疲態！蘋果收入持續下滑 庫克欲將問題甩給中國市場

新年新氣象，祝大家2019年新年快樂。不過，顯然有些企業在新的一年裡並不快樂，例如時常受人詬病「喜新厭舊」的蘋果公司，一個罕見的銷售預測正讓蘋果公司的高層們冷汗不已。

蘋果公司首席執行官蒂姆·庫克（Tim Cook）在周三致所有投資人的信中宣布，將降低第一財季（2018年Q4）的業績預期。目前蘋果公司的實際收入僅為840億美元，遠低於11月所預期的890-940億美元的收入範圍。其毛利率目前預計為38%，低於之前預測的38%-38.5%，這預示著蘋果公司的主要收入，將由高端產品逐漸轉向低端、低利潤的產品。

但顯然，蘋果公司並沒有打算從自身尋找問題原因，而是選擇將問題全部歸咎於中國市場。

蘋果公司表示這一次出現的財政問題，並不在於美國本身，而是「大中華地區」出現了問題。庫克認為，是中國市場的經濟環境受到了中美貿易緊張局勢的進一步影響、以及蘋果公司2018年允諾的低價換電池延長換機周期所導致的，並指責相關運營商降低了對蘋果系列產品的補貼。

雖然蘋果公司更願意相信是智能手機市場發展的局勢放緩，導致了對其自身以及三星等其它品牌大公司的影響。但來自Global Data的分析師卻認為，顯然是蘋果公司的疏忽，沒有充分考慮到來自中國華為、OPPO、一加等品牌在國際市場上帶來的競爭壓力。雖然蘋果公司確實在中國市場擁有強大的特許經營權，但這並不意味著可以讓它免於品牌競爭，加之iPhone新系列銷售策略的失敗，才促成了蘋果公司目前這樣尷尬的局面。

2018年是移動端科技發展迅速的一年，眾多國產手機品牌快速崛起並進一步升級。即使不提蘋果系列產品，僅從國內各大品牌競爭來看，戰場依然是硝煙瀰漫，而2018年所淘汰的國內品牌並不在少數，留下來的都是精英中的精英。

國內品牌不再像以前那樣沒有核心技術以及競爭力，只有適者才能生存。無論國內外品牌也好，背景如何也好，只有最有核心競爭力的品牌才可以好好的活下去，這還需要建立在受到廣大消費者認可的基礎之上，所以蘋果公司收入下滑的黑鍋，顯然不可能由國內市場來背的。或者說蘋果公司目前出現的問題，是因為國產品牌的興起，開始逐步顛覆蘋果公司在全球地位所造成的。

以下是蘋果公司庫克致所有投資人的信全文：

「To Apple investors:

Today we are revising our guidance for Apple"s fiscal 2019 first quarter, which ended on December 29. We now expect the following:

? Revenue of approximately $84 billion

? Gross margin of approximately 38 percent

? Operating expenses of approximately $8.7 billion

? Other income/(expense) of approximately $550 million

? Tax rate of approximately 16.5 percent before discrete items

We expect the number of shares used in computing diluted EPS to be approximately 4.77 billion.

Based on these estimates, our revenue will be lower than our original guidance for the quarter, with other items remaining broadly in line with our guidance.

While it will be a number of weeks before we complete and report our final results, we wanted to get some preliminary information to you now. Our final results may differ somewhat from these preliminary estimates.

When we discussed our Q1 guidance with you about 60 days ago, we knew the first quarter would be impacted by both macroeconomic and Apple-specific factors. Based on our best estimates of how these would play out, we predicted that we would report slight revenue growth year-over-year for the quarter. As you may recall, we discussed four factors:

First, we knew the different timing of our iPhone launches would affect our year-over-year compares. Our top models, iPhone XS and iPhone XS Max, shipped in Q4"18 — placing the channel fill and early sales in that quarter, whereas last year iPhone X shipped in Q1"18, placing the channel fill and early sales in the December quarter. We knew this would create a difficult compare for Q1"19, and this played out broadly in line with our expectations.

Second, we knew the strong US dollar would create foreign exchange headwinds and forecasted this would reduce our revenue growth by about 200 basis points as compared to the previous year. This also played out broadly in line with our expectations.

Third, we knew we had an unprecedented number of new products to ramp during the quarter and predicted that supply constraints would gate our sales of certain products during Q1. Again, this also played out broadly in line with our expectations. Sales of Apple Watch Series 4 and iPad Pro were constrained much or all of the quarter. AirPods and MacBook Air were also constrained.

Fourth, we expected economic weakness in some emerging markets. This turned out to have a significantly greater impact than we had projected.

In addition, these and other factors resulted in fewer iPhone upgrades than we had anticipated.

