is true.

艾誠：什麼樣的項目在您投資的歷程中是特別糟糕的，以後堅決不涉及了？

Gloria Ai:Throughout your career, what kind of deals were the worst, which you will definitely not get involved again?

汪潮湧：最糟糕的例子我還沒有碰到，但是有遺憾。比如說早期那時候我們剛成立的時候，資金不足，所以在投資的範圍只是局限在北京，所以我們投到了百度，投到了搜狐，但是沒有投到杭州的阿里，沒有投到深圳的騰訊，這是很大的一個遺憾。

Wang Chaoyang:I haven"t met the worst, but I have my regrets. For instance, when we just started, we were lack of capital, so the investment was limited in Beijing area.Therefore, we found and invested in Baidu and Sohu, but we did not invest in Alibaba from Hangzhou or Tencent from Shenzhen. This is a huge regret.

再一個就是後來的這幾個互聯網浪潮里，我們沒有去跟。比如說在電商這個領域，我們錯掉了美團、大眾點評這種好項目。

Another regret is the subsequent waves of the internet economy, which we did not follow. For instance, regarding the E-commerce sector, we missed great deals such as Meituan or Dianping.

艾誠：就像您所說的，時間是檢驗的最好標準，是嗎？

Gloria Ai:Just as you said, time is the best way to prove who is right.

汪潮湧：沒錯，時間是投資者的最好的朋友，也是投資機構最好的朋友。過去在創投領域，矽谷總是能夠募到特別長的資金，十年，甚至十年以上。在中國，3+2，五年到頭了，非常不利於長期持有好的項目。

Wang Chaoyang:Correct,time is the best friend for an investor, as well as for investment organizations.Because in the past, the Silicon Valley VCs can operate a fund for 10 years or even longer.In China, it is the 3+2 mode, which means a maximum 5 years of holding period. This is bad for holding good deals for over along period of time.

別看我們研究國內這個風口、那個風口，可是他們持有的時間都很短，很少有超過七年的，更沒有超過十年的。可是恰恰在中國，投資最成功的兩個項目，MIH投資騰訊，軟銀投資了阿里，都是持有超過十六七年，最後創造了上千億美金的回報。

People in China focus on chasing "the next big thing", but as you can see, they actually do not hold their investments for long. Very few exceeded 7 years, and none exceeded 10 years. However, the two most successful deals are made by MIH from South Africa"s for their investment in Tencent and Softbank investing in Alibaba. They both held for over 16, 17 years and created returns exceeding 100 billion dollars.

所以，這就是創投行業和投資控股行業的區別。我們應該探索的是，為什麼中國的創投機構投了那麼多好的項目，最後沒有一家成為軟銀或者是MIH，我們當年投百度，五年122倍，我們賣掉了，但我要是拿到現在，可能接近一千倍。

So this is the difference between venture investment and equity investment. What we should find out is that Chinese VCs has invested in so many great deals, but why none of them became a Softbank or MIH? Back then, we invested in Baidu and got a 122x returnin five years and we sold our shares. But if I would have kept it until now, it would be close to 1000x.

艾誠：在現在大眾創業、萬眾創新，人人都創業、人人都投資的年代，一個項目投資之後的退市，一個項目之後的這個上市和退出越來越難。

Gloria Ai:Right now everyone is founding a startup or working on innovation topics. In the era which everyone is founding or investing, it gets harder and harder for a deal (investment) to get public-listed and exit.

汪潮湧：確實是這樣。因為在中國，兩千多萬家中小企業總共只有不到五千家的主板上市公司，一萬家的新三板，加起來一共一萬五千家，和兩千萬的公司相比，這是非常小的一部分。所以，上市、退出肯定是非常非常難的一件事。

Wang Chaoyong:Indeed. Because in China, out of over 20 million SMEs, a total of less than 5 thousand firms are listed on the Main Board and 10 thousand firms on the "New Three Board" - a total of 15 thousand companies. Comparing with 15 to 20 million firms in total, it is a very small share. Therefore,getting publicly-listed and exit is for sure a rare thing.

現在作為證監會，他們最擔心的是這麼多的VC和PE，投的公司上完市以後，VC和PE都要退、減持，這樣對二級市場造成了巨大的減持壓力。所以，他們現在也出各種各樣的政策來限制減持。我覺得這個最好的解決方案就是讓這些投資機構能上市的上市，能借殼的借殼，這樣的話，他們就不急於減持他們投的項目。

As for the CSRC (China Securities Regulatory Commission), what they worry the most is, that there are so many VCs and PEs who would sell their shares after the deals go on IPO, which will give huge pressure to the secondary market. So now, they are also making all kinds of policies to limit companies from reducing their shares.I think the best solution is to make these investment organizations either get listed themselves or through a shell. Therefore they will not be in hurry to reduce the shares of their investments.

艾誠：美團的王興說了，現在已經是中國互聯網的下半場了。您覺得也進入下半場了嗎？要面臨大量的清算倒閉嗎？

Gloria Ai:As Wang Xing from Meituan said, this is already the second half game for the Chinese Internet. Do you also think we have entered the second half of the game, facing lots of clearing and closedowns?

汪潮湧：還不到這個時候吧，我覺得再等個三五年。因為現在很多的基金都是處於一個投完以後的等待期。

Wang Chaoyong:I think not yet, maybe in 3 to 5 years. Because many funds now have invested all the money and are waiting for returns.

艾誠：五年之後見分曉，兩到三年的一個存續期，是吧？

Gloria Ai:So we will see in five years, there are still two to three years left for the duration of the fund, right?

汪潮湧：是的。

Wang Chaoyong:Yes.

艾誠：您預判會有什麼樣的結局？

Gloria Ai:What do you think will come?

汪潮湧：會有很多的機構被淘汰掉，就像互聯網創業一樣。

Wang Chaoyong:There will be lots of VCs that are being phased-out, just like the internet startups.

艾誠：誰會留下？

Gloria Ai:Who will stay?

汪潮湧：有規模的，有退出記錄的，有募資能力的，有品牌的，有經驗的團隊。

Wang Chaoyong:The large ones, the ones with good exit records, with fundraising abilities, with a good brand name and an experienced team.

艾誠：什麼樣的投資人會留下？

Gloria Ai:What kind of investors will stay?

汪潮湧：這些機構領軍的投資人都會留下。

Wang Chaoyang:The investors from these organizations will stay.

艾誠：他們有什麼共同的屬性？

Gloria Ai:What are the common things about them?

汪潮湧：有深厚的產業背景，有深厚的投資背景，有廣泛的人脈資源，更重要的是有非常好的學習能力、與時俱進的這些投資人會留下。

Wang Chaoyang:The investors who have a deep industrial and investment background, good networks and most importantly, fast learning abilities and who are keeping up with the times will stay.

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