英國民意撕裂嚴重，蘇格蘭死磕要「獨立」
Some sort of Scottish independence is inevitable
某種形式的蘇格蘭獨立是不可避免的
來源：《衛報》 翻譯：世界播
Scotland』s first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, yesterday reiterated her promise to give her country another referendum on independence within the next two years. After all, if there』s an argument for Britons having another Brexit referendum just three years after the last, Scotland can surely have another on independence after five years. Besides, Sturgeon must be thinking, was there ever a better moment for divorce from a marriage so dysfunctional as the United Kingdom?
蘇格蘭首席大臣尼古拉?斯特金昨日重申，她將在未來兩年內就蘇格蘭獨立問題再次舉行公投。畢竟，如果有人認為英國人應該再次舉行脫歐公投，而上一次公投距離現在僅三年時間，那麼蘇格蘭肯定可以在五年後再舉行一次獨立公投。此外，斯特金一定在想，從英國現在這樣一個功能失調的混亂局面中分離，難道還有比這更好的時機嗎？
Some might wonder what new horror history could unleash on poor Britain. The weekend』s polls put her SNP』s lead over all other parties at between 23 and 26 points, astonishing for a governing party that has been in office for 12 years, with Sturgeon as its leader for five. In that time, the popularity of Scottish independence has risen to an unprecedented 49% support. With an electorate that strongly rejected leaving the EU, Sturgeon reasonably calculates that this is the moment to strike. The difficulties of the Northern Ireland backstop will pale into insignificance beside an Edinburgh one.
有些人可能想知道，英國新的恐怖歷史會給這個貧窮的國家帶來什麼。上周末的民調顯示，斯特金所在的蘇格蘭民族黨領先其他所有政黨23至26個百分點，這對於一個執政12年、由斯特金擔任5年黨魁的執政黨來說，這相當令人訝異。在此期間，蘇格蘭獨立的支持率達到了前所未有的49%。鑒於選民強烈反對脫離歐盟，斯特金有理由認為，現在是搞獨立的時候了。與愛丁堡的困難相比，北愛爾蘭的困難將變得微不足道。
Scottish nationalism is not going to die. Sooner or later, Scotland will get an independence of some sort, if only because devolution/partition is the direction of travel in an over-centralised Europe. In every country – Germany, Italy, France, Britain and Spain – the great postwar political families are disintegrating. Party blocs no longer correspond to class or economic interest. Minority loyalties are re-emerging.
蘇格蘭民族主義不會消亡。蘇格蘭遲早會獲得某種形式的獨立，這僅僅是因為權力下放（分權）/分治是已走向過度中央集權的歐洲目前的發展趨勢。在每個歐洲國家——德國、義大利、法國、英國，以及西班牙，戰後偉大的政治家族都布都在分崩離析。政黨集團不再與階級或經濟利益相對應。少數民族主義的忠誠者們正在重新湧現。
The fate of the United Kingdom, and not Brexit, is the cardinal issue of current British politics. Sturgeon is about to present London with a direct challenge: permit another legal referendum or we will find ways of staging one ourselves. During that of 2014, David Cameron bribed the Scots with more devolution and a safeguarded exchequer subsidy under the Barnett formula. It worked. Sturgeon would vastly enhance her case – not least with wider British opinion – if she renounced the subsidy, and talked the details of an oil, taxation and customs union deal with a post-Brexit London.
英國未來的命運，才是當前英國政治的核心問題，而非英國退歐這件事。斯特金即將給倫敦帶來一個直接的挑戰：要麼允許再次舉行合法的公投，要麼我們自己想辦法舉行公投。2014年，戴維?卡梅倫根據「巴內特公式」，用更大力度的權力下放（分權）和一項有保障的財政補貼討好蘇格蘭人。它奏效了。如果斯特金宣布放棄補貼，並與英國退歐後的倫敦就一項有關石油、稅收和關稅聯盟協議的細節進行討論，那麼她將給她的蘇格蘭獨立理由注入極大地支撐力量，尤其是在更廣泛的英國民意輿論中。
The concept of independence is now as entrenched in Anglo-Scottish relations as it was in Anglo-Irish ones before 1921. But as with Brexit, independent does not mean 「independent」. It means shades of good neighbourliness, as has been forged with Ireland. The validity, let alone the stability, of Britain』s Celtic empire has never been resolved. It would stand to Theresa May』s credit if she now gave 「independence-lite」 the same attention she is being forced to give Brexit-soft.
獨立的概念現在在盎格魯-蘇格蘭關係中根深蒂固，就像1921年以前在盎格魯-愛爾蘭關係中一樣。但與英國退歐一樣，獨立並不意味著「對立」。它意味著繼續保持睦鄰友好的關係，就像與愛爾蘭建立的那樣。英國凱爾特帝國的合法性從未得到解決，更不用說其穩定性了。如果特雷莎?梅現在像對待退歐派那樣，對「程度相對較低的獨立性」給予同樣的關注，那將是她的功勞。
TAG:世界播 |