These last two points have led us to reduce our revenue guidance. I"d like to go a bit deeper on both.

Emerging Market Challenges

While we anticipated some challenges in key emerging markets, we did not foresee the magnitude of the economic deceleration, particularly in Greater China. In fact, most of our revenue shortfall to our guidance, and over 100 percent of our year-over-year worldwide revenue decline, occurred in Greater China across iPhone, Mac and iPad.

China"s economy began to slow in the second half of 2018. The government-reported GDP growth during the September quarter was the second lowest in the last 25 years. We believe the economic environment in China has been further impacted by rising trade tensions with the United States. As the climate of mounting uncertainty weighed on financial markets, the effects appeared to reach consumers as well, with traffic to our retail stores and our channel partners in China declining as the quarter progressed. And market data has shown that the contraction in Greater China"s smartphone market has been particularly sharp.

Despite these challenges, we believe that our business in China has a bright future. The iOS developer community in China is among the most innovative, creative and vibrant in the world. Our products enjoy a strong following among customers, with a very high level of engagement and satisfaction. Our results in China include a new record for Services revenue, and our installed base of devices grew over the last year. We are proud to participate in the Chinese marketplace.

iPhone

Lower than anticipated iPhone revenue, primarily in Greater China, accounts for all of our revenue shortfall to our guidance and for much more than our entire year-over-year revenue decline. In fact, categories outside of iPhone (Services, Mac, iPad, Wearables/Home/Accessories) combined to grow almost 19 percent year-over-year.

While Greater China and other emerging markets accounted for the vast majority of the year-over-year iPhone revenue decline, in some developed markets, iPhone upgrades also were not as strong as we thought they would be. While macroeconomic challenges in some markets were a key contributor to this trend, we believe there are other factors broadly impacting our iPhone performance, including consumers adapting to a world with fewer carrier subsidies, US dollar strength-related price increases, and some customers taking advantage of significantly reduced pricing for iPhone battery replacements.

Many Positive Results in the December Quarter

While it"s disappointing to revise our guidance, our performance in many areas showed remarkable strength in spite of these challenges.

Our installed base of active devices hit a new all-time high — growing by more than 100 million units in 12 months. There are more Apple devices being used than ever before, and it"s a testament to the ongoing loyalty, satisfaction and engagement of our customers.

Also, as I mentioned earlier, revenue outside of our iPhone business grew by almost 19 percent year-over-year, including all-time record revenue from Services, Wearables and Mac. Our non-iPhone businesses have less exposure to emerging markets, and the vast majority of Services revenue is related to the size of the installed base, not current period sales.

Services generated over $10.8 billion in revenue during the quarter, growing to a new quarterly record in every geographic segment, and we are on track to achieve our goal of doubling the size of this business from 2016 to 2020.

Wearables grew by almost 50 percent year-over-year, as Apple Watch and AirPods were wildly popular among holiday shoppers; launches of MacBook Air and Mac mini powered the Mac to year-over-year revenue growth and the launch of the new iPad Pro drove iPad to year-over-year double-digit revenue growth.

We also expect to set all-time revenue records in several developed countries, including the United States, Canada, Germany, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands and Korea. And, while we saw challenges in some emerging markets, others set records, including Mexico, Poland, Malaysia and Vietnam.

Finally, we also expect to report a new all-time record for Apple"s earnings per share.

Looking Ahead

Our profitability and cash flow generation are strong, and we expect to exit the quarter with approximately $130 billion in net cash. As we have stated before, we plan to become net-cash neutral over time.

As we exit a challenging quarter, we are as confident as ever in the fundamental strength of our business. We manage Apple for the long term, and Apple has always used periods of adversity to re-examine our approach, to take advantage of our culture of flexibility, adaptability and creativity, and to emerge better as a result.

Most importantly, we are confident and excited about our pipeline of future products and services. Apple innovates like no other company on earth, and we are not taking our foot off the gas.

We can"t change macroeconomic conditions, but we are undertaking and accelerating other initiatives to improve our results. One such initiative is making it simple to trade in a phone in our stores, finance the purchase over time, and get help transferring data from the current to the new phone. This is not only great for the environment, it is great for the customer, as their existing phone acts as a subsidy for their new phone, and it is great for developers, as it can help grow our installed base.

This is one of a number of steps we are taking to respond. We can make these adjustments because Apple"s strength is in our resilience, the talent and creativity of our team, and the deeply held passion for the work we do every day.

Expectations are high for Apple because they should be. We are committed to exceeding those expectations every day.

That has always been the Apple way, and it always will be.

Tim」

精彩資訊報道，專業視頻評測，盡在聚牛科技

喜歡這篇文章嗎？立刻分享出去讓更多人知道吧！