英媒：「脫歐」問題無解，誰當首相都沒用

The issue of Europe will kill off the next prime minister too, just like every Tory leader before them

歐洲問題也會扼殺下一任英國首相，就像英國之前的每一位保守黨領袖一樣

來源：英國《獨立報》 翻譯：世界播

Like Dettol used to kill off all known germs, Europe has a habit of killing off all known Conservative Party leaders. Theresa May is only the latest in a long and pitiful line of failures, unable to lead a party when it no longer wants to be led. There is a no reason to believe that her successor, whoever he or she turns out to be, will have any more luck than May did (or Cameron, Hague, Major, Thatcher...). Quite the opposite.

就像「滴露」消毒液被用來消滅所有已知細菌一樣，歐洲也有消滅所有現任保守黨領袖的習慣。特雷莎?梅只是一長串令人遺憾的失敗者中的最新一位，她無法領導一個不想再被領導的政黨。而且也沒有理由相信她的繼任者，無論他或她是誰，會比梅(或卡梅倫、黑格、少校、撒切爾……)更幸運。現實恰恰相反。

To use one of her more baleful catchphrases, when the new leader is selected and takes their commission to form a government from the Queen it will soon be apparent that 「nothing has changed」.

用她一句更惡毒的口頭禪來說，當新領導人被選出並接受他們的委託從女王手中組建新政府時，很快就會非常清楚地看到，「什麼都沒有改變」。

If the Tories choose a hard Brexiteer – any of Boris Johnson, Dominic Raab, Esther McVey, Liz Truss, Andrea Leadsom – they still won』t be able to get such a hard Brexit on World Trade Organisation (WTO) terms through the House of Commons, even if they reconstruct the administration with a hard Brexit cabinet and sack the likes of Philip Hammond, David Gauke and Greg Clark.

如果保守黨選擇強硬的退歐者鮑里斯?約翰遜、多米尼克?拉布、埃斯特?麥克維、利茲?特魯斯、安德里亞?利德索姆中的任何一位，即使他們重組一個含有「硬脫歐」內閣的英國政府，並解僱菲利普?哈蒙德、戴維?高克和格雷格?克拉克等人，他們也無法在下議院通過一項在世界貿易組織條款下達成的「硬脫歐」協議。

Another solution to the parliamentary impasse is to hold a general election, with every likelihood of another hung parliament and the whole pantomime starting up again. If the Tories end up losing badly to Labour, then prime minister Boris Johnson would have to quit – the shortest tenure in No 10 in modern history. A brief, spectacular, but ultimately futile adventure that will bequeath a wonderful memoir but not much else. Europe will have claimed a fresh victim.

議會僵局的另一種解決方案是舉行大選，很有可能出現另一個無多數席位的議會，整個啞劇表演將再次上演。如果保守黨最終慘敗給工黨，那麼英國首相鮑里斯?約翰遜將不得不辭職，他或許就成了英國近代史上任期最短的首相。這是一次短暫的、壯觀的、但最終徒勞無功的冒險，或許還會被撰寫成一本精彩的回憶錄，但也僅限此而已。歐洲將迎來一個新的受害者。

How about a soft Brexiteer – someone who can 「do something」 with May』s deal? Improve it; refine it; use clever stratagems to get it through the Commons? Maybe Jeremy Hunt, Michael Gove, Sajid Javid or Amber Rudd have the necessary skills? Or maybe, as is the truth, the logic and parliamentary realities will soon overwhelm them too.

一個溫和的脫歐派怎麼樣？這個人能對梅的協議「有所作為」嗎？改進這項協議；重新精鍊它；用巧妙又富有智慧的策略讓它在下議院獲得通過？或許傑里米?亨特、邁克爾?戈夫、賽義德?賈維德或安布爾?拉德都具備這種必要的技能？或者，就像事實一樣，邏輯和議會現實很快也會壓倒他們。

Now, no Tory leadership contender is going to openly advocate Remain. Of course not. But maybe one or two of them might face up to reality and state the obvious – that the only way through Brexit is to put the issue to the people.

現在，沒有任何一位保守黨領袖競爭者會公開支持留歐。當然不會。但或許他們中的一兩個人可能會直面現實，並陳述一個顯而易見的事實，那就是英國退歐的唯一途徑就是把這個問題提交給廣大民眾。

Thus far only Rory Stewart – an attractively open, articulate and fresh-faced contender, a kind of reborn Tony Blair for the Tories – has even hinted that the facts of the situation may mean that such an outcome is inevitable. If he, or someone like him, could guide his party, the Commons and the country through such a course he will have done everyone a huge service.

迄今為止，只有羅里?斯圖爾特敢於去暗示，當前的形勢可能意味著，這樣的結果是不可避免的。羅里?斯圖爾特性格開朗、口齒伶俐，是保守黨里猶如托尼?布萊爾重生人物的新生代表。如果他，或者像他這樣的人，能夠帶領他的政黨、下議院和國家走過這條路，他將為每個人都做出巨大的貢獻。

The snag, of course, is that the Conservative grassroots would never accept such a candidate because they would, given the chance, prefer to have Nigel Farage leading the party than any of the long list of names currently being canvassed – perhaps even including Boris. Which leaves the overwhelming probability that the next Tory leader and prime minister will, just like May, fail to make sense of the inherent contradictions of Brexit.

當然，問題在於，保守黨草根階層永遠不會接受這樣的候選人，因為如果有機會，他們寧願讓奈傑爾?法拉奇領導該黨，也不願讓目前正在接受審議的一長串候選人中的任何一個來接手，這其中甚至可能包括鮑里斯。因此，下一任保守黨領袖和首相極有可能像梅一樣，無法理解英國退歐的內在矛盾。

In which case, then, Boris or Sajid or Amber or Jeremy will join a monumental Conservative funeral pyre constructed over more than half a century. In summary, it comprises: Theresa May – pushed out by her backbenchers on Europe by the summer of 2019; David Cameron – lost the European referendum of 2016; William Hague – lost 2001 election partly due to splits over policy on the euro; John Major – administration wrecked by Maastricht divisions and the 「bastards」, crushed by Blair in 1997; Margaret Thatcher – in 1990, partly because of splits on joining the European Exchange Rate Mechanism and her militant Euroscepticism.

在這種情況下，鮑里斯、賽義德、安布爾或傑里米都將進入一座建造了半個多世紀不朽的保守派火葬場。概括起來，這些「先烈者們」包括：特雷莎?梅——到2019年夏天，她將被她的歐洲后座議員們趕下台；戴維?卡梅倫——在2016年的歐洲公投中落敗；威廉?黑格——2001年大選失利，部分原因是在歐元政策上出現了分歧；瑪格麗特?撒切爾——1990年當選英國首相，在歐洲失敗的部分原因是由於在加入歐洲匯率機制問題上存在某些分歧，以及她激進的歐洲懷疑主義。

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